IIRC, you threw one a table, showing that the surrender value of whole life has surrender value 107424, compared to the extra 16k paid. My table was created in response to show that you failed to factor in the time value of money. By talking about surrender, arent you the one starting the talk on money making purpose of whole life?
I mentioned in that post. The purpose is only to prove that WL is not exactly useless as compare to term plan. I also mentioned many times, it does not means that WL plan is superior or better. If your purpose is to prove that BTIR is a better strategy, then its a different topic.
An average Singapore female that has survived to age 70, has 12.6% chance of dying by age 75. This average is the aggregate of smoker and non-smoker, healthy and non-healthy female. So given the rigor that insurance has in underwriting, the chance of dying between 70 and 75 is actually less than 12.6%.
Did I say that the person passed on? I put in a case if the insured survived, not die.
If the female continues to survive, the investment portion can continue to compound, at a rate faster than whole life, percentage and absolute wise. There is a good chance of the compounding overtaking the total death benefit by the time of death.
Like you mentioned, IF the investment compound at a rate faster than WL. Can you guaranteed the investment will grow at 8%? I did not ignore the last column, that's why I mentioned the investment has to do better than 7% in-order to be higher than the WL coverage.
Do also remember to factor in time value of money and liquidity in your comparison. Investments are relatively liquid and can be easily converted to cash to cover expense. Whole life is only paid at death, and in the meantime, if the insured is short on cash, they have to borrow, and for some, they are looking at 24% interest.
WL do not only pays on death, but on TPD and CI as well. Talking about liquidity, again, this is not the purpose of having insurance. If you keep using insurance for money making purpose, of course its useless. Once again, if you want to highlight, I'm the one to use the cash value of a WL plan as comparison, I only do it to show that the product is not totally useless.
BTIR strategy, is a method, that of course, make WL is useless. I have nothing against that idea, except the crucial point of after the term coverage, and if the insured investment failed, then there's no turning back. Can you guaranteed your investment performance of 8% pa as you claim?
Yes the surrender value is not guaranteed. My statement is referring to the 200k coverage.To start with, insurance investment return of 5.25% is not fixed either. Insurer themselves also invest partly in equity, and hence there are variability to their return. I also believe the surrender benefit at age 70, 107,424 is a projected return, and not guaranteed return...
I'm not sure why are you stating this. To prove that achieving 5-8% is not impossible? can you invest in greek gov? anyway, I did not say it's impossible to make such returns, I'm stating the fact that investment can fail or perform not up to expectation, that could result in your 5-6% investment returns projection, or lower, and as such, the insured will not be in as favorable position.Just a few months ago, Olam guaranteed annual return of 8%, for debt of 5 years. Greek government guaranteed annual return of 10%, for investment of 10 years. So yes, returns of such scale exist, and of course, you have to factor in loss from default.
My table is created on the basis of long term return, not annual fixed return. My table, neither does the insurer guarantees the return next year will be 5.25/6/8%. Law of law numbers will guarantee that if you invest long enough, your investment will earn at the rate close to market.
If thats the case, why there are people went bankrupt, commit suicide, or resulted in other situation, that is not painted as you wish? Insurer guaranteed the payout of the sum assured. Once again, look at the purpose of insurance. If your statement is so true, and you are confident in it, why not you personally guaranteed an annual return of 5% or (just 4%) over certain number of years, say, 15-25 yrs, I will pump my money in, the difference of 6% pa, is your management fee.
I believe you will be able to have quite a number of forumers coming to you, so you would not need to afraid of the bulk.
I have already answered that I did not ignore that columns, and also, if you are confident about those numbers, the option to prove it is as above. This will be great for many who do not dare to take risk, since to you, its no risk.You seems to have ignored the last column of my table in your argument, which compounds at 8%. It will show that even at the age of 70, the investment portion is more than death benefit. Hence, the BTIR investor will have both the amount, and liquidity; truly superior to whole life insurance.
Is 8% reasonable? S&P 500 has a total return of 10% annually for the past 25 years. This 10%, has included losses from default. Apparently, these defaults are not enough to kill S&P 500, due to the magic of portfolio. Yes, the investment will be rather heavy on equity. Does the person need the liquidity from age 30 to age 70 in the first place when it is not offered by whole life?
Yes, funds from insurer are useless. Thats why, I'm totally against ILP. Protection insurance is about coverage, not the cash value, so the performance of those par fund is not the main consideration in the product.The expense ratio for traditional ETF is 0.3%, far from unit trust or life insurer participating fund, which is looking at more than 1%, probably 2-3%.
Self insured in the future, not within the 30-70s.Why did you bring self-insured into the picture? for age 30 to 70, both plans offer the same protection quantum, using insurer.
Yes, uncertainty is part of life, and so perhaps, we should be riding part of the uncertainty, expecting some fluctuation. It is too costly to insure everything to have a constant life. We have law of large number to provide certainty into long term.
Lastly, I hope no hard feelings. I respect people with their own ways to manage funds. If you are confident about the performance of your investment, and sure that you will be better off using BTIR, goes with it. At the same time, I hope you can also respect those who can't invest. That's why I talk about purpose. Can BTIR benefit people who do not dare to invest? not to say, blindly invest in ETF, STI, S&Ps etc. I know many risk adverse investor, felt that, such tools are almost risk-free, but emotionally, many can't take such risk. Should I advise/support/force my clients to goes into BTIR even if they are 0 risk takers?
I'm not actually challenging you, to guaranteed 4-5% pa returns. I'm trying to say, its easy for investor to claim that >5% returns are easy, as other investment tools can easily earn more than 10%, and low risk also can have 5%. (First State dividend fund, pays 4% dividend annually) But if the funds is not yours, would you say the same thing? if you are confident, you dare to invest for others? many would not, as deep inside, you know there is a chance of losing as well.
Thanks for the investment knowledge though. I really din know greek gov bond can pays 10%, but again, erm, current situation, really hard to say.

