2024 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[TehSi99]

STI a laggard again compared to other Asian market.

 

[LPPLKPKB]

STI a laggard again compared to other Asian market.

STI has been like that for at least 10 years now

 

[edwardZ]

STI a laggard again compared to other Asian market.

when global markets down, STI down together.
when global markets up, STI stagnant.

 

[limster]

I'm glad I did my monthly DCA on VWRD and other ETFs earlier this month.... now prices are seeming rather high

The only thing that is 'cheap' are S-REITs, I might be tempted to buy if everything else rallies and S-REITs continue to drop....

 

[soulblader_89]

STI has been like that for at least 10 years now

sti can go and jiak sai, alrdy sold all my STI and invest in US stock

 

[soulblader_89]

It is very difficult for the China market to rally as long as there is capital flight from the country. The current valuations represent the minimum that the owners are willing to take for their stakes. Every time there is a bounce, they sell in force and then spirit the money out of the country by whatever means necessary.

This capital flight is driven by fear of wealth seizures in the name of common prosperity. The recent bizzare regulations against the Chinese gaming companies is said to have been because these companies have been dragging their feet with regard to common prosperity contribuitions to help deal with the spate of natural disasters in 2023. The move which perplexed so many Singapore Youtube investors should be seen as a demonstration by the CCP of what they will do to those deemed uncooperative.

In terms of cities, the recent floods have shown that the CCP is prepared to sacrifice the Tier 3/4 cities to protect the Tier 1/2 cities where the elites live and work. In the long stagnation, my expectation is that they will divert resources so that life goes on pretty much as normal in the Tier 1/2 cities. The rest of the country should prepare for a long period of impoverishment and "eat bitter".

in summary

just dun invest in wat BABA or china stock

will burn until siao

 

[LPPLKPKB]

China markets will capitulate and then range bound for years.

 

[yslvlys]

You mean it hasn't capitulated?

 

[elvintay07]

90% of retail lose money, only 10% makes money.
Which translates to 90% of public usually wrong.
Let's inverse the results of this survey:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/3-4-asians-expect-china-keep-slowing-end-japans-nirp-2024

Inversed results for 2024:

• Japan will maintain YCC for 2024
• China's economic growth will increase (stocks to bottom in Q1)
• No Chinese 5nm microchip development
• BYD will be subject to tariffs in US and unable to challenge Tesla on price.

Rest are irrelevant for stocks. (India will move forward as usual with or without Modi).

Kao! I think the same as you. The minority

 

[TehSi99]

Kao! I think the same as you. The minority

Must really see who are the respondents.

Reports maynot be same as retailers actions, unless reports are guiding certain actions from retailers.

China market too big to ignore. I am still vested and continue to look for opportunities, but have to be very selective.

 

[TehSi99]

in summary

just dun invest in wat BABA or china stock

will burn until siao

Views on BABA really on both ends.
The only thing I dont understand is why would such a big company with good fundamentals have share price continue to drop and drop. Unlike it is done intentionally.

 

[elvintay07]

Views on BABA really on both ends.
The only thing I dont understand is why would such a big company with good fundamentals have share price continue to drop and drop. Unlike it is done intentionally.

To be honest, baba is game over already. We cannot use US metric to assess China companies. This is the same case as you are like a corporate high flyer. You go work in US firm can say this say that. You go china firm and you challenge chairman, the verdict is game over for you. Although everyone tends to disagree but Chinese culture is like this

Alibaba trying to bring back Jack Ma but I think very tough. Their shares probably tanked 70-80%. To go back to former glory, perhaps need 2-3x. Today if u got those kinds of money, perhaps test PayPal (not stock recommendation). With simi AI to do money exchange blah blah, perhaps got chance to 2-3x.

 

[pcuser123]

That is the culture in China. Before Mao, Confucius culture ruled the "World". Today, the Confucius culture is still around. Added to that, they are also ruled by Mao's culture in the last 70 years, Mao's culture literally means "Unless you behave, there will be no tomorrow for you". Deng suffered under Mao's culture and tried to change that when he was in power during the 80s but his effort was in vain.

 

[soulblader_89]

Views on BABA really on both ends.
The only thing I dont understand is why would such a big company with good fundamentals have share price continue to drop and drop. Unlike it is done intentionally.

becos it is indirectly control by ccp, it is a hard truth

it is not alive becos of free market like us

ccp restrict foreign company to enter china, created giant like baba, tencent etc etc

the whole environment is artifial

 

[soulblader_89]

China is relying on internal country investor now to keep the share from tanking

but the world is so big, u cannot rely on only China domestic investor to trade baba stock

a lot of foreigner dun buy baba stock

 

[LPPLKPKB]

Too many people are still trying to “pick bones” in China stocks for them to bottom out, needs more people to give up hope.

 

[ctan84]

Views on BABA really on both ends.
The only thing I dont understand is why would such a big company with good fundamentals have share price continue to drop and drop. Unlike it is done intentionally.

All your FA methods are derived from companies that grew in markets that were largely under a democratic government. The problem with China now is that its closing up and reversing back to its communistic nature. So your techniques that are created from a market of a totally different nature won't be very relevant or useful anymore.

 

[ctan84]

To be honest, baba is game over already. We cannot use US metric to assess China companies. This is the same case as you are like a corporate high flyer. You go work in US firm can say this say that. You go china firm and you challenge chairman, the verdict is game over for you. Although everyone tends to disagree but Chinese culture is like this

Alibaba trying to bring back Jack Ma but I think very tough. Their shares probably tanked 70-80%. To go back to former glory, perhaps need 2-3x. Today if u got those kinds of money, perhaps test PayPal (not stock recommendation). With simi AI to do money exchange blah blah, perhaps got chance to 2-3x.

Very few who can actually see this.
But on a side note, why Paypal? Its on my monitor list lah, but didn't really keep up with its recent development

 

[elvintay07]

Very few who can actually see this.
But on a side note, why Paypal? Its on my monitor list lah, but didn't really keep up with its recent development

I am picking one that has dropped a lot but have potential to return to former glory. PayPal is interesting because they are looking at AI to exchange money. AI hype plus good CEO also got chance. Now digital economy I think is ok already. Only issue is the few countries that got problem. China is one of them.

 

[ctan84]

I am picking one that has dropped a lot but have potential to return to former glory. PayPal is interesting because they are looking at AI to exchange money. AI hype plus good CEO also got chance. Now digital economy I think is ok already. Only issue is the few countries that got problem. China is one of them.

Wats your target entry price? Recent lowest price was $50-$51 I think.