If Gold can rise from USD 2,025 per ounce to USD 2,400 - USD 2,500 by next 2 years, will you buy today?

[stanlawj]

NY sells gold, Shanghai buys gold.

 

[sky1978]

NY sells gold, Shanghai buys gold.

The Americans themselves buy a lot of gold also, as in solid gold bars. Their Costco supermarket (members-only club) managed to sell 200mil worth of gold bars each month, and this is probably one of the many avenues through which people in the US can buy gold bars.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/cos...-gold-bars-a-month-wells-fargo-estimates.html

 

[Venusys]

I think the media narratives of China buying Gold, US selling Gold is quite unfounded. Truth is gold is being bought and sold everywhere, we hardly see media talks about Gold industry in Canada, Indonesia, Africa and Australia. Yet, it is always using China vs US financial war as main theme in the news. I think we should distance ourselves from believing everything from media.. you know.. like ehem .. BBC kind of reporting

One thing is true though, the pricing of GOLD is traded in US market, it is still the biggest market for buying and selling of derivatives. Hence, US determines the pricing of gold in the world market.

 

[stanlawj]

I think the media narratives of China buying Gold, US selling Gold is quite unfounded. Truth is gold is being bought and sold everywhere, we hardly see media talks about Gold industry in Canada, Indonesia, Africa and Australia. Yet, it is always using China vs US financial war as main theme in the news. I think we should distance ourselves from believing everything from media.. you know.. like ehem .. BBC kind of reporting

One thing is true though, the pricing of GOLD is traded in US market, it is still the biggest market for buying and selling of derivatives. Hence, US determines the pricing of gold in the world market.

My answer to you:

 

[Venusys]

My answer to you:

I find myself having little reason to believe what a youtuber said about his unfounded views/ opinions, your answer to me is pretty meaningless.

 

[Venusys]

It is official. Gold has successfully achieved the targeted pricing of US 2,400 / ounce today 12th April 2024.
In term of returns, it is close to 20% per annum ( Not too bad)

PS. I thank God for your grace and making it happen for all who has trusted in you, lord Jesus.

 

[stanlawj]

On CME Globex, digital (*fake*) spot gold is still below $2400/oz.
But I predict it will cross 2400 later today, and then FOMO will start THIS WEEKEND as more ppl realise after coming home from work and reading the news, realising that it is not going down!!

It is official. Gold has successfully achieved the targeted pricing of US 2,400 / ounce today 12th April 2024.
In term of returns, it is close to 20% per annum ( Not too bad)

PS. I thank God for your grace and making it happen for all who has trusted in you, lord Jesus.

View attachment 48856

 

[Aurum168]

Knock knock,
Spot gold just reach usd2400.

 

[stanlawj]

What has this got to do with de-dollarisation? You said gold is going to replace the dollar as new trading currency, I call this BS.

The world cannot de-dollarise without a new currency to replace it, its that simple. There are simply no good alternatives to the dollar right now, the RMB probably had the best chance to replace the dollar but who trusts the CCP now after their war on capitalists? The amount of money lost in Chinese equities in the past year as a result of the incessant "crackdowns" likely dwarfs the combined losses of all the crappy US small cap growth stonks.

Of course none of this is new, I flagged this risk SEVERAL TIMES last year after the CCP deleted an entire sector of the economy.

The answer is here today.

Both USD and gold are now UP together vs all other currencies of the world.
So gold didn't replace USD, no dedollarisation in currency exchange.

But we have dedollarisation in OIL trade due to exclusion of Russian oil from global market trade in USD. Russian oil can only be bought with roubles, yuan or gold.

And thus gold replace US Treasury bonds in central bank foreign reserves especially in China which runs the largest trade surplus with the rest-of-the-world. That's what it is replacing. Then add on citizens purchase of gold in China.

The extract from the video explanation by Luke Grommen:


Full video was originally posted earlier:

My answer to you:

 

[d5dude]

The answer is here today.

Both USD and gold are now UP together vs all other currencies of the world.
So gold didn't replace USD, no dedollarisation in currency exchange.

But we have dedollarisation in OIL trade due to exclusion of Russian oil from global market trade in USD. Russian oil can only be bought with roubles, yuan or gold.

If its all due to Russian oil then rouble and yuan should be up huge vs the USD, but the opposite is going on. In fact nearly all currencies are sinking vs the dollar. Dollar moving up = huge demand for dollars, de-dollarisation should mean the opposite i.e no longer in demand.

And thus gold replace US Treasury bonds in central bank foreign reserves especially in China which runs the largest trade surplus with the rest-of-the-world. That's what it is replacing. Then add on citizens purchase of gold in China.

The extract from the video explanation by Luke Grommen:


Full video was originally posted earlier:

China's trade surplus came in much smaller than expected, that didnt crash gold prices. Russia/China buying gold instead of TSYs isnt news, I actually pointed this out about a year ago in post #22 of this thread. Also silver has been ripping higher lately even though no central bank holds silver as reserves.

As for retail customers in a buying frenzy, well this theory might actually have some merit:

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Living/c...millions-24-karat-gold-bar/story?id=109131981


The how and why gold is moving up/down doesnt concern me since its not really an industrial metal, I'm more concerned about copper price rocketing higher recently because copper is an important industrial metal, this is obviously inflationary. Cocoa has also reached incredible levels, about 5X of historical average.

This reminds me of the speculative frenzy in commodities back in 2008, right before the GFC.

 

[stanlawj]

China's trade surplus came in much smaller than expected, that didnt crash gold prices.

To me, it looks more like higher highs, and higher lows along an uptrending average.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade#:~:text=April of 2024.-,China recorded a trade surplus of 58.55 USD Billion in,macro models and analysts expectations.

 

[stanlawj]

Bitcoin is digital version of gold.
If gold were free from naked short manipulation by big banks:

 

[andyhtc]

The answer is here today.

Both USD and gold are now UP together vs all other currencies of the world.
So gold didn't replace USD, no dedollarisation in currency exchange.

But we have dedollarisation in OIL trade due to exclusion of Russian oil from global market trade in USD. Russian oil can only be bought with roubles, yuan or gold.

And thus gold replace US Treasury bonds in central bank foreign reserves especially in China which runs the largest trade surplus with the rest-of-the-world. That's what it is replacing. Then add on citizens purchase of gold in China.

The extract from the video explanation by Luke Grommen:


Full video was originally posted earlier:

For verification of his data: the London LBMA tonnage is really being drained fast!

https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data

 

[Venusys]

I wonder what price will gold be tomorrow

If there is high pricing, likely could be speculative, likely due to FOMO..

Be strategic with pricing levels..

Be ready to book some gains too at unreasonable high pricing

 

[sohguanh]

I wonder what price will gold be tomorrow

If there is high pricing, likely could be speculative, likely due to FOMO..

Be strategic with pricing levels..

Be ready to book some gains too at unreasonable high pricing

Typically for war like Ukraine as e.g since it is fairly recent gold will spike up and then die down subsequently.

 

[stanlawj]

Gold bugs know what this means.

Google Search results for VonMises in the US after the Renato-Moicano UFC fight

 

[d5dude]

To me, it looks more like higher highs, and higher lows along an uptrending average.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade#:~:text=April of 2024.-,China recorded a trade surplus of 58.55 USD Billion in,macro models and analysts expectations.

It hasnt changed in the last decade and I dun think there is scope for this number to grow due to continued US de-risking from China, Apple products alone is a big number in this equation since 90% of their products are made in China, Apple products imported from China are part of the goods trade deficit even though the majority of the value doesnt actually come from China e.g display is made in Korea.

In any case de-dollarisation simply cannot happen without another currency taking over the dollar's position in international trade, gold is never going to take its position, nobody is going to start invoicing in gold coins/bars.

 

[stanlawj]

"In the gold markets, there’s a very large mysterious buyer operating through the OTC market who is price insensitive."

Start from 21:55

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/14...campaign=hedgeye-investing-summit-spring-2024

 

[stanlawj]

I just bought a laptop from Lenovo. At the bottom of the invoice is written:

Remark
These items are controlled by the U.S. Government and authorized for export only to the country of ultimate destination for use by the ultimate consignee or end user(s) herein identified. They may not be resold, transferred, or otherwise disposed of, to any other country or to any person other than the authorized ultimate consignee or end-user(s), either in their original form or after being incorporated into other items, without first obtaining approval from the U.S. government or as otherwise authorized by U.S. law and regulations.


hello, we are not your colonies anymore.
gold and silver to the moon

 

[CrashWire]

Remark
These items are controlled by the U.S. Government and authorized for export only to the country of ultimate destination for use by the ultimate consignee or end user(s) herein identified. They may not be resold, transferred, or otherwise disposed of, to any other country or to any person other than the authorized ultimate consignee or end-user(s), either in their original form or after being incorporated into other items, without first obtaining approval from the U.S. government or as otherwise authorized by U.S. law and regulations.

Is it made in the US? Or did you buy direct from the US?

It could be because of some tax exemption, since your purchase didn't get charged US sales tax.