Just made a simple table showing the stats for the past 10 years. average for 4th position should be 70 points. Currently Southampton are 10 games in with 22 points. So 28 games more to go to get 48 points. Looking at their fixtures:
Leicester (H)
Villa (A)
Man City (H)
Arsenal (A)
Man Utd (H)
Burnley (A)
Everton (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (H)
Man Utd (A)
Newcastle (A)
Swansea (H)
QPR (A)
West Ham (H)
Liverpool (H)
West Brom (A)
Crystal palace (H)
Chelsea (A)
Burnley (H)
Everton (A)
Hull (H)
Stoke (A)
Tottenham (H)
Sunderland (A)
Leicester (A)
Villa (H)
City (A)
28 games - 48 points. They need about say 13 wins, 9 draws, 6 losses? I wouldn't say that would be too difficult. However they have 6 very big matches from 31 Nov to 31 Jan. This could be the point in which their form starts to deteriorate and their season turns for the worse.
For us, 28 games - 56 points.
Thats of course assuming that the average for the past 10 years would be anywhere near this season's top 4 points. Seems like the gap is starting to widen between the top teams and bottom teams.