General S-REITs Discussion Thread

[starbugs]

It has been a buyer's market this past week for REITs. Entered MLT and FLCT when they reached my target price.

 

[mooseolly]

Reits near all time low, MLT stock crash until lower than Mar 2020. Dividend yield 7% siah.

 

[TehSi99]

Reits near all time low, MLT stock crash until lower than Mar 2020. Dividend yield 7% siah.

market sentiments worse than Mar 2020?

If bought at Mar 2020 and now is worse off? Unbelievable.

 

[mooseolly]

market sentiments worse than Mar 2020?

Not sure but I think people find a better way to park their money it seems.

 

[TehSi99]

Not sure but I think people find a better way to park their money it seems.

Think you make a good point. Think many park their money in Tbill and SSB.

 

[d5dude]

market sentiments worse than Mar 2020?

If bought at Mar 2020 and now is worse off? Unbelievable.

Its about fundamentals, not sentiment.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/a-100-billion-bet-on-china-s-economy-sours-as-warehouses-empty-1.2089470

MLT has 40% exposure to China/HK, iirc.

 

[revhappy]

market sentiments worse than Mar 2020?

If bought at Mar 2020 and now is worse off? Unbelievable.

No. In Mar 2020, there was blood on the street everywhere. The sentiment was that everything would just melt down, so it was absolutely scary.

Now the sentiment is that: "Market will bounce back, this is the bottom, REITs will shoot up as soon as FED announces rate cuts"

But sentiment and reality can be totally different. In mar 2020 sentiment was rock bottom, markets bounced and gave good returns. Now sentiment is at the peak, everyone is expecting FED to cut rates and REITS will sky rocket. But reality?

I think as a thumb rule, during bull markets, you must buy the strongest sector and avoid the weakest sector. Imagine the entire bull market wasted by betting on the wrong sector.

 

[sky1978]

Reits near all time low, MLT stock crash until lower than Mar 2020. Dividend yield 7% siah.

I don't think it has reached 7% using forward estimates; the 7% was based on historical 9c DPU. A few research reports estimate DPU for the coming year to be between 8.4c and 8.7c, so the current yield is approximately 6.5%. There is an outlier report putting the DPU at much lower.

https://sginvestors.io/sgx/reit/m44u-mapletree-log-tr/analyst-report

 

[iceiscold]

No. In Mar 2020, there was blood on the street everywhere. The sentiment was that everything would just melt down, so it was absolutely scary.

Now the sentiment is that: "Market will bounce back, this is the bottom, REITs will shoot up as soon as FED announces rate cuts"

But sentiment and reality can be totally different. In mar 2020 sentiment was rock bottom, markets bounced and gave good returns. Now sentiment is at the peak, everyone is expecting FED to cut rates and REITS will sky rocket. But reality?

I think as a thumb rule, during bull markets, you must buy the strongest sector and avoid the weakest sector. Imagine the entire bull market wasted by betting on the wrong sector.

One year ago everyone also saying stock market doomed snp going to crash until Armageddon. Now? Just buy and hold and enjoy the dividend. Downside lesser than upside. I’m all in REITs for the next 2-3 years. The best time to buy is when everyone say it’s the end.

 

[revhappy]

One year ago everyone also saying stock market doomed snp going to crash until Armageddon. Now? Just buy and hold and enjoy the dividend. Downside lesser than upside. I’m all in REITs for the next 2-3 years. The best time to buy is when everyone say it’s the end.

Nobody is saying it is the end. Maybe REITs are uncorrelated to traditional stock markets. I read this book by Bill Bernstein called The Four Pillars of Investing and he suggested to nvest 15% into REITs because in the previous century, when stock markets crashed REITs actually performed well.

COVID crash, everything was correlated. But maybe if we get a recession next time, FED cuts rates and REITs will do well?

Anyways I don't recommend heavy allocation into REITs, most SG bloggers like Kyith have given up on that strategy and even @Dividends Warrior tried his hand at Tech investing to diversify away from REITs. But this is the bane of stock pickers of a particular style, they know only one kind of investing and they are good at it, but if the investment climate no long suits that style, they are unable to pivot, because this is their core skill.

I admire Kyith now because he changed with the times and gave up on dividend investing and got into global index investing. Giving up your core forte is not easy.

In global index investing what do you do? Your biggest achievement would be to stay away from monitoring the markets and companies. This is the most difficult thing to do for stock pickers

Stock picking used to work during Warren Buffets younger days when markets were inefficient. Maybe SG and HK markets are still inefficient and stock picking still works, but do you want to restrict yourself to only SG market or HK market?

 

[d5dude]

One year ago everyone also saying stock market doomed snp going to crash until Armageddon. Now? Just buy and hold and enjoy the dividend. Downside lesser than upside. I’m all in REITs for the next 2-3 years. The best time to buy is when everyone say it’s the end.

S&P is a broad market index, many stocks within the index did indeed end up crashing and they have not recovered much even though the index is at an all time high, this is the risk of stock picking. The odds of picking winners are not good as well, 90% of the stocks out there do no better than a 3mth treasury over the long run, it’s the hundred baggers that carry the index in the end

 

[stanlawj]

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/am...ndustrial-parks-grappling-surprising-slowdown

Chinese warehouses, industrial parks grappling with surprising slowdown​

In many parts of China, the warehouses and industrial parks that used to be a magnet for international investors are grappling with a surprising slowdown in business activity.

Logistics hubs that were built in anticipation of a long-lasting boom in e-commerce, manufacturing and food storage are losing tenants, forcing building owners to slash rents and shorten lease terms. Shares of real estate investment trusts that own China commercial properties have plummeted, and some of their managers expect their rental income to fall further.

Average vacancy rates at logistics properties in east and north China are approaching 20%, the highest in years, according to real estate consultancies. More warehouses are being built, which is making the problem worse. “We are looking at a supply glut in logistics and industrial properties in China,” said Xavier Lee, an equity analyst at Morningstar who covers the real estate sector.

The deterioration has been disappointing for property owners that were counting on an economic rebound in China this year. Global institutions have collectively invested more than US$100 billion ($135 billion) in warehouses, industrial buildings, office towers and other Chinese commercial real estate over the past decade, according to data from MSCI Real Capital Analytics.

The foreign investors include Blackstone, Prudential Financial Inc.’s PGIM, Singapore’s GIC and CapitaLand Group, among others.

A few institutions are contemplating divestments of their worst-performing assets before rents fall further. Others intend to wait out the downturn and expect to make money in the long run.

 

[DevilPlate]

No. In Mar 2020, there was blood on the street everywhere. The sentiment was that everything would just melt down, so it was absolutely scary.

Now the sentiment is that: "Market will bounce back, this is the bottom, REITs will shoot up as soon as FED announces rate cuts"

But sentiment and reality can be totally different. In mar 2020 sentiment was rock bottom, markets bounced and gave good returns. Now sentiment is at the peak, everyone is expecting FED to cut rates and REITS will sky rocket. But reality?

I think as a thumb rule, during bull markets, you must buy the strongest sector and avoid the weakest sector. Imagine the entire bull market wasted by betting on the wrong sector.

I been slowly accumulating IDTL whenever it corrects downwards….

Imo it is a better bet if u believe in rate cuts and also can hedge against blackswan event (except 70s hyperinflation scenario)

*Not my long term hold due to unsustainably high US national debt level.

 

[weng0202]

I'm splitting my monthly investment to 50% reits with strong sponsor and 50% into S&P500.

 

[TehSi99]

I'm splitting my monthly investment to 50% reits with strong sponsor and 50% into S&P500.

Yes, need to invest into Reits with strong sponsors in high interest rate environment. Unfortunately, reits are still going down.

 

[TehSi99]

S&P is a broad market index, many stocks within the index did indeed end up crashing and they have not recovered much even though the index is at an all time high, this is the risk of stock picking. The odds of picking winners are not good as well, 90% of the stocks out there do no better than a 3mth treasury over the long run, it’s the hundred baggers that carry the index in the end

Stock picking needs research and understanding of the business/ industry. It is a skill not easy to learn. And I am not just saying like simply knowing how to reach the company's reports.

 

[weng0202]

Yes, need to invest into Reits with strong sponsors in high interest rate environment. Unfortunately, reits are still going down.

As long as fundermentals remain good. Just collect on the way down. Seems like reits with more China exposure are going down a lot more. The rest seems not too bad.

 

[d5dude]

Yes, need to invest into Reits with strong sponsors in high interest rate environment. Unfortunately, reits are still going down.

Strong sponsor will only lower cost of financing, it won’t change business fundamentals, Mapletree just issued a 20 yr bond at 3.88% yield, that’s nearly as low as what they were pre Covid (2019), I doubt interest expense will go down significantly unless the fed cuts to zero again, that’d take their financing cost down to sub 3%, but what are the odds?

Stock picking needs research and understanding of the business/ industry. It is a skill not easy to learn. And I am not just saying like simply knowing how to reach the company's reports.

My pt was that single stock investing is a totally different thing compared to investing in broad market index. ACWI will almost certainly recover at some pt after a huge crash, we cannot say the same thing for single stocks.

As long as fundermentals remain good. Just collect on the way down. Seems like reits with more China exposure are going down a lot more. The rest seems not too bad.

That’s right, REITs like FCT and CICT remain resilient, they are mostly moving sideways.

 

[weng0202]

Strong sponsor will only lower cost of financing, it won’t change business fundamentals, Mapletree just issued a 20 yr bond at 3.88% yield, that’s nearly as low as what they were pre Covid (2019), I doubt interest expense will go down significantly unless the fed cuts to zero again, that’d take their financing cost down to sub 3%, but what are the odds?


My pt was that single stock investing is a totally different thing compared to investing in broad market index. ACWI will almost certainly recover at some pt after a huge crash, we cannot say the same thing for single stocks.


That’s right, REITs like FCT and CICT remain resilient, they are mostly moving sideways.

Yeah the two reits are in my to buy list.

 

[highsulphur]

My ETF is almost 3% down in a month since I bought. Haven't doubt whether I made the right call and whether should cut and buy DBS instead