USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[stanlawj]

State of American consumer: split into 2 tracks
A: Asset rich: benefit from high rates, high stock prices (stock options, bonuses), and low mortgage rates.
B: Asset poor: disposable income obliterated by high prices due to cumulative inflation effect since post-Covid.

This is known as the K-shaped economy.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/k-shaped-recovery/#:~:text=A K-shaped recovery is,and technologies during the recession.

Record 401(k) account balances reported by Fidelity Investments

Desperation of job-seekers

 

[endlssorrow]

any got buy motley fool ??

 

[twosix]

any got buy motley fool ??

dun believe that website lah... it was recommending to buy super computer recently before it laosai. really jialat.

 

[Trader11]

Already feel much better since last night. Everything just stonk!
All 3 accounts hit all time high.
Nvidia needs to drop a bit more so I can get assigned
i don't mind holding nvidia @115

How's your NU? Superb right?

Shark ninja is awesome for me

 

[endlssorrow]

dun believe that website lah... it was recommending to buy super computer recently before it laosai. really jialat.

Their etf lei

 

[Jirachi]

How's your NU? Superb right?

Shark ninja is awesome for me

Nu Holdings?

 

[d9_lives]

How's your NU? Superb right?

Shark ninja is awesome for me

NU beri beri Superb!
Sold it too early last night and It climbed another 2%.
Anyway profit is profit.

Shark Ninja?

What's your next week play?
I got gitlab and zscaler on tue.

 

[Trader11]

NU beri beri Superb!
Sold it too early last night and It climbed another 2%.
Anyway profit is profit.

Shark Ninja?

What's your next week play?
I got gitlab and zscaler on tue.

My medium term play is ONON and SN

 

[stanlawj]

6-month UST yield (4.8%) suggests 0.75% rate cut coming ahead.
0.25% in each FOMC (Sept, Nov, Dec).

10yr-2yr UST yield spread now 0%, about to flip positive.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

EPB Research has a recession indicator that works 7 out of past 8 times.
https://epbresearch.substack.com/p/a-coincident-indicator-of-the-labor

Measured starting from 5 JULY near last peak before Aug crash: (positive means fully recovered from crash, negative means did not recover from the crash)
XHB +19.8% (Homebuilders)
XLRE +13.7% (Real Estate)
XLU +11.3% (Utilities)
XBI +10% (Biotech)
XLF +10% (Financials)
XLV +8.7% (Healthcare)
XLI +8.5% (Industrials)
XLB +7.3% (Materials)
XLP +6.6% (Consumer Staples)
XRT +3.9% (Retail)
SPX +2% (SP500)
XLE +1.3% (Energy)
XLC -0.5% (Communications)
XLY -1.2% (Consumer Discretionary)
XLK -5.4% (Technology)

 

[stanlawj]

Rotation out of Mag7 has started and will pick up speed over the next 3 months (Oct - Dec) as the Fed delivers 0.25% rate cut each FOMC.

 

[sohguanh]

Rotation out of Mag7 has started and will pick up speed over the next 3 months (Oct - Dec) as the Fed delivers 0.25% rate cut each FOMC.

Rotating play has always been around. Key is always to be into that sector before it comes into play. When you read news of which is the upcoming sector theme maybe too late. My own observation. But of cuz some ppl feel once news released I first to join in still in the game and that is fine.

E.g the S-Reit news and this forum S-Reit thread increased activity is one classic example. I am in before (can refer my posts posted date) and now most are green colour left two red colour.

 

[elvintay07]

6-month UST yield (4.8%) suggests 0.75% rate cut coming ahead.
0.25% in each FOMC (Sept, Nov, Dec).

10yr-2yr UST yield spread now 0%, about to flip positive.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

EPB Research has a recession indicator that works 7 out of past 8 times.
https://epbresearch.substack.com/p/a-coincident-indicator-of-the-labor

Measured starting from 5 JULY near last peak before Aug crash: (positive means fully recovered from crash, negative means did not recover from the crash)
XHB +19.8% (Homebuilders)
XLRE +13.7% (Real Estate)
XLU +11.3% (Utilities)
XBI +10% (Biotech)
XLF +10% (Financials)
XLV +8.7% (Healthcare)
XLI +8.5% (Industrials)
XLB +7.3% (Materials)
XLP +6.6% (Consumer Staples)
XRT +3.9% (Retail)
SPX +2% (SP500)
XLE +1.3% (Energy)
XLC -0.5% (Communications)
XLY -1.2% (Consumer Discretionary)
XLK -5.4% (Technology)

I only bought these 3.
XBI +10% (Biotech)
XLF +10% (Financials)
XLV +8.7% (Healthcare)

 

[stanlawj]

Rotating play has always been around. Key is always to be into that sector before it comes into play. When you read news of which is the upcoming sector theme maybe too late. My own observation. But of cuz some ppl feel once news released I first to join in still in the game and that is fine.

E.g the S-Reit news and this forum S-Reit thread increased activity is one classic example. I am in before (can refer my posts posted date) and now most are green colour left two red colour.

Aug crash was a good entry point for those who missed the rotation that started since March 2024.

 

[Jirachi]

NU beri beri Superb!

Never underestimate FInTech targeting the unbanked.

 

[Jirachi]

Rotation out of Mag7

Yes. It is time for Consumer Cyclicals.

 

[Jirachi]

Aug crash was a good entry point for those who missed the rotation that started since March 2024.

August crash also saw people freaking out and panic selling rather than adding

 

[stanlawj]

Yes. It is time for Consumer Cyclicals.

What do you mean by Consumer Cyclicals? It's not the same as Consumer Staples.

 

[stanlawj]

This is not scary enough. You got scarier conspiracy theories than this?

Last night provided the definitive evidence for the crash in 2025 that is NOT a conspiracy theory: "Yenmageddon" BoJ hiking rates causing more unwinding of any short JPY positions.

This year, BoJ won't hike rates yet, because latest Japan CPI is only 2.7% annualised (BoJ core CPI 1.8%).
Wait for all their core CPI to jump to annualized 3% next year.
Then BoJ will be forced to act and raise rates. This will trigger the continuation of the August crash:

• US big cap tech stocks (Mag7)
• SMH
• Tech countries: Nikkei, Taiwan & Kospi stocks
• Commodity mining stocks
• AUD
• CAD

UST bond crash will be postponed again as US stocks crash and drive more UST buying. This seems to be a nice opportunity for US Treasury Dept to issue more longer-term bonds at lower interest rates.

Utilities and SREITS will be the best performers. Gold and BTC may drop alittle, but mostly stay unchanged while XAUJPY will drop more significantly.

Let me put this on record and see what happens next year.

 

[Shiny Things]

Last night provided the definitive evidence for the crash in 2025 that is NOT a conspiracy theory:
BoJ hiking rates causing more unwinding of any short JPY positions.
[....]

Utilities and SREITS will be the best performers. Gold and BTC may drop alittle, but mostly stay unchanged while XAUJPY will drop more significantly.

Let me put this on record and see what happens next year.

So are you short?

 

[stanlawj]

So are you short?

I'm long. No shorts.

Market now possibly trying to guess between a soft landing and hard landing of US economy. Yesterday, there was a BoJ statement about rate hike coming (which will contribute towards a harder landing). Sell-off also partly due to whale selling Nvidia (related to the DoJ) triggering cross-market correlations.