USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[twosix]

wah sey u actually spent 6k simmons mattress but scrimp on $30 running shoes?
u say till deca shoes so good, later i mus go and try try

Me Dunlops, 4stars, KingKoil mattress can liao (their higher end ones tho) and spent $70-80 on skechers.

Friend, sleep is the most important part of life. Good sleep means can longer and faster. I’m will not save on things that brings health to me. $30 decathlon shoes is really good for me. Why I want to spend more if I am comfy with it? Same for tires. Why run flats when turanza gr80 is more comfortable and quiet?

 

[stanlawj]

Upcoming events:
Aug 24: Jackson Hole symposium
Aug 30: Core PCE (FOMC pays attention to this).
Sept 6: Unemployment rate
Sept 11: CPI
Sept 19: FOMC meeting (1st 25bps rate cut - already priced in)

I predict stock market to rally until Sept 13. Beyond that, I'm doubtful.

 

[d9_lives]

Ima start taking profit from tonight.
Anyone here is holding amd, nvidia, avago and nu holding?
Are you cutting or keep riding it?

 

[DevilPlate]

Friend, sleep is the most important part of life. Good sleep means can longer and faster. I’m will not save on things that brings health to me. $30 decathlon shoes is really good for me. Why I want to spend more if I am comfy with it? Same for tires. Why run flats when turanza gr80 is more comfortable and quiet?

My 2k King size KingKoil good enough leh….
Can also afford to change new mattress every 7-8years or even earlier also wun feel heartpain hahaha

If sleep till so good mattress, scarly go holiday totally cannot tahan hotel beds how? Whahahaha

Btw, i also not a brand whxre……comfy shoes enough cushion….no blisters after many hours walking OK liao regardless of price or brand….

Tires i always go for Jap brands…..trustworthy peace of mind….no need branded Michelin hahahah

 

[DevilPlate]

Upcoming events:
Aug 24: Jackson Hole symposium
Aug 30: Core PCE (FOMC pays attention to this).
Sept 6: Unemployment rate
Sept 11: CPI
Sept 19: FOMC meeting (1st 25bps rate cut - already priced in)

I predict stock market to rally until Sept 13. Beyond that, I'm doubtful.

Im actually expecting market to rally from Sept19 and hit ATH around 6k for SPY
Then after that might drop/crash watever lol

 

[stanlawj]

Im actually expecting market to rally from Sept19 and hit ATH around 6k for SPY
Then after that might drop/crash watever lol

I don't think so because the rally has been brought forward much earlier.

 

[stanlawj]

Ima start taking profit from tonight.
Anyone here is holding amd, nvidia, avago and nu holding?
Are you cutting or keep riding it?

Don't bother asking others... most ppl tend to overstay because they like their account PnL more than the $ they can cash out.

After selling you should not regret because this last rally is very tricky to time the exit. Any pullback can turn into a crash. If BoJ's next rate hike is still scheduled in 2025, then it is likely all speculative short JPY long XXX trades will be slowly unwound over the next 3 months.

 

[twosix]

My 2k King size KingKoil good enough leh….
Can also afford to change new mattress every 7-8years or even earlier also wun feel heartpain hahaha

If sleep till so good mattress, scarly go holiday totally cannot tahan hotel beds how? Whahahaha

If it's good for you, then continue with the brand. Same for buying stocks, i buy that can long. I dun trade usually.

And yes, if the hotel bed is too soft, i cannot sleep well. What to do? Life is not perfect. Haha.

 

[d9_lives]

Don't bother asking others... most ppl tend to overstay because they like their account PnL more than the $ they can cash out.

After selling you should not regret because this last rally is very tricky to time the exit. Any pullback can turn into a crash. If BoJ's next rate hike is still scheduled in 2025, then it is likely all speculative short JPY long XXX trades will be slowly unwound over the next 3 months.

Yeah, I will prob.sell all and switch to csp.
Just keep riding PLTR and SOFI.

+ >25% in a week is....wild.
I feel like a genius with my ALL IN during the dip but it's time to take some profit off the table. Not going to repeat my mistake in 2021.

 

[sohguanh]

Yeah, I will prob.sell all and switch to csp.
Just keep riding PLTR and SOFI.

+ >25% in a week is....wild.
I feel like a genius with my ALL IN during the dip but it's time to take some profit off the table. Not going to repeat my mistake in 2021.

US stock play the capital gain game. Need sell periodically. This is my strategy for US stock, ETF

 

[stanlawj]

Yeah, I will prob.sell all and switch to csp.
Just keep riding PLTR and SOFI.

+ >25% in a week is....wild.
I feel like a genius with my ALL IN during the dip but it's time to take some profit off the table. Not going to repeat my mistake in 2021.

Take alot of cash out, then put them on your bed and roll in it.

Then give your wife & children a treat.
Better than buy back in the market and then lose money to strangers.
Currently I'm trying to cash out regularly at quarterly intervals, but seems rather hard...usually only cashing out every 6 months or so due to getting stuck for months.

 

[d9_lives]

Take alot of cash out, then put them on your bed and roll in it.

Then give your wife & children a treat.
Better than buy back in the market and then lose money to strangers.
Currently I'm trying to cash out regularly at quarterly intervals, but seems rather hard...usually only cashing out every 6 months or so due to getting stuck for months.

Last night, I took profits on nu, nike, and nvidia right at the open.
But before I went to sleep, I "accidentally" bought even more calls on NU and Nike again.

Don't know what have been possessing me. I think I have an addiction, might need help ‍
Gonna try selling again tonight.

 

[stanlawj]

You make investment decisions based on a video of a tiny town thats in the middle of nowhere in America?



I think you will probably have the impression that China's economy is going to zero if you have watch some of the YT videos on China, its mostly sensationalized for views, nothing more.

So how? On-the-ground intel doesn't match the BLS now?
818,000 jobs lost.

 

[wutawa]

Ima start taking profit from tonight.
Anyone here is holding amd, nvidia, avago and nu holding?
Are you cutting or keep riding it?

I bought nvda just before split. +6% now. Gonna hold for a few years

 

[d9_lives]

I bought nvda just before split. +6% now. Gonna hold for a few years

Don't just keep it.
Sell weeklies for a few free nike shoes.
Next week is juicy af.

 

[haddington21]

 

[d5dude]

So how? On-the-ground intel doesn't match the BLS now?
818,000 jobs lost.

What does this have to do with the video? It said nothing about the labour market.

Also I never said that the US economy was that strong, in fact I have been predicting the economy should slow down quickly and inflation should tank since the fed hiked rates to a whopping 5.38% last year, now its obvious that they are behind the curve yet again, just like they were back in 2021.

 

[final1]

-818,000 jobs created from April 2023 to march 2024. In other words, wrong and inflated figures (why huh?) were reported for a year. That's almost a million jobs. How can they make such a 'mistake'? BLS are supposed to be professional statisticians like Singapore department of statistics. I think i know why.

 

[stanlawj]

What does this have to do with the video? It said nothing about the labour market.

Also I never said that the US economy was that strong, in fact I have been predicting the economy should slow down quickly and inflation should tank since the fed hiked rates to a whopping 5.38% last year, now its obvious that they are behind the curve yet again, just like they were back in 2021.

You
1. said revisions are normal, whereas this -818k revision is ABNORMAL compared to past TEN YEARS
2. said it is a CONSPIRACY THEORY that BLS fabricating data (jobs overestimated by statistical manipulation) but the latest revision supports this theory
3. the video of the change in retail traffic and shops open at Louisiana Boardwalk, one of the largest retail outlet in Louisiana, is not relevant indication of LABOUR MARKET because it is in the MIDDLE OF NOWHERE

And you also said in April 2024, that the JOBS MARKET IS BOOMING and regular 401k is boosting the stock market.

What makes you think people cant afford stocks? Unemployment rate is so low and the jobs market is just booming now, just regular 401k contributions alone would be a huge boost to the market.

Also remember the US stock market is a global market, it was reported that lots of Asian investors were interested in US AI companies about a year ago.

I think unless we see the stupid stuff like ARKK surge again, its quite clear that this thing is not driven by leverage.

But I maintain that this stock market is levitated mostly by options trading, with passive investing contributing to some of the rise, but not as much as options call buying.

Now you suddenly change your tune: economy should slow down quickly and Fed is behind the curve.

So the stock market should have crashed right, because there is actually not enough jobs added to support the passive investing flow?

 

[d5dude]

You
1. said revisions are normal, whereas this -818k revision is ABNORMAL compared to past TEN YEARS
2. said CONSPIRACY THEORY that BLS fabricating data (jobs overestimated by statistical manipulation) but the latest revision supports this theory
3. the video of the change in retail traffic and shops open at Louisiana Boardwalk, one of the largest retail outlet in Louisiana, is not relevant indication of LABOUR MARKET because it is in the MIDDLE OF NOWHERE

And also you said in April 2024, that the JOBS MARKET IS BOOMING and regular 401k is boosting the stock market.


Now you suddenly change your tune as say, economy should slow down quickly and Fed is behind the curve.

The difference between you and me as I'm making statements about what is coming ahead, whereas you're making statements about the present or past, and then framing my statements as incorrect.

Of course, my forward-looking statements appear wrong now. How to be an investor if you cannot run to where the puck skates to? Run to where the puck is at now? You'll miss the puck.

Yeah.. conspiracy theory ends like this: Market is going to crash during Trump's presidency as the statistics will be manipulated to be as bad as possible. BoJ hiking rates thus stopping further JPY carry trades will further withdraw liquidity from US market.

Why is this so unusual? They were also revised higher by a few hundred K back in 2022, so was the US govt also "fabricating" the numbers back then? To make the economy look worse during Biden's term? What conspiracy theories do you have to explain this?

US labour force is 153 million, a few hundred thousand is literally a drop in the bucket, it will take much more than this to move the unemployment rate significantly higher than where it is right now. Bear in mind that 4.3% unemployment rate is still extremely low compared to historical norms, the median is well over 5%.

The video is just a small town in US, it doesnt tell us anything about the US labour market. Like other countries, many places in the US have been in decline for years, even before covid.

The post that you cherry picked is just funny, why dun you dig out the countless other posts when I literally called the 10 yr yield peak because I thought rates were too high? For many months I have been saying the fed needs to cut before they do damage to the economy.

Yes I thought the labour market was strong back in Apr and I still think its strong now, just not as good as I thought. Dun forget that these are just revisions, they still added 174k jobs per month on average from Apr 2023 to Mar 2024. This is around long term trend growth for the US labour market, 178k jobs were also added per month back in 2019, pre covid.

The difference between you and me is that I dun flip flop every 5 seconds, look at your post history ffs, its literally a joke. One day you talk about how inflation is going to keep going up, a few weeks later inflation is no longer a problem, but perhaps understandably so since you trade so often, you need to come up with new narratives/conspiracy theories to support your new positions.