USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[Jirachi]

History lesson

However this time is different lah

Video thumbnail almost gave me stage 4 cancer.

 

[aurvandil]

History lesson

However this time is different lah

If things are really so dire, we wouldn't be selling off like this.
It would be like what we saw during covid where market went limit down day after day.

So far the sell off has been orderly. No sign of a bottom yet.

 

[TerryPower]

So far the sell off has been orderly. No sign of a bottom yet.

will go down until when?

 

[aurvandil]

will go down until when?

Unless you are a fortune teller, there is no way to predict.
To put things in perspective, S&P is not even down 10% from ATH.
If it are really as bad as what so many kan cheong spider are saying, we would not be selling off at this lesisurely pace.

 

[DevilPlate]

If things are really so dire, we wouldn't be selling off like this.
It would be like what we saw during covid where market went limit down day after day.

So far the sell off has been orderly. No sign of a bottom yet.

U never watch the vid.

It took 1-2years and then Depression hits
Total took like 3-4years to find the bottom

However this time is different.
Worst case scenario may take like 5years to pan out.

Trade war leads into global recession.
Global central banks print Trillions and then V-shaped recovery
Then Hyperinflation hits and FFR rise >10%

whahahaha

 

[aurvandil]

U never watch the vid.

It took 1-2years and then Depression hits
Total took like 3-4years to find the bottom

However this time is different.
Worst case scenario may take like 5years to pan out.

Trade war leads into global recession.
Global central banks print Trillions and then V-shaped recovery
Then Hyperinflation hits and FFR rise >10%

whahahaha

Simi take 4 to 6 years to find bottom.

Back then to go from Europe to US need to take 4 to 6 days.
Need to get onboard Titanic at Southhampton to reach New York.

Last time FED run policy with no computer.
Got no trading apps to monitor prices ... need to read newspaper to see how market close.
If you want to see a chart, need ruler and graph paper.

 

[kickass22]

U never watch the vid.

It took 1-2years and then Depression hits
Total took like 3-4years to find the bottom

However this time is different.
Worst case scenario may take like 5years to pan out.

Trade war leads into global recession.
Global central banks print Trillions and then V-shaped recovery
Then Hyperinflation hits and FFR rise >10%

whahahaha

So what YOU are saying is that we are going into a depression era stock market huh?

 

[TerryPower]

Today pre-market drop again

 

[apple459721]

 

[DevilPlate]

So what YOU are saying is that we are going into a depression era stock market huh?

Simi take 4 to 6 years to find bottom.

Back then to go from Europe to US need to take 4 to 6 days.
Need to get onboard Titanic at Southhampton to reach New York.

Last time FED run policy with no computer.
Got no trading apps to monitor prices ... need to read newspaper to see how market close.
If you want to see a chart, need ruler and graph paper.

i already said this time is different.
Main difference this time is that any recession…..central banks will immediately print Zillions whahahaha

 

[aurvandil]

i already said this time is different.
Main difference this time is that any recession…..central banks will immediately print Zillions whahahaha

I am not talking about the outcome.

I am speaking about the speed with which market and the FED reacts.

Last time, there was no way the FED could have reacted with a coherent policy in a timely manner as there was no data to analyse and no way to figure out what is the right thing to do.

Similarly for the market, it now doesn't take years much less months to find a bottom. Going by the past 5 years, we get there in 1 to 2 weeks.

 

[DevilPlate]

I am not talking about the outcome.

I am speaking about the speed with which market and the FED reacts.

Last time, there was no way the FED could have reacted with a coherent policy in a timely manner as there was no data to analyse and no way to figure out what is the right things to do.

Similarly for the market, it now doesn't take years much less months to find a bottom. Going by the past 5 years, we get there in 1 to 2 weeks.

But then the current tariff war….everybody still duno whether Trump is calling a bluff anot?
So this thing can drag on?

Also the bigger problem is not the trade war but the refinancing of their debt and high 10y yield.
Many countries stop buying their bonds liao and mostly only buy their short term bonds?

I look at various reports and ALL saying their national debt cannot be reduced….They can only slow down the rate of increase nia whahaha. So will USD devalue sharply if their US Fed print and makan their own national debt?

 

[aurvandil]

But then the current tariff war….everybody still duno whether Trump is calling a bluff anot?
So this thing can drag on?

When it first came out that he was going to do this, the impact was quite big.
If you observe the recent moves, the impact is becoming smaller as this is a known thing he is going to do.

Give 1 to 2 weeks more, the worst will have been priced in and whatever pattern he want to chut will cease to have an impact. If he gets tired of playing with this and calls it off, market will rally.

The main thing market is trying to price right now is probablity it will really push US into recession.
Jury is still out on that one as it involves pricing in FED reaction function.

Going back to what I originally wrote, we wouldn't be selling off at this leisurely pace if things are really as bad as what some people are saying.

 

[stanlawj]

Best explanation!

The main thing market is trying to price right now is probability it will really push US into recession.
Jury is still out on that one as it involves pricing in FED reaction function.

Going back to what I originally wrote, we wouldn't be selling off at this leisurely pace if things are really as bad as what some people are saying.

 

[Jirachi]

No sign of a bottom yet.

Correct. There seemed to be no signs of exhaustion from the selling yet

 

[Jirachi]

will go down until when?

No one knows. There will be a mix of fundamental, technical and the current political developments all in the mix.

 

[Jirachi]

U never watch the vid.

It took 1-2years and then Depression hits
Total took like 3-4years to find the bottom

However this time is different.
Worst case scenario may take like 5years to pan out.

Trade war leads into global recession.
Global central banks print Trillions and then V-shaped recovery
Then Hyperinflation hits and FFR rise >10%

whahahaha

The current macro is not great, not terrible. The problem now is uncertainty mostly from Trump and his trade policies.

S&P 500 earnings are good for FY 2024 as well.

 

[Jirachi]

So what YOU are saying is that we are going into a depression era stock market huh?

Far from this

 

[Jirachi]

i already said this time is different.
Main difference this time is that any recession…..central banks will immediately print Zillions whahahaha

Any potential chance of a US recession this year is an artificially induced one from Trump's mouth

 

[Jirachi]

When it first came out that he was going to do this, the impact was quite big.
If you observe the recent moves, the impact is becoming smaller as this is a known thing he is going to do.

Give 1 to 2 weeks more, the worst will have been priced in and whatever pattern he want to chut will cease to have an impact. If he gets tired of playing with this and calls it off, market will rally.

The main thing market is trying to price right now is probablity it will really push US into recession.
Jury is still out on that one as it involves pricing in FED reaction function.

Going back to what I originally wrote, we wouldn't be selling off at this leisurely pace if things are really as bad as what some people are saying.

I put 2 or 3 scenarios into perspective.

1. Japanese Yen carry trade
2. Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022
3. Israel-Palestine conflict in 2023

4. Trump's trade policy