USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

30% cash/tbills/SSB is like 70/30, your allocation to stocks is actually quite high, IIRC you are quite old right?

I'm currently at 55/45 because I follow a fixed formula of 105 - age, according to you I should be very bearish but thats not how it works.

Allocation to risk should be according to age, risk tolerance, etc. Most people will do very poorly over the long run if they try to time the market. Just look at the performance of global macro funds over the last few decades, 99% of them have performed very poorly, you cant predict what the market will do even if you are able to predict the macro environment.

Bonds such as SGS,A35,MBH, TLT are excluded.

My cash/FD/SSB alone about 35% liao

My equity portion about 30% only….whahaha

 

[DevilPlate]

Yen carry trade unwind = Yen up/dollar down. Why'd the BOJ need any dollar liquidity when they can have all they want from the market? Also I'm not sure what this has to do with you being bearish and long stocks at the same time. You'd have cognitive dissonance if you truly believed that a market crash is coming, its either that or you just dun have any conviction in your crash call, maybe deep down you know you are just like everyone else i.e "nobody knows anything but since stocks go up 80% of the time I should just be long".




I actually hold very little cash now, most of the non-equity portion are in bonds, which have done very well recently. Holding cash only makes sense if one is trading very frequently, for everyone else its usually a bad idea to hold cash instead of bonds unless yields get really low.

What bond funds u bought?
Mine only IDTL did fairly OK recently only….MBH slowly up up

 

[d5dude]

Bonds such as SGS,A35,MBH, TLT are excluded.

My cash/FD/SSB alone about 35% liao

My equity portion about 30% only….whahaha

Super conservative… you retired?

What bond funds u bought?
Mine only IDTL did fairly OK recently only….MBH slowly up up

Some A35 and LQDE, most bonds in my portfolio are wholesale SGD denominated bonds. Yields have really tanked recently, the speed is quite astounding.

 

[DevilPlate]

Super conservative… you retired?


Some A35 and LQDE, most bonds in my portfolio are wholesale SGD denominated bonds. Yields have really tanked recently, the speed is quite astounding.

So can i say wholesale sgd bonds sum up quite similar to MBH?

my real estate portfolio are much bigger though.

and yes retired few years ago

 

[elvintay07]

So can i say wholesale sgd bonds sum up quite similar to MBH?

my real estate portfolio are much bigger though.

and yes retired few years ago

Super powerful sifu

 

[stanlawj]

Is this another AI mania?
NVIDIA GPU purse/handbag!!
It's not fake -> https://gpupurse.com/

 

[d5dude]

So can i say wholesale sgd bonds sum up quite similar to MBH?

my real estate portfolio are much bigger though.

and yes retired few years ago

Not really similar. MBH holds quite a bit of AT1s/TLACs in its portfolio, I dun deal with these since theres always the risk of getting totally wiped out e.g credit suisse.

 

[stanlawj]

The AI bubble/mania growth story:

Short-term (1 to 5 years), natural gas is the preferred power source for US AI datacenters. Missing from the above roadmap, is the optics interconnection upgrade, for multi-datacentre AI training.

 

[apple459721]

Usdsgd now like shet, worse than 5aug yen carry trade, wtf

 

[sohguanh]

Usdsgd now like shet, worse than 5aug yen carry trade, wtf

Now is good time to change more SGD into USD if you intend to use USD. Other forum ppl pulling out as US market bad and they complain the lousy rates as 1 USD get so little SGD. This is wrong strategy IMHO.

 

[apple459721]

Usdsgd now like shet, worse than 5aug yen carry trade, wtf

Knn another new decade low after nfp

Usd Really keep dropping like shet

at this rate will break 2011 low liao

 

[sohguanh]

Knn another new decade low after nfp

Usd Really keep dropping like shet

at this rate will break 2011 low liao

Well another reader in this forum thread say 1 USD 2.50 SGD for future hahaha

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/...0-market-watch.7025556/page-10#post-153580675

 

[stanlawj]

6 Month UST yield drop below 4.7%, suggesting 0.50% rate cut in any one of the remaining 3 FOMC meetings in 2024.

2yr10yr yield curve un-inversion is complete.
1yr10yr yield curve not yet but moving rapidly to un-invert soon (currently -0.43%).

 

[d9_lives]

I wanted to borrow some money from my wife's bf to buy the dip but then I remember, the MM doomsayers, bears and doom prophets haven't come out of the woodwork to gloat yet.
I am waiting....

 

[d9_lives]

Ur wife’s a sIut?

Not as big a slu.t as your mom though.

 

[apple459721]

Not as big a slu.t as your mom though.

how many bf's ur wife she got?

 

[Shiny Things]

I'm long. No shorts.

But if you think there's going to be a crash (as I read your post, you're saying you think the mag7 are gonna puke, and XAUJPY is gonna puke), why not get short?

 

[stanlawj]

But if you think there's going to be a crash (as I read your post, you're saying you think the mag7 are gonna puke, and XAUJPY is gonna puke), why not get short?

I think the crash is still very far off in 2025.

But yesterday, JPY strengthen, XLRE is up... everything else I mentioned in the Yenmageddon mostly going down... smells of someone Japanese is taking the opportunity to sell and deleverage early out of US assets now. Or someone trying to front-run the Japanese based on this news below.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ull-scale-japan-bond-buying-if-yields-hit-1-2

MUFG to Consider ‘Full Scale’ Japan Bond Buying If Yields Hit 1.2%​

• BOJ may raise rates as soon as December, markets head says
• Sees business opportunities in Japan’s power trading market

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. will consider shifting more of its $488 billion securities portfolio into Japanese government bonds when yields reach 1.2%, as it expects the central bank to continue raising interest rates.

Japan’s biggest lender will weigh “full-scale investment” in domestic sovereign notes when 10-year yields and overnight index swaps reach that level, said Hiroyuki Seki, head of MUFG’s markets business. The bank could move ¥5 trillion to ¥10 trillion ($35 billion to $70 billion) from its central bank reserves into bonds, Seki said. Ten-year JGBs now yield a little under 0.9%.

--------------------

MUFG is an investment bank. Correlating to this MUFJ Trust manager, here are the recent 13F filings:
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/mitsubishi-ufj-trust-banking-corp

Top Sells (13F) (for Q2 2024)​

By Change in % Portfolio
By Largest Value

Name	$ Change
AVGO Broadcom Ltd. (Avago	$-0.80b
ETR Entergy Corp.	$-203m
TIP iShares TIPS Bond ET	$-194m
NVDA NVIDIA Corp.	$-178m
MSFT Microsoft Corp.	$-165m

Last night provided the definitive evidence for the crash in 2025 that is NOT a conspiracy theory: "Yenmageddon" BoJ hiking rates causing more unwinding of any short JPY positions.

This year, BoJ won't hike rates yet, because latest Japan CPI is only 2.7% annualised (BoJ core CPI 1.8%).
Wait for all their core CPI to jump to annualized 3% next year.
Then BoJ will be forced to act and raise rates. This will trigger the continuation of the August crash:

• US big cap tech stocks (Mag7)
• SMH
• Tech countries: Nikkei, Taiwan & Kospi stocks
• Commodity mining stocks
• AUD
• CAD

UST bond crash will be postponed again as US stocks crash and drive more UST buying. This seems to be a nice opportunity for US Treasury Dept to issue more longer-term bonds at lower interest rates.

Utilities and SREITS will be the best performers. Gold and BTC may drop alittle, but mostly stay unchanged while XAUJPY will drop more significantly.

Let me put this on record and see what happens next year.

 

[sohguanh]

It was a massacre this week for US stocks. Even a resident reader in the other thread he started hinting to earn lesser means selling away I would presume? He says "While this may result in missing some moves, it is always better to earn less than to have to work to recover from an overexposed loss position." Play big win big or lose big nothing wrong with his phrase actually.

I am into US fractional shares so it is not huge impact to my US earnings yet. I intend to change more USD for next coming weeks.

Btw my other SReit now all green colour. Diversification among assets geography etc is quite important IMHO.

 

[yslvlys]

Fired a few bullets this week to buy DOCU, Dave and PAYC.