Milo's TA discussion and sharing thread

[Hoo8899]

CM Pac is good... I used to have it and sold near 90c.
It's basically china's ERP system lol

But not sure how much impact will high speed rails have on it's mid to long future

Still owing it, there was a recent news that the CEO seems aiming for HK IPO. The best part I like about it is because of the support from the majority shareholder. High speed rails won't have much impact in my opinion, peoples (especially family) still prefer to drive rather to take public transport for convenience sake.

 

[SpeedingBullet]

Still owing it, there was a recent news that the CEO seems aiming for HK IPO. The best part I like about it is because of the support from the majority shareholder. High speed rails won't have much impact in my opinion, peoples (especially family) still prefer to drive rather to take public transport for convenience sake.

What about the support from the majority shareholder?

Well, with 6-hr jams around, I think they'd rather take the train but then again, their train infrastructure not there yet.

 

[Hoo8899]

What about the support from the majority shareholder?

Well, with 6-hr jams around, I think they'd rather take the train but then again, their train infrastructure not there yet.

The major shareholder is the state government, that's more than enough to say. It holds so much of the convertible bonds with a super low interest, it has the options to convert to shares at 84c but it prefers to leave it as bond. Being a toll roads operators, I think one of the greatest risk is political, the government can extend or reduce the operating tenors, but if CM Pac is somehow related to the government, I think it stands to earn some exemption. And the parent does holding some fractions of toll roads, if the parent choose to sell a good asset, CM Pac should probably has the first refusal right.

Aside from this, 5 years ago how many peoples expect that COE will reach 100k? But yet peoples still buying cars. Not to predict the impact of the high speed train, but the present 6-hr jams around is good for toll road operators.

 

[Hoo8899]

Anyone can share TA for Vard? A dollar possible?

 

[wahkao3]

If that's the case then you can only find small-mid cap companies.

both small and big cap all got good ones.

Big caps aren't even in your "moderate" range. Debt is relative, it can be good it can be bad.

Debt can be good or bad. For me, I treat them as bad. Investing in a business is risky enough, i dont want to invest in a leveraged business. If I want to invest in leveraged investment, I can simply do it on my end using CFD leverage at my option.

Even if that reduces my returns, so be it. I am a risk adverse person, I am ok to trade off reduced return with reduced risk.

The good finance investment banker way to think about good or bad debt is to compare the cost of debt to return on asset. Or to be really more specific, WACC VS return on asset

eg. WACC is 5%, return on asset is 3%. => Bad debt



For me, I have these 2 items on my check list too:
- Low debt
- High return on asset comfortably above their WACC



WACC is not really easy to calculate

 

[wahkao3]

for the pic, do we add in the amortisation or subtract it when doing NTA valuations?

when valuating NTA, take NAV-intangibles
NAV-intangibles = NTA

I believe the numbers here are in RMB. Remember to convert to SGD

 

[endlssorrow]

thinking now how does ocbc TA looks like?

can TA singtel?

 

[SpeedingBullet]

both small and big cap all got good ones.



Debt can be good or bad. For me, I treat them as bad. Investing in a business is risky enough, i dont want to invest in a leveraged business. If I want to invest in leveraged investment, I can simply do it on my end using CFD leverage at my option.

Even if that reduces my returns, so be it. I am a risk adverse person, I am ok to trade off reduced return with reduced risk.

The good finance investment banker way to think about good or bad debt is to compare the cost of debt to return on asset. Or to be really more specific, WACC VS return on asset

eg. WACC is 5%, return on asset is 3%. => Bad debt



For me, I have these 2 items on my check list too:
- Low debt
- High return on asset comfortably above their WACC



WACC is not really easy to calculate

Really? Can gimme some examples of big caps that have low to no debt?

I highly doubt IBker will even bother about WACC. Only sell-side analysts will touch that.

Use Bloomberg terminal lor, one push of a button and u have your WACC, XIRR, DDM, etc.

 

[wahkao3]

Anyone can share TA for Vard? A dollar possible?

TA looks good.


But FA say dont buy Vard because of high debt.
and also Valuations are not attractive

If you like ships/marine, you can go for Jaya or Yangzhijiang. These have better FA

 

[SpeedingBullet]

when valuating NTA, take NAV-intangibles
NAV-intangibles = NTA

I believe the numbers here are in RMB. Remember to convert to SGD

I'm asking about amortisation...

 

[wahkao3]

Really? Can gimme some examples of big caps that have low to no debt?

There you go

I highly doubt IBker will even bother about WACC. Only sell-side analysts will touch that.

Oh really they dont care? when doing DCF intrinsic valuation DCF, they need the WACC to discount future earnings to the firm.
They need WACC.

Unless they are using relative valuations then no need. But relative valuations can only use when the market has statistically large number of comparable.

Use Bloomberg terminal lor, one push of a button and u have your WACC, XIRR, DDM, etc.

i ish only retail investor no money to afford elite bloomberg. My company ish engineering company never buy bloomberg terminal.

I only have cheapoberg.

 

[wahkao3]

I'm asking about amortisation...

eh why u ask amortisation? need to bother with amortisation meh? I never bother with it leh

 

[Milo-Dino]

If that's the case then you can only find small-mid cap companies. Big caps aren't even in your "moderate" range. Debt is relative, it can be good it can be bad.

thanks!


for the pic, do we add in the amortisation or subtract it when doing NTA valuations?

you should look at carrying amount la...

that's the amount net of amortisation... (ie what value is left)

 

[SpeedingBullet]

There you go

Oh really they dont care? when doing DCF intrinsic valuation DCF, they need the WACC to discount future earnings to the firm.
They need WACC.

Unless they are using relative valuations then no need. But relative valuations can only use when the market has statistically large number of comparable.



i ish only retail investor no money to afford elite bloomberg. My company ish engineering company never buy bloomberg terminal.

I only have cheapoberg.

U sure? DairyFarm & GoldenAgri has no/low debt? For DFG, even their net debt is 1bn+.

They're heavier in statistical data than in valuations to sniff out inefficiencies. DCF anyone with a computer can do, how would it give them the unfair advantage?

I'm also a retail investor. Go to the library and use Bloomberg la. So easy and convenient.

eh why u ask amortisation? need to bother with amortisation meh? I never bother with it leh

just a random acctg qn.

you should look at carrying amount la...

that's the amount net of amortisation... (ie what value is left)

icic, thanks!

 

[SpeedingBullet]

sry for polluting ur thread with FA arguments lololol

 

[lamaray]

thinking now how does ocbc TA looks like?

can TA singtel?

Eh don't know if my comments might still be helpful since I am one day late..

Using trendline and support lines..

OCBC Support at 9.75, yesterday closed on 9.75 as well. Currently still in downtrend.
Might be hard for traders to find a bottom, so better to try when downtrend is reversed.

Singtel currently sitting on a uptrend trendline, with 3.55 as support. If it doesn't hold, might seek 3.44 very soon.

Apologies in advance if only Milo is allowed to give TA readings haha

 

[lamaray]

anyone been looking at capitaland?

Descending triangle looking like a break down chart, if it breaks below 2.93, but if it were to go above 3.01, it would be a change of downward trend which has been disturbing this stock since early 2013..

whats everyone's views on it? or stay clear of property totally?

 

[wahkao3]

U sure? DairyFarm & GoldenAgri has no/low debt? For DFG, even their net debt is 1bn+.

They're heavier in statistical data than in valuations to sniff out inefficiencies. DCF anyone with a computer can do, how would it give them the unfair advantage?

I'm also a retail investor. Go to the library and use Bloomberg la. So easy and convenient.


just a random acctg qn.

icic, thanks!

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistencies. I go home liao see see see look look at those companies u mention.

I tried to use public library bloomberg before. Aways got some chao camper there. Max usage 1 hr. And cannot extract data to excel sheet to do proper analysis. Also i doubt bloomberg data updates faster than Shareinvestor. U help me check how fast they update data ok?

 

[Sinkie]

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistencies. I go home liao see see see look look at those companies u mention.

I tried to use public library bloomberg before. Aways got some chao camper there. Max usage 1 hr. And cannot extract data to excel sheet to do proper analysis. Also i doubt bloomberg data updates faster than Shareinvestor. U help me check how fast they update data ok?

Bloomberg or Reuters data slower than shareinvestor? U sure?

 

[SpeedingBullet]

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistencies. I go home liao see see see look look at those companies u mention.

I tried to use public library bloomberg before. Aways got some chao camper there. Max usage 1 hr. And cannot extract data to excel sheet to do proper analysis. Also i doubt bloomberg data updates faster than Shareinvestor. U help me check how fast they update data ok?

Yeah that's why I said earlier, it's not easy to find companies with low debt and yet with big cap. I mean there might be some, but they're very rare. Markets are not THAT inefficient lol.

The bugis one? hahaha sorry im one of the chao campers .

I take pics lor, my entire camera roll full of pics. No choice. Manual key. If want to extract, go to schools to extract lor, usually I go to some university's library, then email myself the data. Got ways one la

Har? Bloomberg slower than shareinvestor? 2k/mth this kinda sh1t speeds? Cannot be lah bro.