I think you need to understand the difference between compulsory acquisition and delisting. Both have different criterias and its easy to mix up unless you really read and understand what the difference requirements are. But because 90% is in both, a lot of people confused one for the other, which is not the case.
1) Delisting. This is (should be) easy to understand. If less than 10% of CMA shares is in public hand ie. >90% in CL hand, CL can delist CMA. This is the ultimate aim of CL and is also the condition for the offer to proceed.
2) Compulsory Acquisition. This will only take place if CL receives >90% of the shares they
do not already own.
In the case of CMA, its possible for CL to receive less than 90% of the remaining shares but still be able to proceed with delisting because less than 10% will be in public float. How?
Ready for some numbers crunching?
Total CMA Shares = 3,897,695,302 [A]
90% level for delisting = 3,507,925,772
What CL had before launch of offer = 2,544,020,000 (65.3%)
What CL need to delist CMA = 963,905,772 (24.7%) [C] [Note: This can be from open market acquisitions and shares tendered to offeror by shareholders by accepting the offer]
Remaining Shares not owned by CL = 1,353,675,302 (34.7%) [D]
90% level required for compulsory acquisition = 1,218,307,772 (31.3%) [90% of D]
% CL need to proceed with delisting = 71.2% [C/D x 100%]
So as you can see, all CL need is 963,905,772 shares (which is 71.2% of the remaining shares they do no own) to proceed with the delisting.
So if you do not accept the offer, CL may not be able to acquire your shares compulsorily, and you may end up remaining a minority shareholder in an unlisted company.
So what to do? I would usually pay close attention to the acceptance level that CL has managed to acquire. If it hits >90% before the close of offer, then game over, just tender your shares.
If CL manage to hit >90% or close to 90%, its possible that it may extend the deadline to allow those who were sitting on the fence to tender their shares.
Let's wait and see how things develop. I heartened that the acquisition from open market seems to have slowed. And as at 08 May 2014, the total shares owned by concerted parties of CL is 2,743,258,708 (70.4%).
It would be interesting once they start reporting those who choose to accept their offer of $2.2025 and tender their shares. 2 weeks to go, lets cross our fingers.
Hopefully this will clear up most confusion; or it may serve to confuse you further
Read slowly and try to follow the logic and the numbers and hopefully it will make sense.