Few factors I still worry... (and why I just cancelled my non-excuted trades by 11PM)
Alphabet Earnings
I just got a feeling it may 'not' be so good. Again, this is just my opinion and don't let my post affect your decision. I shared earlier in this thread (a long WOTs) that you should consider before investing in Google.
Anyway, there's one more huge highlight that investors always look for... Their capex.
Their Q3 2024 revenue was great, but capex was the huge red flag and that sparked the mass tech stock selloff, if you all remember. It was the same time when Biden wants to crack down on AI chips then a lot of stocks tanked.
Q4 2024 revenue was good but their cloud revenue not so good. They're struggling liao.
Q1 2025 revenue will definitely be 'okay' but not stellar as before... However, I got one huge concern.
If you realize, they keep putting "AI Overviews" on the search results. They started this since Q3 2024, but it was only Q1 2025 they rolled out even further for all topics, keyword searches, .etc. I remember a statistic showed 40% as compared to 10-20% back in Q4 2024.
The problem is this AI Overviews uses a lot of processing power. Not many people are aware of this. AI answers use 10x more power than a regular Google Search (source:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-do-googles-ai-answers-cost-the-environment/).
And let's not forget they were struggling against ChatGPT and the others in the AI chatbot market... They had been giving out Gemini free trials, and whatnot. People also use the free Gemini. However, they have no idea how to monetise on these AI platforms yet other than the paid subscription. AI overviews also gives direct answer, then why would people still want to click on ads (non-product search).
So I got this feeling their capex will still be high, and this time round their operating expense may be high too. That is why if you remember Google and Microsoft are considering investing in nuclear power, just to reduce this operating cost.
Don't forget all their lawsuits too..
Again, this is just my speculation... Maybe they already have ways to manage them.
The concern here is... if it fails to appease investors, you will definitely see a huge selloff in tech stocks again (exactly like past 2 earning quarters)...
Then...
Consumer Sentiment data tomorrow
High chances it will be awful and jialat as before. Whether you see on social media, Fed biege book, and whatever... consumers are reporting high food prices, high inflation, and they're saving up. Somemore the data is for April... the time when Liberation Day kicked in, and retailers were increasing prices.
I believe many investors know about this, so we
may see some selloff before market closes.
Again, I may be wrong ah, so take it with a pinch of salt... Because if the 2 points above suddenly show up the opposite (good consumer sentiment, and Alphabet investors happy) then knn, tech stocks will boom until you can go teh neh neh at siamdu this weekend liao.
