2024 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[limster]

By now your overall portfolio should have recouped all the losses of the previous year. If not, then something is not working.

yup - those who were red in 2022 and then red again in 2023 need to recheck their investment strategy - or maybe give up and just buy MSCI World.

I have semi-given up on stock picking, so 50% of my investing this year is probably doing market timing on Vanguard World or Vanguard World High Dividend ETFs

 

[DevilPlate]

We are transitioning back to a period similar to the Greenspan years. The 60-40 portfolio was created by Dalio for that market regime and will probably work quite well.

No more higher forever?

 

[DevilPlate]

yup - those who were red in 2022 and then red again in 2023 need to recheck their investment strategy - or maybe give up and just buy MSCI World.

I have semi-given up on stock picking, so 50% of my investing this year is probably doing market timing on Vanguard World or Vanguard World High Dividend ETF

VHYL is 15% wht?

 

[limster]

VHYL is 15% wht?

for the US stocks inside the ETF, yes.

 

[wutawa]

yup - those who were red in 2022 and then red again in 2023 need to recheck their investment strategy - or maybe give up and just buy MSCI World.

I have semi-given up on stock picking, so 50% of my investing this year is probably doing market timing on Vanguard World or Vanguard World High Dividend ETFs

2021 +$25k
2022 -$25k
2023 +$18k

 

[revhappy]

2021 +$25k
2022 -$25k
2023 +$18k

I thought those are percentage figures.

 

[revhappy]

USD has fallen a lot while US 6 month T bill still offer 5.5%. I think good time to convert to USD and hide in T bill whil waiting for a dip.

 

[stanlawj]

USD has fallen a lot while US 6 month T bill still offer 5.5%. I think good time to convert to USD and hide in T bill whil waiting for a dip.

yup... i'm buying USD with SGD since 1.35.... waiting for USDSGD to drop below 1.33 to convert last five figures amount.

 

[churnmaster]

Indian markets make another ATH.

@revhappy, your India investments must be doing great.

 

[revhappy]

Indian markets make another ATH.

@revhappy, your India investments must be doing great.

Yes, but I have about 15% of my networth in Indian equities, so it doesn't move the needle a lot. How much is your Indian equities allocation?

 

[churnmaster]

Yes, but I have about 15% of my networth in Indian equities, so it doesn't move the needle a lot. How much is your Indian equities allocation?

Oh ok . . Mine is low to mid 5 figures.

 

[revhappy]

I am surprised 2nd largest economy in the world, with all their might to compete with US economically and millitary wise, can't they take care of fixing their stock market for the sake of their own country men and businesses?If it is a sharp technical fall and bounceback then it is okay. I am in total disbelief, on the length of duration of this Chinese markets correction.

It now feels like just a mathematical question; Everyday if the Chinese stock markets fall by 1-2%, how long before it hits zero.

 

[stanlawj]

I am surprised 2nd largest economy in the world, with all their might to compete with US economically and millitary wise, can't they take care of fixing their stock market for the sake of their own country men and businesses?If it is a sharp technical fall and bounceback then it is okay. I am in total disbelief, on the length of duration of this Chinese markets correction.

It now feels like just a mathematical question; Everyday if the Chinese stock markets fall by 1-2%, how long before it hits zero.

For decades, money poured into China from rich Western countries.
Now they are exiting. It doesn't matter what Xi is doing because China is now perceived as an enemy of G-7 (even Germany is waffling).

In contrast, rich Western countries ignored India.
Now they are pouring money in there.

To put it simply: China: over-owned. India: under-owned.

Whenever price defies fundamentals, it just means that herding behaviour is now taking over. I have encountered this many times, best not to fight the market or rationalising herd behaviour. I may have to cut my China A-share unit trust position (-10% now).

 

[churnmaster]

I am surprised 2nd largest economy in the world, with all their might to compete with US economically and millitary wise, can't they take care of fixing their stock market for the sake of their own country men and businesses?If it is a sharp technical fall and bounceback then it is okay. I am in total disbelief, on the length of duration of this Chinese markets correction.

It now feels like just a mathematical question; Everyday if the Chinese stock markets fall by 1-2%, how long before it hits zero.

Everything boils down to leadership. In a democracy, there would be protests (sometimes violent) by now and the leadership would be forced to step down. However, in a communist setup, people won’t dare to protest because of the dire consequences.

Feel sorry for the countrymen. They have suffered economic hardship for none of their faults.

Here too, the China permabulls are licking their wounds as they are caught wrong footed.

 

[stanlawj]

Feels like a forced liquidation of some institutional fund, or holdings in China/HK stocks.

 

[churnmaster]

For decades, money poured into China from rich Western countries.
Now they are exiting. It doesn't matter what Xi is doing because China is now perceived as an enemy of G-7 (even Germany is waffling).

In contrast, rich Western countries ignored India.
Now they are pouring money in there.

To put it simply: China: over-owned. India: under-owned.

Whenever price defies fundamentals, it just means that herding behaviour is now taking over. I have encountered this many times, best not to fight the market or rationalising herd behaviour. I may have to cut my China A-share unit trust position (-10% now).

The money is flowing in for a reason. Here too, leadership matters.

While the FPI (hot) money has definitely poured in, it’s the domestic money that has been acting as a counter balance every time the FPI money gets pulled out of the Indian markets. The domestic participation is increasing by the day and that’s a very positive thing, a reflection of the domestic investors confidence in their economy. Of course, when the markets diverge too far from the other foreign markets, there could be sharp pullbacks but for now the macros and the flows are supporting the markets. Further, we are heading into General Elections in less than 6 months time when the current administration is expected to consolidate its position.

 

[peachmouse]

I am surprised 2nd largest economy in the world, with all their might to compete with US economically and millitary wise, can't they take care of fixing their stock market for the sake of their own country men and businesses?If it is a sharp technical fall and bounceback then it is okay. I am in total disbelief, on the length of duration of this Chinese markets correction.

It now feels like just a mathematical question; Everyday if the Chinese stock markets fall by 1-2%, how long before it hits zero.

S&P 500 had negative returns for 3 consecutive years in 2000-2002.

CSI 300 returns are negative since 2021. Nothing surprising. Stock markets can have prolonged periods of negative returns.

 

[d5dude]

S&P 500 had negative returns for 3 consecutive years in 2000-2002.

CSI 300 returns are negative since 2021. Nothing surprising. Stock markets can have prolonged periods of negative returns.

CSI300 returns are negative since 2009, I dun think this is just a blip or correction when a market's returns are this bad over such a long period of time (~15 years).

My only exposure to China is via EIMI but I have not added to it since May 2022, I think I'm going to leave it as it is since China as a % of the fund appears to have gone down quite a bit to just 25% now.

 

[peachmouse]

CSI300 returns are negative since 2009, I dun think this is just a blip or correction when a market's returns are this bad over such a long period of time (~15 years).

Stock market going nowhere for long periods is also seen in US market (S&P500 from 2000 - 12) and our own STI (peak is still at 2007).

These indices may not include dividend returns.

 

[d5dude]

Stock market going nowhere for long periods is also seen in US market (S&P500 from 2000 - 12) and our own STI (peak is still at 2007).

These indices may not include dividend returns.

2000 was a bubble top (sp500 p/e >30), I dun think you can use that as a basis for comparison. CSI300 in 2009 wasn’t even that richly valued, it’s not like the basis that I’m using is 6000 pts or something. I think it’s fair to expect a decent return over 14 years when I pay an average valuation for an index fund.

This has just been very disappointing even though it makes up a very small % of my portfolio.