2024 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[elvintay07]

On the subject of recovery, the current foreign investor belief like yourself is that property drives most of the growth, thus if no return in property market, no growth and no foreign funds for China. This is consensus foreign view. We can also tack on de-globalisation/shifting of supply chains to other countries.

For readers' benefit, the following video interview of Chine Beigebook summarizes this viewpoint very well including the stagnant near-term outlook:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/12/...iver-in-china-for-the-next-several-years.html

I want to emphasize: That is TODAY.


If this has already been reported, then the market has priced this in.

The trouble with debate about stocks is my debate focus on the time frame in the FUTURE, while bears are still talking about today's priced in facts and the associated lack of any solid bullish evidence.

Well, just use Huawei as a reference example for China's future corporations. Alibaba is also innovating. Just because they are behind and late to the game, does not mean they are any less capable.
I don't know if you have any experience running your own business. If these are your competitors, you should revere them, not disregard them.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/29/tech/huawei-revenue-rebound-china-intl-hnk/index.html

Huawei was once fighting for its survival. It is back to nearly $100 billion in revenue in 2023​

Unlike Japan's rigid age-based seniority in corporations, China's corporate culture is ruthless.
Here is the write-up about PDD and get the truest sense of how very different it is from Japan's rigid corpses.

https://www.baiguan.news/p/how-does-the-internal-management

How does the internal management of Pinduoduo operate?​

Anyway, I'm not here to win any debate right now, because near-term outlook is still bearish.

The purpose is to reference to these points I publicly made in HWZ forum if my insight prove to be correct in the future.

I agree with the views. Market is a voting machine and in short term, all no balls to go into China. Even my 2 balls also dropped. Long term I think still poise for recovery. I don’t see China and Japan as comparable. Those who thinks China = Japan read too much western news. US knows China is a huge threat hence they purposely sanction them so that they can buy more time.

Why did they sanction Huawei and not Xiaomi/ Oppo/ Alibaba? I think they have a lot of data to show Huawei is the real threat. Furthermore Huawei can move must fast as it is privately owned,

I quite sure China will recover. But question of when. When we invest in all these emerging market, it is not about fundamentals/ technical. It is about government. Once government is screwed, quite difficult to invest. I think that is the issue with China today. Not so much on sectors. Today if we compare consumer electronics, I think China is stronger than Japan, Korea, US. U can see their consumer drones, mobile phones, electrical appliances etc

 

[elvintay07]

As I am also vested in HK/China ETFs, I am hopeful that China will recover.

If HK/China ETFs are able to outperform Vanguard World in 2024, I will take the opportunity to sell some and reblance into Vanguard World. I want to cap HK/China exposure to 10% of my portfolio.

Yeah! I think best to cap at 10%.

 

[d5dude]

On the subject of recovery, the current foreign investor belief like yourself is that property drives most of the growth, thus if no return in property market, no growth and no foreign funds for China. This is consensus foreign view. We can also tack on de-globalisation/shifting of supply chains to other countries.

For readers' benefit, the following video interview of Chine Beigebook summarizes this viewpoint very well including the stagnant near-term outlook:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/12/...iver-in-china-for-the-next-several-years.html

I want to emphasize: That is TODAY.


If this has already been reported, then the market has priced this in.

The trouble with debate about stocks is my debate focus on the time frame in the FUTURE, while bears are still talking about today's priced in facts and the associated lack of any solid bullish evidence.

Well, just use Huawei as a reference example for China's future corporations. Alibaba is also innovating. Just because they are behind and late to the game, does not mean they are any less capable.
I don't know if you have any experience running your own business. If these are your competitors, you should revere them, not disregard them.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/29/tech/huawei-revenue-rebound-china-intl-hnk/index.html

Huawei was once fighting for its survival. It is back to nearly $100 billion in revenue in 2023​

Unlike Japan's rigid age-based seniority in corporations, China's corporate culture is ruthless.
Here is the write-up about PDD and get the truest sense of how very different it is from Japan's rigid corpses.

https://www.baiguan.news/p/how-does-the-internal-management

How does the internal management of Pinduoduo operate?​

Anyway, I'm not here to win any debate right now, because near-term outlook is still bearish.

The purpose is to reference to these points I publicly made in HWZ forum if my insight prove to be correct in the future.

The Japanese also innovated and gave the world many new products that many craved in the 90s/2000s, yet the stock market went nowhere for decades. This is primarily due to the real estate bust and unfavourable demographics, bear in mind that china's current total fertility rate is much lower (and dropping!) than Japan in the 90s, so the prognosis can only get worse. Also Japan had net positive migration (despite the xenophobia) while China is always negative, unless you think the only people who are emigrating out of China are old folks, the demographic crisis is only going to be worse than what Japan is currently experiencing. Demography is destiny, you cant have a strong economy/country with a population thats wearing adult diapers.

This is the long term view, short term is impossible to know but like I said, China is already at trough valuations, it wont take much to spark a bounce.

 

[aurvandil]

This is the long term view, short term is impossible to know but like I said, China is already at trough valuations, it wont take much to spark a bounce.

It is very difficult for the China market to rally as long as there is capital flight from the country. The current valuations represent the minimum that the owners are willing to take for their stakes. Every time there is a bounce, they sell in force and then spirit the money out of the country by whatever means necessary.

This capital flight is driven by fear of wealth seizures in the name of common prosperity. The recent bizzare regulations against the Chinese gaming companies is said to have been because these companies have been dragging their feet with regard to common prosperity contribuitions to help deal with the spate of natural disasters in 2023. The move which perplexed so many Singapore Youtube investors should be seen as a demonstration by the CCP of what they will do to those deemed uncooperative.

In terms of cities, the recent floods have shown that the CCP is prepared to sacrifice the Tier 3/4 cities to protect the Tier 1/2 cities where the elites live and work. In the long stagnation, my expectation is that they will divert resources so that life goes on pretty much as normal in the Tier 1/2 cities. The rest of the country should prepare for a long period of impoverishment and "eat bitter".

 

[aurvandil]

Anyway, I'm not here to win any debate right now, because near-term outlook is still bearish.

The purpose is to reference to these points I publicly made in HWZ forum if my insight prove to be correct in the future.

You are free to believe what you want. If you feel that you have done the necessary due dilligence and it is a good investment, then you should commit your funds as you deem fit.

 

[edwardZ]

XJP made some rare statements about the negative china outlook in his NYE message, any china market expert can weigh in and analyse what he said?

 

[DevilPlate]

XJP made some rare statements about the negative china outlook in his NYE message, any china market expert can weigh in and analyse what he said?

Idk what he said but all i know he is vy into common prosperity regime lol

 

[TehSi99]

XJP made some rare statements about the negative china outlook in his NYE message, any china market expert can weigh in and analyse what he said?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/01/econ...my-intl-hnk?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_yahoo

 

[stanlawj]

90% of retail lose money, only 10% makes money.
Which translates to 90% of public usually wrong.
Let's inverse the results of this survey:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/3-4-asians-expect-china-keep-slowing-end-japans-nirp-2024

Inversed results for 2024:

• Japan will maintain YCC for 2024
• China's economic growth will increase (stocks to bottom in Q1)
• No Chinese 5nm microchip development
• BYD will be subject to tariffs in US and unable to challenge Tesla on price.

Rest are irrelevant for stocks. (India will move forward as usual with or without Modi).

 

[limster]

I have been doing my Jan DCA this week and also decided to throw some money to average down my Vodafone buying price (this is one of my red counters, small holding but nice dividend). Companies with big debt piles like Vodafone justifiably got hit hard, but hopefully there is light at the end of the tunnel. 2023 was the year of Euro banks. Will Telco recover in 2024? (Waiting for Singtel too....)

Markets are relatively stable. Waiting for the next big move. I think upside and downside risk are reasonably balanced.

 

[stanlawj]

What will CBs do in 2024 or 2025????
Unemployment -> lower wage growth/wages -> lower inflation -> cut rates -> That's why STOCKS BULL RUN now!!

https://japantoday.com/category/business/global-unemployment-set-to-worsen-in-2024-un

Global unemployment set to worsen in 2024: U.N.​

 

[limster]

What will CBs do in 2024 or 2025????
Unemployment -> lower wage growth/wages -> lower inflation -> cut rates -> That's why STOCKS BULL RUN now!!

https://japantoday.com/category/business/global-unemployment-set-to-worsen-in-2024-un

Global unemployment set to worsen in 2024: U.N.​

The 2022 global unemployment rate stood at 5.3 percent and made a modest improvement last year to 5.1 percent.

However, in 2024 an extra two million workers are expected to be looking for jobs, raising the global unemployment rate to 5.2 percent.

lol, article says there will be a 0.1% difference and you make it sound like a global disaster
2022: 5.3%
2023: 5.1%
2024: 5.2% - PANIC!!!!

 

[revhappy]

What will CBs do in 2024 or 2025????
Unemployment -> lower wage growth/wages -> lower inflation -> cut rates -> That's why STOCKS BULL RUN now!!

https://japantoday.com/category/business/global-unemployment-set-to-worsen-in-2024-un

Global unemployment set to worsen in 2024: U.N.​

CBs haven't cut rates yet. Unemployment rising slightly is good from stock market perspective, there was too much tightness in labour market. Now inflation will cool off and CBs will actually cut rates. This is probably is least worrisome time for stock markets.

If you go back to 2022 and 2023, we had so many worries, war, inflation, rising rates and markets still did okay.

 

[stanlawj]

CBs haven't cut rates yet. Unemployment rising slightly is good from stock market perspective, there was too much tightness in labour market. Now inflation will cool off and CBs will actually cut rates. This is probably is least worrisome time for stock markets.

If you go back to 2022 and 2023, we had so many worries, war, inflation, rising rates and markets still did okay.

Stock market is acting now in anticipation of the known future rate cut.
Yup, market is doing fine, at most is pull back and then recover.

 

[d5dude]

CBs haven't cut rates yet. Unemployment rising slightly is good from stock market perspective, there was too much tightness in labour market. Now inflation will cool off and CBs will actually cut rates. This is probably is least worrisome time for stock markets.

If you go back to 2022 and 2023, we had so many worries, war, inflation, rising rates and markets still did okay.

Moderate inflation + low unemployment = goldilocks.

 

[TehSi99]

Moderate inflation + low unemployment = goldilocks.

Inflation in control but hope can do better and people have jobs + many jobs available. Want to complain also no strong case.

If high inflation and no jobs, gg.

 

[TehSi99]

STI really cmi.

When everyone is green, it ownself is red.

 

[revhappy]

"Permanent increase in debt and permanent increase in demand" @BBCWatcher @Shiny Things you might find this interesting.

 

[stanlawj]

"Permanent increase in debt and permanent increase in demand" @BBCWatcher @Shiny Things you might find this interesting.

What is more important question: Can Waller, or the FOMC do anything about it? Just looking and observing and stating the obvious is not going to help.

The biggest spending items in the US fiscal deficit is entitlements (Social Security, Medicare), followed by Defense. These are growing bigger and bigger (compounding exponentially).

Does Waller dare to say: cut Social Security benefits and downgrade US Military global presence?

 

[elvintay07]

"Permanent increase in debt and permanent increase in demand" @BBCWatcher @Shiny Things you might find this interesting.

Means what? You billionaire 1 day every 50 meals ah