USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[revhappy]

Ouch....I thought this liberation thingy was expected so why still huge sell off??

I think markets were expecting it to be a bluff. Even now, the sell off is really mild and markets are still expecting a rollback. If there is no rollback, all hell breaks loose.

 

[revhappy]

Rotation continues... DXY just broke its support 103.2
Currency and bond market cannot be manipulated so easily. USD weakness is the first confirmation. implying either less demand for USD, or dovish Fed policy ahead. (Strongest currency: 1. Euro, 2. CHF, 3. JPY).
Next, UST 10yr yield drop also confirmed, from 4.2% to 4.05%.



Does this translate to less global growth and global economic depression?

USD is very interesting. Every crisis before, USD was the safe haven, but this time it is the source of the trouble. Maybe thats why Gold was going up like crazy. Damn, I missed this completely.

 

[revhappy]

Indian markets and rupee are hardly down today. In this kind of environment there are very few consumer oriented net importing countries and they will be the winners.

China should have pivoted towards consumerism long back, but then their political ideology doesnt allow it.

 

[revhappy]

 

[limster]

I wanted to get some practice with day trading. tonight might be a good night to practice!

 

[revhappy]

I wanted to get some practice with day trading. tonight might be a good night to practice!

Are you going to short?

 

[limster]

Are you going to short?

anything is possible. even accidentally pressing the wrong button in my excitement.

I've just bought some VWRD and VUSD today as well.

 

[revhappy]

VWRA is 3% below what it was 6 months ago and the world is in a much more worse place now than 6 months ago.

Infact ECB president said, this is worse than COVID, because atleast during COVID they could do money printer go brrr and bail out everyone. This time inflation is too high to even do that. Equity investors are seriously delusional. The index needs to be atleast 10% lower, maybe 20% lower to reflect what is to come over the next year or so.

 

[DevilPlate]

VWRA is 3% below what it was 6 months ago and the world is in a much more worse place now than 6 months ago.

Infact ECB president said, this is worse than COVID, because atleast during COVID they could do money printer go brrr and bail out everyone. This time inflation is too high to even do that. Equity investors are seriously delusional. The index needs to be atleast 10% lower, maybe 20% lower to reflect what is to come over the next year or so.

Stonks always go up!

 

[bo_tak_chek_bbfa]

very tempted to add to my position in iwda but I've reached my target this year already ... so holding out now for better prices to come along. will be focusing on my sg equities

 

[limster]

VWRA is 3% below what it was 6 months ago and the world is in a much more worse place now than 6 months ago.

Infact ECB president said, this is worse than COVID, because atleast during COVID they could do money printer go brrr and bail out everyone. This time inflation is too high to even do that. Equity investors are seriously delusional. The index needs to be atleast 10% lower, maybe 20% lower to reflect what is to come over the next year or so.

I was thinking whether everyone have to endure to the next US midterms for the US voter to send a message.
However, apart from congress, there seem to be plenty of other types of State level elections, so voters have many opportunities to send a message, and if there is a strong message sent, we will see policy U-turn soon.

Trump smart, announced the tariffs after the US house special election.

 

[d5dude]

Mai talk cock la. All these are published data lei. Cannot have that mentality like opposition.

You are the one talking cock here.

Educate yourself by reading this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/how-did-the-us-arrive-at-its-tariff-figures-.html

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative laid out its approach on its website, which appeared somewhat similar to what cyber sleuths had already figured out, barring a few differences.

“While individually computing the trade deficit effects of tens of thousands of tariff, regulatory, tax and other policies in each country is complex, if not impossible, their combined effects can be proxied by computing the tariff level consistent with driving bilateral trade deficits to zero. If trade deficits are persistent because of tariff and non-tariff policies and fundamentals, then the tariff rate consistent with offsetting these policies and fundamentals is reciprocal and fair,” the website reads.


In layman's terms this just means that the USTR made those tariffs numbers up, they looked at trade imbalance and determined that US should have zero trade deficit with every single country and any trade imbalance means that they are justified in putting on tariffs to balance trade.

 

[d5dude]

Nope.. Mr. Loo still holding alot of SP500. He didn't sell everything.
I'm not of those hong gan experts.




Pharmaceutical drug shortage coming soon to US.
Existing supply on the shelves will be all be quickly hoarded up.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asi...generic-medicine-donald-trump-tariffs-4878576

Pharmaceuticals are currently exempt, of course this is only temporary since the WH has stated that there will be separate tariffs for some of these products.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presiden...nt-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/

(b) The following goods as set forth in Annex II to this order, consistent with law, shall not be subject to the ad valorem rates of duty under this order: (iv) other products enumerated in Annex II to this order, including copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber articles, certain critical minerals, and energy and energy products;

 

[d5dude]

Rotation continues... DXY just broke its support 103.2
Currency and bond market cannot be manipulated so easily. USD weakness is the first confirmation. implying either less demand for USD, or dovish Fed policy ahead. (Strongest currency: 1. Euro, 2. CHF, 3. JPY).
Next, UST 10yr yield drop also confirmed, from 4.2% to 4.05%.



Does this translate to less global growth and global economic depression?

I dun think its just mag7, these tariffs will be a huge problem for many large US MNCs. Take Nike for example, they shifted production from China to other SE Asia countries to evade Chinese tariffs but there is nowhere to hide anymore.

There will certainly be less global growth if these tariffs stay, companies like Nike will have to shift production back to the US to avoid tariffs, this means higher prices for consumers and far lower margins.

 

[d5dude]

I was thinking whether everyone have to endure to the next US midterms for the US voter to send a message.
However, apart from congress, there seem to be plenty of other types of State level elections, so voters have many opportunities to send a message, and if there is a strong message sent, we will see policy U-turn soon.

Trump smart, announced the tariffs after the US house special election.

Yea I think this is what is why stocks arent much lower, most people think these tariffs will not be around for long (and they could be right).

 

[elvintay07]

You are the one talking cock here.

Educate yourself by reading this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/how-did-the-us-arrive-at-its-tariff-figures-.html

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative laid out its approach on its website, which appeared somewhat similar to what cyber sleuths had already figured out, barring a few differences.

“While individually computing the trade deficit effects of tens of thousands of tariff, regulatory, tax and other policies in each country is complex, if not impossible, their combined effects can be proxied by computing the tariff level consistent with driving bilateral trade deficits to zero. If trade deficits are persistent because of tariff and non-tariff policies and fundamentals, then the tariff rate consistent with offsetting these policies and fundamentals is reciprocal and fair,” the website reads.


In layman's terms this just means that the USTR made those tariffs numbers up, they looked at trade imbalance and determined that US should have zero trade deficit with every single country and any trade imbalance means that they are justified in putting on tariffs to balance trade.

That is life mah. Trump is damn powerful so the cock he talk is correct la. Me, small ant no matter how correct also wrong.

Singapore politics already taught us. No matter what cock cnbc write, trump is correct la. Just like Jack Ma can talk tiger and dragon about his ant financials how strong compared to ICBC, if Winnie the Pooh don’t agree, he also GG

 

[elvintay07]

I dun think its just mag7, these tariffs will be a huge problem for many large US MNCs. Take Nike for example, they shifted production from China to other SE Asia countries to evade Chinese tariffs but there is nowhere to hide anymore.

There will certainly be less global growth if these tariffs stay, companies like Nike will have to shift production back to the US to avoid tariffs, this means higher prices for consumers and far lower margins.

Nike I think close shop also no one miss them much. The charbo have moved to Lulu liao

 

[aurvandil]

He made those numbers up. Many of the countries on the table have nearly zero (or zero) tariffs on US goods, also Trump conflating VAT with tariffs is just stupid. VAT applies to all goods and services consumed within the country, even ones that are produced domestically, it cannot be considered a trade barrier.

Trump is a literal fool, he was only good for the stock market during his first term because that was all he cared about, but like I said some time ago this is no longer the case.

The 10% SG got slapped with is because of transhipping. The rationale is that a significant amont of goods are transhipped through Singapore by countries like China to evade tariffs. They are therefore slapping us with the friends and family rate of 10%. They will probably come round to us with a list of demands that plug what they feel are the loopholes that allow for tariff evasion. It is going to be a tough one whether we agree to this. If we do, it is going to blow a hole in a significant part of our economy.

A lot of people like to dismiss the Trump administration as buffons. When I see nuance like this, I tend to think that they have a really strong policy team that has been given blue sky.

 

[d5dude]

That is life mah. Trump is damn powerful so the cock he talk is correct la. Me, small ant no matter how correct also wrong.

Singapore politics already taught us. No matter what cock cnbc write, trump is correct la. Just like Jack Ma can talk tiger and dragon about his ant financials how strong compared to ICBC, if Winnie the Pooh don’t agree, he also GG

Riiiiight.... I guess you will agree with Trump even if he says the sun rises from the west.

 

[d5dude]

Nike I think close shop also no one miss them much. The charbo have moved to Lulu liao

Most of Lulu's products are also made in SE Asia.