USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[yslvlys]

Doing some research on potential pharma companies to buy.
Just curious, People buy NVO for the Ozempic craze? Any risks of competition from other weight-loss drug?

Haha I think @limster expert in NVO.
For me my research is purely based on numbers, increasing sales and increasing positive cash flow from operations for past 3 years and 3 quarters, regardless of company and macro background

 

[limster]

Haha I think @limster expert in NVO.
For me my research is purely based on numbers, increasing sales and increasing positive cash flow from operations for past 3 years and 3 quarters, regardless of company and macro background

i don't consider myself a 'master' or 'expert', i just share the stocks i am actually buying. taking this opportunity to increase my NVO position. maybe sell some when it recovers to $80+ and then HODL to $100

 

[stanlawj]

Yay! Deflation in m/m CPI is coming. Chicken Genius:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

March FOMC is going to bring fireworks. Will FOMC members ignore their own data?
Seven days more to go and counting down!

 

[revhappy]

Yay! Deflation in m/m CPI is coming. Chicken Genius:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

March FOMC is going to bring fireworks. Will FOMC members ignore their own data?
Seven days more to go and counting down!

But US 10 year yield didn't fall. So markets expecting reinflation due to tariffs?

 

[adgjl321]

What's the easiest way to get exposure to Russia assuming the war etc will end and sanctions lifted?

 

[stanlawj]

But US 10 year yield didn't fall. So markets expecting reinflation due to tariffs?

Right now, market index drop is due to rotation out of the Mag7 into other sectors. There are many causes for the rotation. Some say it is tariffs, other say Deepseek/China ... it's just too many people crowding into the same boat with leverage for too long (this is already a 2-year plus bull market).

For the UST yields, it's mainly because supply of UST for each duration hasn't changed much from projected growth. i.e. fiscal spending cuts haven't taken much effect. DOGE cuts are still a drop in the bucket.
We'll need to see many Democrat activist judges impeached first. Then DOGE can do their work without being blocked by these judges. So maybe H2 2025, or early next year for any further drop in yields.

As for recession, it's dependent on Fed reaction function. If Fed wants to be political, they can continue to pretend inflation is still too high & avoid cutting FFR, and this will cause recession. Or the Fed can recognise that they have already tightened for too long, and need to cut 50bps in the coming March FOMC.

 

[elvintay07]

Yay! Deflation in m/m CPI is coming. Chicken Genius:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

March FOMC is going to bring fireworks. Will FOMC members ignore their own data?
Seven days more to go and counting down!

Last time Cathy woods say, ppl don’t believe. Where got deflation? Should be runaway inflation la

 

[DevilPlate]

Last time Cathy woods say, ppl don’t believe. Where got deflation? Should be runaway inflation la

U like to mention those cuisss Cathy and ML

 

[elvintay07]

U like to mention those cuisss Cathy and ML

ML is a legend in magic the gathering lei. In fact he more zai than Loo. But his cpf no $1m. Whatever he says no use. Elite say anything also correct.

 

[apple459721]

Market consolidating

maybe one final flush before relief rally

 

[DevilPlate]

Market consolidating

maybe one final flush before relief rally

Based on chart, it looks like transitioning into bear market?

Previously spy/qqq always bounced back up upon touching 200dma
now it seems 200dma is the resistance?

 

[limster]

bought more NVO @ 76.35. Plan to sell some at 80.00.
Sold some of my Vodafone to take advantage of telco rally. will rebuy if it drops.

 

[apple459721]

Based on chart, it looks like transitioning into bear market?

Previously spy/qqq always bounced back up upon touching 200dma
now it seems 200dma is the resistance?

i think will retest 5 aug 2024 low.

but need relief rally first

 

[elvintay07]

I hoot Costco as tribute to Charlie Munger. lol! Also added Walmart machiam value investing.

 

[ah_leetw]

i think will retest 5 aug 2024 low.

but need relief rally first

No need to relief..

Next wave of bullish market start already

 

[yslvlys]

I added more SHAK! Let's go! ~

 

[peachmouse]

S&P 500 went into correction territory.
- Interesting that this correction did not spread to other countries.
- Currently, P/E ratio of S&P is 26.4 (source). Not cheap

S&P 500 show declines with each new or unexpected new Trump tariffs.

This reminds me of the market in 2008, where market extended declines with each new negative surprises. The market starts to stablize and then bottom in early 2009, when there is no further negative surprises.

As such, I guess that US market may be in for bumpy ride in April too, when President Trump annuouce the details on reciprocal tariffs and the affected countries retailiate.

 

[revhappy]

S&P 500 went into correction territory.
- Interesting that this correction did not spread to other countries.
- Currently, P/E ratio of S&P is 26.4 (source). Not cheap

S&P 500 show declines with each new or unexpected new Trump tariffs.

This reminds me of the market in 2008, where market extended declines with each new negative surprises. The market starts to stablize and then bottom in early 2009, when there is no further negative surprises.

As such, I guess that US market may be in for bumpy ride in April too, when President Trump annuouce the details on reciprocal tariffs and the affected countries retailiate.

It just seems like part of a grand plan to bankrupt people who are currently rich, those who favoured the old administration and transfer their wealth to the people who favor the new administration.

They have 4 years to do that. So maybe they are going for maximum chaos early on to bring the markets down so they can load up on the cheap.

 

[mooseolly]

Trade war V1, Covid, rate hike+war, Trade war V2. Rich getting richer playing around with retail investors.

 

[limster]

Trade war V1, Covid, rate hike+war, Trade war V2. Rich getting richer playing around with below average retail investors.

Need to add in the words 'below average'.

Above average investors will not be selling undervalued stocks just because the price goes down, instead they will be buying more.

But if you are holding overvalued stocks and the price goes down, selling makes a lot of sense!