USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

No need to second guess. Trump is a mad king. He anyhow throws the numbers as he likes.

He is not Mad nor dumb.
He simply massage the figure and quote high ceiling numbers first to kickstart the negotiation

 

[d5dude]

I mean US surplus with us lah whahaha

Which would be dumb since countries geo laundering for China should be running a large trade surplus with the US.

 

[twosix]

He is not Mad nor dumb.
He simply massage the figure and quote high ceiling numbers first to kickstart the negotiation

Good luck to your beliefs. Haha.

 

[aurvandil]

Which would be dumb since countries geo laundering for China should be running a large trade surplus with the US.

It goes both ways. Recently there were some companies which were caught transhipping sanctioned AI chips to China.

 

[d5dude]

He is not Mad nor dumb.
He simply massage the figure and quote high ceiling numbers first to kickstart the negotiation

He is looking to balance trade, not sure how anyone can negotiate out of a trade deficit.

US manufacturing simply isnt competitive, it makes no sense to manufacture stuff like shoes in the US, this goods trade imbalance will always exist unless US consumers stop buying stuff.

 

[DevilPlate]

Good luck to your beliefs. Haha.

His man Bessent already said that openly leh….
Not i say one

 

[d5dude]

It goes both ways. Recently there were some companies which were caught transhipping sanctioned AI chips to China.

That is Biden's domain. Trump doesnt give 2 hoots about that. All he has talked about is the trade deficit.

 

[DevilPlate]

He is looking to balance trade, not sure how anyone can negotiate out of a trade deficit.

US manufacturing simply isnt competitive, it makes no sense to manufacture stuff like shoes in the US, this goods trade imbalance will always exist unless US consumers stop buying stuff.

My own speculation is that Trump and his team main (real) reason is to lower down 10y yield….
Any cork will know all these silly tariffs don’t make sense whahahaha

Also revenue collected from tariffs is really peanuts to them…….(too insignificant to begin with)

 

[d5dude]

My own speculation is that Trump and his team main (real) reason is to lower down 10y yield….
Any cork will know all these silly tariffs don’t make sense whahahaha

Also revenue collected from tariffs is really peanuts to them…….(too insignificant to begin with)

Yea Bessent has talked about the 10 yr several times.

These tariff rates are actually astronomical and they will have an impact on the federal budget. Effective tariff rate is over 20% right now, the US imports ~4T worth of goods so 20% of that is 800b (assuming consumption doesnt collapse due to higher prices). They'd cut the fiscal deficit by about half even without any spending cut.

 

[sky1978]

I mean US surplus with us lah whahaha

It is a surplus because Singapore buy and/or books through a lot of machinery, oil and aircraft from the US.
https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/imports/united-states

 

[DevilPlate]

Yea Bessent has talked about the 10 yr several times.

These tariff rates are actually astronomical and they will have an impact on the federal budget. Effective tariff rate is over 20% right now, the US imports ~4T worth of goods so 20% of that is 800b (assuming consumption doesnt collapse due to higher prices). They'd cut the fiscal deficit by about half even without any spending cut.

Yeah this report say 660B if his new tariff regime is fully implemented.
https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/trum...n-fears-revenue-customs-estimate-19583463.htm

 

[yslvlys]

Yea Bessent has talked about the 10 yr several times.

These tariff rates are actually astronomical and they will have an impact on the federal budget. Effective tariff rate is over 20% right now, the US imports ~4T worth of goods so 20% of that is 800b (assuming consumption doesnt collapse due to higher prices). They'd cut the fiscal deficit by about half even without any spending cut.

So he might actually be the smartest. Consumption collapse may be lagging for 1-2 years before actually happening. After 1-2 years, if he stops the tariff, fiscal deficit may already really be eliminated. And once he stops the tariff, stocks may soar. Fed may cut rates so economy may still grow or at least not go into recession.

 

[yslvlys]

I suspect today I may buy a lot of counters even if I put in lower than market bid prices

 

[elvintay07]

Of course LPPL, but it doesnt mean that it is justified or reasonable. Reciprocal isnt reciprocal when the other party has little/no tariff on the US but gets hit by tariffs anyway, this is war.

But this isnt all that surprising, Trump has been demolishing US institutions and diminishing US soft power with lawless acts from day 1, this is just another day for him.

Say US compute wrongly also no use. Singapore DPM Gan said SG not taking counter measures. lol! Expected one la. 90% of the countries kana won’t dare to make noise also.

 

[hwarzoner]

will get cheaper?

 

[stanlawj]

But silver also crash
Only Gold hold up

I took a big loss on my silver miner SVM. Loss more than half my profit this year. I decided to cut it and only buy back next time when silver price technical chart improve. Complete breakdown in price.

It seems that the market makers are too powerful in the silver market. If gold goes down, silver goes down 5X harder AT THE SAME TIME, no time lag at all. Silver miners will go down 10X harder but with a time lag, from my experience, so it is better to leave the poker table with something in hand rather than nothing.

 

[DevilPlate]

I took a big loss on my silver miner SVM. Loss more than half my profit this year. I decided to cut it and only buy back next time when silver price technical chart improve. Complete breakdown in price.

It seems that the market makers are too powerful in the silver market. If gold goes down, silver goes down 5X harder AT THE SAME TIME, no time lag at all. Silver miners will go down 10X harder but with a time lag, from my experience, so it is better to leave the poker table with something in hand rather than nothing.

I only buy some paper silver last time whenever it drop to around $20-22 and then sold when it go to around $29-30

Alot of funny narratives about silver going parabolic to $50-100 etc but never happen for the past 10-20years

 

[888888888888]

He is not Mad nor dumb.
He simply massage the figure and quote high ceiling numbers first to kickstart the negotiation

Agreed. As Scott bessent did say is the highest and for countries to take steps to bring it down.

 

[SpeedingBullet]

10YT alrdy sub-4%.

Bessent smiling ear to ear.

 

[stanlawj]

I only buy some paper silver last time whenever it drop to around $20-22 and then sold when it go to around $29-30

Alot of funny narratives about silver going parabolic to $50-100 etc but never happen for the past 10-20years

US dollar falling hard as predicted but I just don't understand how the silver market makers are able to control the price all the way down. That's why I'm out. Gold-to-silver ratio now 96 and still going higher. BTC is more transparent.