4 MYR = 1 SGD coming

[DevilPlate]

For those who wondering when is the best time to change SGD to MYR, the short-term top in SGDMYR is guaranteed if the rate suddenly goes parabolic (eg. June 2023, end of Oct 2022).
So, no, I don't think the short-term top is in yet. Just exchange as much MYR as you need ONLY when you need it,

Best time to change is tomorrow

 

[stanlawj]

The rate trend is steepening too fast... short-term top at 3.59 or 3.6 is my prediction.

 

[stanlawj]

Although the short-term top 3.6 is very close, the long-term top in SGDMYR is higher than 3.6 by 2027.

I finally figured out the root problem in Malaysia. The majority race doubts the Malaysian 1957 and 1963 Constitution because they are unhappy with it, and thus constantly challenges the constitution either directly or indirectly through the state laws, or through their actions within the govt ministries.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/mala...court-rejects-two-ngos-leave-to-appeal/119013

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/c...-history-for-muslims-after-apex-court-ruling/

Elites exploit Article 153 to plunder nation: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/696899

These constant doubts about the basis of formation of Malaysia, means the country will never be stable and policies will keep changing as the participants continue to pursue zero-sum games, believing in win-lose outcomes.

This is an extremely important benefit to Singapore, as the Singapore's man-made advantages (low crime rate, rule of law, zero capital gains tax, digitalisation, relatively stronger multiracial unity compared to neighbours etc) all become even more striking and beneficial for capital-intensive investments to serve the 661-million ASEAN region. (Labor-intensive investments will go to Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand).

My projection of fundamental key turning point for Malaysia will come only approx 30 years later (~AD2050) after all those Msians above 50yrs old pass into irrelevance. Post-Covid, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand are now progressing much faster.

 

[Youmigratecanotherscant]

Has anyone used wise to transfer 100k myr to another Malaysian account?

Is wise the cheapest remit ? I don’t have cimb my account

 

[andyhtc]

Has anyone used wise to transfer 100k myr to another Malaysian account?

Is wise the cheapest remit ? I don’t have cimb my account

I use Instarem.

The Malaysian account should belong to you.

If not, the transfer will be stopped and subject to further verification.

 

[Youmigratecanotherscant]

I use Instarem.

The Malaysian account should belong to you.

If not, the transfer will be stopped and subject to further verification.

How about wise ?

wise can transfer to other account ?

 

[stanlawj]

Has anyone used wise to transfer 100k myr to another Malaysian account?

Is wise the cheapest remit ? I don’t have cimb my account

I think WISE has limits. Not possible to reach 100k.

 

[stanlawj]

While acknowledging that external factors influenced the ringgit’s decline, World Bank economist Apurva Sanghi pointed to the 1MDB scandal and Malaysia’s lack of competitiveness as the root of the problem.

The bank’s lead economist for Malaysia said while other Asian countries hit by the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) have introduced significant reforms, Malaysia’s lack of reform has hurt its economy in the long run.

 

[Youmigratecanotherscant]

I think WISE has limits. Not possible to reach 100k.

Sending to MYR​

Who can I send MYR to?​

You can send MYR to individual and business bank accounts in Malaysia.

What information do I need about my recipient?​

You’ll need their full name, bank name, and bank account number. This should be 7–20 digits long.

How much can I send?​

If you are paying from another currency, you can send up to 975,000 MYR per transaction. We may ask for more documents if you send more than 200,000 MYR

 

[stanlawj]

Sending to MYR​

Who can I send MYR to?​

You can send MYR to individual and business bank accounts in Malaysia.

What information do I need about my recipient?​

You’ll need their full name, bank name, and bank account number. This should be 7–20 digits long.

How much can I send?​

If you are paying from another currency, you can send up to 975,000 MYR per transaction. We may ask for more documents if you send more than 200,000 MYR

Then what about this? You need to be registered for WISE outside Singapore.

https://wise.com/help/articles/2978...singapore?origin=topic-5U80whCL1cmJnbIVNGsm3h

Holding and Spending Limits if You Live in Singapore​

According to the Payment Service Act we have to impose holding and spending limits on your Wise account if you've registered with an address in Singapore.
Money kept in Balances and Jars that are held in Interest or Stocks are not subjected to these limits. Business accounts are also not subject to these limits.

What are the limits?​

Hold limit​

You can't hold more than 5,000 SGD or foreign currency equivalent by the end of the day. This includes the money across all your Balances and Jars of any currency that are not held in Interest or Stocks.

You can convert your SGD and/or USD Balances and Jars to either Interest or Stocks to be able to hold as much as you want while getting a return.

Send and spend limit​

You can't send or spend more than 30,000 SGD or foreign currency equivalent from your Balances in a fixed 12 month window. The window starts on April 1st and ends on March 31st of the following year.

This limit includes spending on your Wise card, withdrawing from an overseas ATM, transferring to business local and overseas bank accounts, transferring to other Wise accounts and transferring to another person's overseas bank accounts.

 

[stanlawj]

It is time, for SGD to go up vs MYR.

3.50 is the bottom. Next target: 3.60

 

[sohguanh]

It is time, for SGD to go up vs MYR.

3.50 is the bottom. Next target: 3.60

To me target is 1SGD 5MYR. Daring daring hoot lar!

 

[stanlawj]

To me target is 1SGD 5MYR. Daring daring hoot lar!

SGD moving up nicely so far.

RM5 will not come so quickly, maybe only by 2032.

For info, my opinion is China current recovery will not save Malaysia.
China's dominance in manufacturing will worsen Malaysia's economy.

 

[stanlawj]

The govt "parasite" continues to leech and drain the country.
Hiking public pay, has ramifications on the pension pay as well. This makes the black hole bigger because the proposed new pension reforms do not apply to existing civil servants and politicians. This pay hike

• doesn't improve private sector productivity and exports
• encourages consumption of imports.

thus worsening the deficits.

Malaysia’s Anwar unveils record public pay hike amid ringgit’s slide
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has announced a record hike in civil servants’ pay of more than 13 percent, amid rising prices and a weakening local currency.

In a speech to mark Labour Day on Wednesday, Anwar said 10 billion ringgit ($2.10bn) would be allocated to support the “best increase in history” from December.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2...ls-record-public-pay-hike-amid-ringgits-slide

 

[BBCWatcher]

According to official statistics Malaysia's inflation rate is quite low. It was 1.8% in March, 2024 (year over year). The weaker ringgit isn't showing up yet in the inflation rate.

But there's a reason for that, I think. If you look at the ringgit versus the euro and Japanese yen (as examples) there isn't a huge amount of divergence. It's really a story about a strengthening U.S. dollar in 2024 (so far) — and the strong U.S. dollar affecting the Singapore dollar via the MAS's exchange rate policy choices. Ordinarily U.S. dollar strengthening would eventually feed into higher prices on imported goods and services. However, Malaysia produces a lot of oil and gas (priced and globally traded predominantly in U.S. dollars), so a strong U.S. dollar really doesn't affect Malaysia in that way (unlike Singapore). Imports from the Eurozone and Japan (as examples) really haven't moved much in terms of prices/exchange rates, so that helps Malaysia too.

The U.S. dollar index isn't at its peak, though. It's roughly 106 right now. As recently as late 2022 the U.S. dollar index was higher (114+). The high previous to late 2022 was in 2001 into early 2002 (120+), and the high prior to that 2001-2002 period was in the mid 1980s when the U.S. dollar index shot above 150.

 

[stanlawj]

According to official statistics Malaysia's inflation rate is quite low. It was 1.8% in March, 2024 (year over year). The weaker ringgit isn't showing up yet in the inflation rate.

But there's a reason for that, I think. If you look at the ringgit versus the euro and Japanese yen (as examples) there isn't a huge amount of divergence. It's really a story about a strengthening U.S. dollar in 2024 (so far) — and the strong U.S. dollar affecting the Singapore dollar via the MAS's exchange rate policy choices. Ordinarily U.S. dollar strengthening would eventually feed into higher prices on imported goods and services. However, Malaysia produces a lot of oil and gas (priced and globally traded predominantly in U.S. dollars), so a strong U.S. dollar really doesn't affect Malaysia in that way (unlike Singapore). Imports from the Eurozone and Japan (as examples) really haven't moved much in terms of prices/exchange rates, so that helps Malaysia too.

The U.S. dollar index isn't at its peak, though. It's roughly 106 right now. As recently as late 2022 the U.S. dollar index was higher (114+). The high previous to late 2022 was in 2001 into early 2002 (120+), and the high prior to that 2001-2002 period was in the mid 1980s when the U.S. dollar index shot above 150.

This is short-term factor. Even if the US interest rates fall, it won't fix the underlying weakness of Malaysian economy. It hasn't been fixed since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis. Any strengthening in MYR will just be temporary.

 

[BBCWatcher]

This is short-term factor. Even if the US interest rates fall, it won't fix the underlying weakness of Malaysian economy. It hasn't been fixed since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis. Any strengthening in MYR will just be temporary.

What do you mean? The IMF is currently predicting that Malaysia's 2024 real GDP growth will be 4.4%. Population growth should come in just above 1%, so real per capital GDP growth is expected to be robust. What's wrong with any of that?

 

[stanlawj]

What do you mean? The IMF is currently predicting that Malaysia's 2024 real GDP growth will be 4.4%. Population growth should come in just above 1%, so real per capital GDP growth is expected to be robust. What's wrong with any of that?

How is the real GDP growth achieved? By exporting more low value commodities and low value manufactured products? More consumption?

The projection was made in Dec 2023. Fiscal reform was expected. Now in Apr 2024, is raising civil servants pay part of fiscal reform? Pensions in the future are all hiked as well.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Article...a-imf-staff-completes-2024-article-iv-mission
“The Malaysian economy has weathered external headwinds well and is projected to grow at 4 percent in 2023. Private consumption remained the main driver of growth throughout the year, supported by a healthy labor market. Exports to major trading partners weakened markedly due to subdued external demand and the economic slowdown in China. Headline and core inflation have been moderating, the latter more gradually, with headline inflation projected at 2.9 percent in 2023. Inflation expectations remained well anchored.


“Growth is projected to pick up slightly to 4.3 percent in 2024, supported by resilient private consumption and investment and a rebound in public spending. Inflation is projected to moderate further to 2.7 percent in 2024, though uncertainties around the inflation outlook remain, including on account of subsidy reform.


“A fiscal consolidation path, as appropriately set out in the 2024 Budget, would rebuild buffers, put debt on a downward path, and reduce fiscal risks. It should however be credibly underpinned by high-quality and durable revenue measures. Those measures, chief amongst which could be implementing a carefully designed consumption tax, would create space for critical investment needs and for targeted transfers to low-income households. They will also help buttress market confidence in Malaysia’s strong fundamentals. The authorities’ commitment to fiscal reforms is welcome, including the historic tabling of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the ongoing subsidy reform, and progress on developing a medium-term revenue strategy.


“Monetary policy should pursue a tightening bias in the near term in a data-dependent manner to keep inflation contained and expectations anchored. The tightening bias is warranted by still higher than desirable core inflation and ongoing, yet uncertain, subsidy reform. Enhanced monitoring of household and corporate balance sheets is needed in the current environment of high interest rates, weaker exchange rate, and lower growth. Exchange rate flexibility should continue to be the first line of defense against external shocks.


“Implementation of the concerted policy agenda set out in the MADANI Economy framework, the mid-term review of the Twelfth Malaysia Plan, and accompanying national strategic plans, should accelerate to support medium-term growth and achieve high-income status. The authorities’ policy agenda is appropriately focused on addressing climate change, promoting digitalization, and enhancing governance and anti-corruption reforms. Reforms that would meaningfully lift wages across skill levels and ensure retirement income security should also be prioritized.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Let's take a quick look at several Malaysian ringgit exchange rate pairs now versus January 1, 2024. Data are from OandA.com (rounded).

Euro: 5.09 v. 5.07
Japanese Yen: 33.2 v. 30.7
Vietnamese Dong: 5,320 v. 5,286
Korean Won: 290.7 v. 282.2
Indonesian Rupiah: 3,409 v. 3,352
Indian Rupee: 17.5 v. 18.1
Thai Baht: 7.8 v. 7.5
Philippine Peso: 12.1 v. 12.1
Taiwan dollar: 6.8 v. 6.7

Since the beginning of the year the Malaysian ringgit is stronger or (in one case) flat against all these currencies except the Indian rupee and euro — although against the euro there's scant movement. I picked the beginning of the year for convenience but also because that's about when the latest short-term round of U.S. dollar strengthening has occurred.

 

[BusinessFinancing]

Friend just entered into JB real estate without thinking of the currency depreciation.

For close to 600k spent on a new property there for a weekend home, I don't think this investment will make any senses at all.