USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

No la. My target is at least $200m before I die lei. I need to be like Peter Lynch. Peter Lim also can

Interesting and creative narrative and editing.
Is it done by you and yr bear gang?

 

[stanlawj]

Trump will have to flip. His voters will ensure it.

I enthusiastically supported Trump's victory in the November election.
I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs that would encourage the production of strategic industries to return to the Americas.
I.e., what we got in the first Administration.
I did not vote for a neutron bomb to wipe out supply chains and small businesses 100 days in.

 

[stanlawj]

USD crashing this morning against SGD, breaking 1.31 decisively.
Now 1.307.

 

[peachmouse]

USD crashing this morning against SGD, breaking 1.31 decisively.
Now 1.307.

Heng that I converted my USD cash in IBKR to SGD two weeks ago. For my US and HK stocks, I will have to take the exchange rate loss.

Those who follow Mr Loo (1M65) to buy TLT need to consider exchange rate risk. (I do not own any TLT.)

 

[stanlawj]

Heng that I converted my USD cash in IBKR to SGD two weeks ago. For my US and HK stocks, I will have to take the exchange rate loss.

Those who follow Mr Loo (1M65) to buy TLT need to consider exchange rate risk. (I do not own any TLT.)

I'm about 50% USD, 40% JPY, 10% SGD.
Regret not switching more out of USD... was too unsure about what was going to happen this week.

Strongest currency this morning:
1. GBP, EUR, CHF (about the same)
4. JPY
5. SGD

 

[DevilPlate]

I'm about 50% USD, 40% JPY, 10% SGD.
Regret not switching more out of USD... was too unsure about what was going to happen this week.

Strongest currency this morning:
1. GBP, EUR, CHF (about the same)
4. JPY
5. SGD

I tot u mostly on YEN?

i already feeling the pinch holding around 10% of my cash in USD

 

[stanlawj]

I tot u mostly on YEN?

i already feeling the pinch holding around 10% of my cash in USD

Nope if you checked my last post about it, I officially switched all back to USD.

Then the next day, I looked at the USDJPY and it still kept going down even though the UST yield is down, which is unheard of... so I decided to just change some back to JPY. Because at this point, I have no idea what is going on. Uncharted regime change. The usual correlations are broken.

IMO, I'm still holding too much USD and it's wiping out some significant profits from my previous trades.

 

[DevilPlate]

Nope if you checked my last post about it, I officially switched all back to USD.

Then the next day, I looked at the USDJPY and it still kept going down even though the UST yield is down, which is unheard of... so I decided to just change some back to JPY. Because at this point, I have no idea what is going on. Uncharted regime change. The usual correlations are broken.

IMO, I'm still holding too much USD and it's wiping out some significant profits from my previous trades.

Ya uncharted waters.
i sold all my IDTL liao since it lost its hedge feature/value……convert some into IB01 instead and still thinking where to park my USD or simply change back to SGD first (no IBKR acct)

 

[stanlawj]

We all need a new chart: SP500 priced in gold. It's down 30% since the peak in mid-Jan 2025.
During the 1971 Nixon shock till 1980, the SP500 drop by up to 90% vs gold.

 

[stanlawj]

Mainstream news are lying again. They report: USD dollar down because Trump wants to fire Powell. That was old news reported way before LAST WEEK, then Bessent told Trump he shouldn't do it, and US dollar held steady! That's why I still kept my USD cash pile!

Truth: US dollar is down this morning because China threatens reciprocal measures against any other country that dares to make a deal with US to isolate China. Hence US dollar down because market interprets this is as US going to LOSE because no country will make any deal on US terms!

 

[DevilPlate]

This old guy say buy the dip for long term US Tbond…..

”Don’t worry 28+years later you will get back your principle plus all the interest collected over the years”

 

[apple459721]

 

[d5dude]

Mainstream news are lying again. They report: USD dollar down because Trump wants to fire Powell. That was old news reported way before LAST WEEK, then Bessent told Trump he shouldn't do it, and US dollar held steady! That's why I still kept my USD cash pile!

Truth: US dollar is down this morning because China threatens reciprocal measures against any other country that dares to make a deal with US to isolate China. Hence US dollar down because market interprets this is as US going to LOSE because no country will make any deal on US terms!

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/18/trump-will-study-whether-to-fire-fed-chair-powell-adviser-says.html

This the latest version from Trump's circus, your Bessent news is old news already.

 

[DevilPlate]

It has gone to a stage of no return liao

Ikan bilis jin cham.....forced to choose sides. Kiap in between

 

[sky1978]

Mainstream news are lying again. They report: USD dollar down because Trump wants to fire Powell. That was old news reported way before LAST WEEK, then Bessent told Trump he shouldn't do it, and US dollar held steady! That's why I still kept my USD cash pile!

Truth: US dollar is down this morning because China threatens reciprocal measures against any other country that dares to make a deal with US to isolate China. Hence US dollar down because market interprets this is as US going to LOSE because no country will make any deal on US terms!

He is waiting for the Supreme Court's endorsement of his decision to fire board members of two other independent agencies. If that route is successful, it will pave the way for him to apply it to the Fed's Chair if he wants to.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/can-...eme-court-could-make-it-easier-133026526.html

 

[stanlawj]

Nowhere is Federal Reserve mentioned in those emergency petitions. Those two independent agency heads are trying to stay in power by comparing themselves with the Federal Reserve. Those agency heads are blocking reforms.

He is waiting for the Supreme Court's endorsement of his decision to fire board members of two other independent agencies. If that route is successful, it will pave the way for him to apply it to the Fed's Chair if he wants to.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/can-...eme-court-could-make-it-easier-133026526.html

 

[stanlawj]

UST 10-yr yields hardly changed. No crisis so far.
Only Chinese citizens piling into physical gold.

META breaks new lows, which is understandable since they lost their Chinese advertisers (no more made-in-China goods to advertise).
Looking for stocks that are bucking the trend? BTC, MSTR, MDWD.

Or just stay in cash like me and watch most of the market slowly burn down from a distance.

"The stock market and the economy will not survive both tariffs and a hawkish Fed. It is that simple. One or both things must change."

 

[DevilPlate]

UST 10-yr yields hardly changed. No crisis so far.
Only Chinese citizens piling into physical gold.

I guess it would be a sudden move like a failed 10y auction, Trump sack Powell, downgrade by Moody etc as a trigger

 

[sky1978]

Nowhere is Federal Reserve mentioned in those emergency petitions. Those two independent agency heads are trying to stay in power by comparing themselves with the Federal Reserve. Those agency heads are blocking reforms.

It is all about setting legal precedents. What the article is trying to say is that those two independent agencies are conceptually similar to the Fed. After the Supreme Court ruled in his favour, it will cement his power to deal with other independent agencies, which will also include the Fed.

 

[DevilPlate]

UST 10-yr yields hardly changed. No crisis so far.
Only Chinese citizens piling into physical gold.

META breaks new lows, which is understandable since they lost their Chinese advertisers (no more made-in-China goods to advertise).
Looking for stocks that are bucking the trend? BTC, MSTR, MDWD.

Or just stay in cash like me and watch most of the market slowly burn down from a distance.

"The stock market and the economy will not survive both tariffs and a hawkish Fed. It is that simple. One or both things must change."

Gold damn crazy…..so many recent days of 3%+ move (bad sign for stock market?)

BTC surprisingly decoupled from QQQ