2024 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[andyhtc]

Who's offering 3%? Im still being quoted 3.25-3.3% for mortgage leh.

Just check with mortgage advisors...

 

[zeroX26]

Just check with mortgage advisors...

Yes, I did that.

 

[revhappy]

100 % in SGD and USD T-bills for now.

Wait till the S REITs thread disappears into the 4th or 5th page of Stock forum and no one wants to talk about s REITs, wait till the financial Utubers stop making videos about S-REITs, I think that would be the time to go big back into S REITs.

I think Right now probably still too much money on sidelines looking to capitalize on recent downturn in sreits?

Never bought any S REITs before so am waiting for disinterest to really set in across social media platforms before I start putting money in, that’s just my view.

Did you buy the dip? I feel better to be at 60/40 and then just buy the dips and sell the rips on the margin(not leverage margin) than be 100% cash. But I am kicking myself for not buying more.

 

[revhappy]

Just check with mortgage advisors...

I didnt know there is such a profession called mortgage brokers/advisors. Do the banks pay them? commission? Do they need to be registered somewhere?

 

[stanlawj]

Did you buy the dip? I feel better to be at 60/40 and then just buy the dips and sell the rips on the margin(not leverage margin) than be 100% cash. But I am kicking myself for not buying more.

The day you decide to buy more especially out of overconfidence, will be the day the market teaches you a big lesson.
I find it always good to be skeptical of the market, because it makes one nimble and quick to react to sudden changes.

 

[andyhtc]

I didnt know there is such a profession called mortgage brokers/advisors. Do the banks pay them? commission? Do they need to be registered somewhere?

Commission from bank...

Just a non-registered middleman who sources for the best deals.

 

[limster]

Did you buy the dip? I feel better to be at 60/40 and then just buy the dips and sell the rips on the margin(not leverage margin) than be 100% cash. But I am kicking myself for not buying more.

I feel that way all the time. ... At least you bought something

I brought forward my November DCA to buy my ETFs and some stocks at end Nov, so I just treat it as getting a few percent discount on my DCA. Won't move the needle much on my total return, but I console myself by saying at least I bought something during the dip

 

[boroangel]

Did you buy the dip? I feel better to be at 60/40 and then just buy the dips and sell the rips on the margin(not leverage margin) than be 100% cash. But I am kicking myself for not buying more.

No I been winding down since last year to be below 20% equities now. Happy to preserve my capital for now, sit on USD and SGD T-bills, rather than take too much risk.

Just guessing that if the Fed don't raise interest rate further, it will take a long time (maybe a year to get down below 3% inflation but not quite able to get to 2%), and I tend to listen to uncle Jamie Dimon. When he speaks I sit up and listen. I might be wrong but I remember vaguely stocks tend to go down relatively sharply for a period of time when Fed is forced to unwind interest rates (usually due to some recession or crisis). Waiting for that window, not sure if that will come.

 

[churnmaster]

No I been winding down since last year to be below 20% equities now. Happy to preserve my capital for now, sit on USD and SGD T-bills, rather than take too much risk.

Just guessing that if the Fed don't raise interest rate further, it will take a long time (maybe a year to get down below 3% inflation but not quite able to get to 2%), and I tend to listen to uncle Jamie Dimon. When he speaks I sit up and listen. I might be wrong but I remember vaguely stocks tend to go down relatively sharply for a period of time when Fed is forced to unwind interest rates (usually due to some recession or crisis). Waiting for that window, not sure if that will come.

And I guess you made positive returns last year when many others were down double digits in line with the markets.

 

[d5dude]

No I been winding down since last year to be below 20% equities now. Happy to preserve my capital for now, sit on USD and SGD T-bills, rather than take too much risk.

Just guessing that if the Fed don't raise interest rate further, it will take a long time (maybe a year to get down below 3% inflation but not quite able to get to 2%), and I tend to listen to uncle Jamie Dimon. When he speaks I sit up and listen. I might be wrong but I remember vaguely stocks tend to go down relatively sharply for a period of time when Fed is forced to unwind interest rates (usually due to some recession or crisis). Waiting for that window, not sure if that will come.

CPI should rollover hard next year due to the way rents are computed alone (private measures lead the CPI rent component by 1 yr), the fed can cut rates based on this, it doesnt have to be some sort of a crisis that forces their hand. I think both stocks and bonds will do very well next year even if we get a mild recession.

 

[elvintay07]

Those buying bonds quite funny one la. When inflation is like 2%, the bond interest is like 2% then everyone avoid. Now inflation 3.5%, all cheong to buy bonds at 3.5%.

But seriously I understand why. Venture capital managers told me who wants IRR of 12-18% when u can have risk free for 4%. Reits is now 7%. A lot of China funds are coming but all buying properties. Because no way u can lose a lot. A huge group in the property thread misjudge this and is crying quietly.

Investing is really about forecasting not following. Sifu once said, it is about how much you made when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.

 

[stanlawj]

Those buying bonds quite funny one la. When inflation is like 2%, the bond interest is like 2% then everyone avoid. Now inflation 3.5%, all cheong to buy bonds at 3.5%.

But seriously I understand why. Venture capital managers told me who wants IRR of 12-18% when u can have risk free for 4%. Reits is now 7%. A lot of China funds are coming but all buying properties. Because no way u can lose a lot. A huge group in the property thread misjudge this and is crying quietly.

Investing is really about forecasting not following. Sifu once said, it is about how much you made when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.

Depends on who is saying what.
Financial industry is interested in marketing their products and making fees, so you'll see fund managers, analysts all saying things that either pump their books, or pump for their clients.

 

[DevilPlate]

Those buying bonds quite funny one la. When inflation is like 2%, the bond interest is like 2% then everyone avoid. Now inflation 3.5%, all cheong to buy bonds at 3.5%.

But seriously I understand why. Venture capital managers told me who wants IRR of 12-18% when u can have risk free for 4%. Reits is now 7%. A lot of China funds are coming but all buying properties. Because no way u can lose a lot. A huge group in the property thread misjudge this and is crying quietly.

Investing is really about forecasting not following. Sifu once said, it is about how much you made when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.

depends on yr profile lah.

If u already have "enough", u can go into safe mode.

Whereas in accumulation phase, go safe jialat.

 

[boroangel]

And I guess you made positive returns last year when many others were down double digits in line with the markets.

Yes was up 13% last year if I remember thereabouts. This year so far not much just few% , just preservation mode and staying patient.

 

[DevilPlate]

Yes was up 13% last year if I remember thereabouts. This year so far not much just few% , just preservation mode and staying patient.

earning few % better than me losing few % in reits this year

 

[boroangel]

CPI should rollover hard next year due to the way rents are computed alone (private measures lead the CPI rent component by 1 yr), the fed can cut rates based on this, it doesnt have to be some sort of a crisis that forces their hand. I think both stocks and bonds will do very well next year even if we get a mild recession.

Not sure what really to do or invest in for now.

Planning to change T bills strategy and buy some long term USD treasury notes ( 3 and 5 years) , some park in USD T bills and wait for any crisis to hit, DCA some monthly salary into the local banks starting Jan, REITs not yet as I am not sure if they are out of the woods yet.

 

[d5dude]

Those buying bonds quite funny one la. When inflation is like 2%, the bond interest is like 2% then everyone avoid. Now inflation 3.5%, all cheong to buy bonds at 3.5%.

But seriously I understand why. Venture capital managers told me who wants IRR of 12-18% when u can have risk free for 4%. Reits is now 7%. A lot of China funds are coming but all buying properties. Because no way u can lose a lot. A huge group in the property thread misjudge this and is crying quietly.

Investing is really about forecasting not following. Sifu once said, it is about how much you made when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.

Its all about upside vs downside risk.

There was massive downside risks when bond yields were near zero because the lower bound for interest rate is always going to be at around zero no matter what the central banks or financial pundits tell you. Reason is simple, very few people will deposit their $$$ in banks if rates are -5%, they'd rather hold cash, gold, etc. There is no effective way to transmit monetary policy when rates go below zero, this is why rates in Japan have been stuck at -0.1% even though they were in deflation for many years.

At 5% bonds are a lot more attractive since there is actually real potential upside now, of course nobody knows if bond yields will continue to climb but at least investors are not stuck with all downside risk anymore.

 

[limster]

Its all about upside vs downside risk.

At 5% bonds are a lot more attractive since there is actually real potential upside now, of course nobody knows if bond yields will continue to climb but at least investors are not stuck with all downside risk anymore.

agree with this.

thats why term US$ bond ETF like ID28 or IB26 look attractive to me.

currently the price of the ETF is less than redemption value, meaning as long as I hold to maturity and there are no major defaults, I won't lose money. why holding, I might have an opportunity to sell early if there is capital gain

I also feel the currency downside is limited - I cannot imagine S$ forever appreciating against the US$ - the risk of S$ weakening once the Chinese hot money inflow slows down is higher than the opposite direction.

 

[churnmaster]

Yes was up 13% last year if I remember thereabouts. This year so far not much just few% , just preservation mode and staying patient.

Well done.

 

[elvintay07]

agree with this.

thats why term US$ bond ETF like ID28 or IB26 look attractive to me.

currently the price of the ETF is less than redemption value, meaning as long as I hold to maturity and there are no major defaults, I won't lose money. why holding, I might have an opportunity to sell early if there is capital gain

I also feel the currency downside is limited - I cannot imagine S$ forever appreciating against the US$ - the risk of S$ weakening once the Chinese hot money inflow slows down is higher than the opposite direction.

Haha! Very funny lei. You see historically what is US vs SGD. Probably by the time I retire (30 years later), 1SGD can change US$1