this is my non-sensical approach -
you need to interprete news from oil production countries; demand and supply of oil.
you need to look at the chart and find what triggered the high and low price of oil for the past months.
you need to make your own judgement - will opec cut down production; will there be a demand; cut down no demand, cut down high demand, no cut no demand, no cut high demand, war, political uncertainty, if everybody go nuclear; if solar energy become dirt cheap .
how low do you think they can go, if US$14, what are the reasons they want to get that low.
if they cut in this present market condition, how high you expect oil to go - US$40, you need to know your reasons.
you need to map out your chart, have faith in your interpretation and bet on your expectation.
open an account with $XXX, hit the button, and let the market play out and pray that there is no margin call.
btw I'm off oil now, too many uncertainty. countries cut rate but to find their currencies go up than down; jie jie wayang too much, the pig and the gang in play. boj also play by the pig, hence careful. before you think the market is regulated think ten times.
look at the tennis player faces they look so serious on the courts but they are laughing all the way to the bank - win or lose. football, stocks, forex, oil - all are corrupted. if you are on the side of the syndicate you win.
Then there is a fringe group say oil is abiotic. Basically, can milk mother earth like a cow for crude.
Some smart alec was saying oil price had peaked... get out. I was holding steadfast to Peak Oil and saw my profit vaporized.
