USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[d5dude]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/trump-says-hes-not-even-looking-at-stock-market.html

May be time to consider the possibility that theres actually no "trump put", even if theres one the strike price is most likely not anywhere near current levels.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/trump-us-experience-period-transition-economy-see-recession-year

President Donald Trump declined to explicitly rule out a full-blown recession for the U.S. economy this year, telling Maria Bartiromo in a recent "Sunday Morning Futures" exclusive that the country will see a "period of transition" as his policies take effect.

"Period of transition" = pain for the stock market. No idea what is Trump's pain threshold when it comes to stock market selloffs but I suspect it will be far higher than Trump 1.0. Everyone got blindsided by this POS again.

 

[DevilPlate]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/trump-us-experience-period-transition-economy-see-recession-year

President Donald Trump declined to explicitly rule out a full-blown recession for the U.S. economy this year, telling Maria Bartiromo in a recent "Sunday Morning Futures" exclusive that the country will see a "period of transition" as his policies take effect.

"Period of transition" = pain for the stock market. No idea what is Trump's pain threshold when it comes to stock market selloffs but I suspect it will be far higher than Trump 1.0. Everyone got blindsided by this POS again.

Trump impossible to succeed/achieve austerity within 2-4years.
He mentioned XJP having a long runway tho lolol

 

[d5dude]

Trump impossible to succeed/achieve austerity within 2-4years.
He mentioned XJP having a long runway tho lolol

He is not looking for austerity, that one is Elon Musk's fetish. Trump is looking to reshore US manufacturing, thats likely to take many years, that is if its even possible at all.

My guess is Trump is still sore about losing the 2020 election, he was "the stock market president" but that didnt help him win so he feels betrayed. His new obsession is reshoring, which makes more sense since his base tends to be the people who got hurt by globalisation and the hollowing out of American manufacturing.

 

[DevilPlate]

He is not looking for austerity, that one is Elon Musk's fetish. Trump is looking to reshore US manufacturing, thats likely to take many years, that is if its even possible at all.

My guess is Trump is still sore about losing the 2020 election, he was "the stock market president" but that didnt help him win so he feels betrayed. His new obsession is reshoring, which makes more sense since his base tends to be the people who got hurt by globalisation and the hollowing out of American manufacturing.

Elon under him leh…..so shd also be part of his plan.
Imo, they need to show smthing to the world that US is able repay their debts else nobody is buying their long term bond liao

 

[d5dude]

Elon under him leh…..so shd also be part of his plan.
Imo, they need to show smthing to the world that US is able repay their debts else nobody is buying their long term bond liao

Dun think it has much to do with their fiscal situation, there are countries with worse fiscal positions but there are still buyers. There will always be buyers, question is price only.

And Musk is only an "advisor" to the govt, he cannot make any decisions to cut spending, he can only point out possible savings for the govt to implement. Ultimately the biggest problem with the budget is still entitlements, they wont be able to reduce the deficit by much unless they make cuts to social security, medicare and medicaid, those add up to nearly 3T.

 

[DevilPlate]

Dun think it has much to do with their fiscal situation, there are countries with worse fiscal positions but there are still buyers. There will always be buyers, question is price only.

And Musk is only an "advisor" to the govt, he cannot make any decisions to cut spending, he can only point out possible savings for the govt to implement. Ultimately the biggest problem with the budget is still entitlements, they wont be able to reduce the deficit by much unless they make cuts to social security, medicare and medicaid, those add up to nearly 3T.

Yes, u mentioned about bond yield. They want to issue cheap cheap long term bonds again to spend.
Interest payment alone now exceed their defence budget. Whahahaha

Impossible to reduce national debts in nominal terms but maybe possible to reduce their debt to gdp ratio

 

[stanlawj]

"Period of transition" = pain for the stock market. No idea what is Trump's pain threshold when it comes to stock market selloffs but I suspect it will be far higher than Trump 1.0. Everyone got blindsided by this POS again.

You're laughing. Evil guy,... I remembered you rotated to bonds, didn't you?

I think stocks look fully valued right now, I wouldnt be aggressively buying stocks at this level for sure, bonds (belly of the curve) look safer to me in the short run.

 

[d5dude]

Yes, u mentioned about bond yield. They want to issue cheap cheap long term bonds again to spend.
Interest payment alone now exceed their defence budget. Whahahaha

Impossible to reduce national debts in nominal terms but maybe possible to reduce their debt to gdp ratio

Not to spend but to reduce the annual fiscal deficit. Annual interest payments = 1T now, its the biggest item in the budget.

 

[d5dude]

You're laughing. Evil guy,... I remembered you rotated to bonds, didn't you?

I also got blindsided, didnt figure this out until recently.

That post was in response to somebody asking me if it was a good idea to put new money in bonds vs stocks back in Nov/Dec. My own portfolio is rule based, I sold US equities in Dec because my portfolio had become too heavily tilted towards US after last year's big rally. It wasnt because I knew what Donald Trump was going to do.

 

[DevilPlate]

I also got blindsided, didnt figure this out until recently.

That post was in response to somebody asking me if it was a good idea to put new money in bonds vs stocks back in Nov/Dec. My own portfolio is rule based, I sold US equities in Dec because my portfolio had become too heavily tilted towards US after last year's big rally. It wasnt because I knew what Donald Trump was going to do.

You sounds like 1M65 Loo sia

My theory of what/why Trump changed is because he miraculously survived the gunshot.
Human can change dramatically after experiencing near death.

死而复生

 

[twosix]

house cleaning can end very soon if he chickens out, which i doubt so.. if not can be 4 or more years to go.... his ego too strong to accept defeat.

 

[d5dude]

You sounds like 1M65 Loo sia

Who is 1m65 Loo? Youtuber?

My theory of what/why Trump changed is because he miraculously survived the gunshot.
Human can change dramatically after experiencing near death.

死而复生

I dun think he has changed much... Trump is still the self-serving, money grubbing and pathological liar that he was 4 years ago. Only difference now is that he has stopped pandering to wall street.

 

[apple459721]

So many stocks very long wick candle at market close, purposely trigger stop loss?


Pep, qcom, txn, mchp, klac, nxpi

 

[aurvandil]

My guess is Trump is still sore about losing the 2020 election, he was "the stock market president" but that didnt help him win so he feels betrayed. His new obsession is reshoring, which makes more sense since his base tends to be the people who got hurt by globalisation and the hollowing out of American manufacturing.

If you look back at Trump 1.0, it was more or less the same thing.

In the first part, market went sideways.

Then he tore up NAFTA and then did his trade war with China. Market tanked about 20%.

He then signed the USMCA and did a China trade deal. Market recovered and was on the way up when covid hit.

So far nothing seems substantively different. Sure the rethoric is louder and the actions seems more extreme this time. The baseline script remains roughly the same. The uncharted teritory is what would have happened in Trump 1.0 if covid did not hit.

My hypothesis is that he feels he would have won a second term if covid did not happen. Instead of basking in the glory of his policy successes, covid came along and robbed him of a second term. He is therefore looking to implement his original plan, this time with no covid and lessons learnt from his first time in office.

 

[GolferZzAxis]

If you look back at Trump 1.0, it was more or less the same thing.

In the first part, market went sideways.

Then he tore up NAFTA and then did his trade war with China. Market tanked about 20%.

He then signed the USMCA and did a China trade deal. Market recovered and was on the way up when covid hit.

So far nothing seems substantively different. Sure the rethoric is louder and the actions seems more extreme this time. The baseline script remains roughly the same. The uncharted teritory is what would have happened in Trump 1.0 if covid did not hit.

My hypothesis is that he feels he would have won a second term if covid did not happen. Instead of basking in the glory of his policy successes, covid came along and robbed him of a second term. He is therefore looking to implement his original plan, this time with no covid and lessons learnt from his first time in office.

The big difference is back in Trump 1 he was still surrounded by sound Republicans who does not share his crazy world views.

In Trump 2, he is surrounded by MAGA bootlickers, billionaires like Elon Musk who wants to turn America into an oligarchy, and he is laying off literally half of the federal government workforce

 

[aurvandil]

The big difference is back in Trump 1 he was still surrounded by sound Republicans who does not share his crazy world views.

In Trump 2, he is surrounded by MAGA bootlickers, billionaires like Elon Musk who wants to turn America into an oligarchy, and he is laying off literally half of the federal government workforce

Sure. My main point is he is trying to implement his original plan which he was unable to do because of covid.

 

[RedsYWNA]

Sure. My main point is he is trying to implement his original plan which he was unable to do because of covid.

The main difference is really that inflation was low then, and Japan interest rates were dirt low as well. J Pow saved him then.

Now, he inherits a much more challenging economy, with the Fed having to decipher the signal from the noise before deciding whether to lower rates again.

 

[ctan84]

You sounds like 1M65 Loo sia

My theory of what/why Trump changed is because he miraculously survived the gunshot.
Human can change dramatically after experiencing near death.

死而复生

Changed? What aspect(s) of him changed? For the worst maybe?

 

[mooseolly]

This scaring is good, if not wrong previously is anticipate 2 rate cut in 2025 but seeing the fedwatch now could cut in June, July and Sep (3X).

 

[DevilPlate]

Sure. My main point is he is trying to implement his original plan which he was unable to do because of covid.

Whats his original plan?