0.85 TFR for next year?

[Warocks]

With cost of living so exp, lesser jobs, even the 70k given to new baby, only enough for uni fees next time. I guess the TFR is 0.85 next year.

My guess for 2027 is a resident TFR of about 0.85, with a plausible range of 0.78 to 0.92. That would mean roughly 25,000 to 26,500 resident births and a crude birth rate of about 6.0 to 6.3 per 1,000 residents.

Here's the reasoning:

• Starting point: Singapore's preliminary resident TFR for 2025 was 0.87, down from 0.97 in 2024, and the crude birth rate was 6.5 per 1,000 residents.
• Trend: The decline has been steep. The TFR was 1.24 a decade ago. Citizen marriages also fell 5.6% in 2025, which points to fewer first births ahead.
• Why not a rebound: 2027 is a Goat/Sheep year, which some Chinese families see as less auspicious for babies, and the Chinese resident TFR is already down to 0.70.
• Why not a steeper fall: The 2025 drop of about 10% was unusually sharp and partly reverses the Dragon-year bump of 2024. A smaller decline or a flattening is more likely than another double-digit drop, especially with new pro-natal measures being discussed.

The main uncertainty is policy. Any big new baby-bonus or housing incentive could nudge the number up, but those effects have historically been small.

 

[vj_style]

A town in Japan recently buck the trend. Can learn from them.

 

[Warocks]

Your 70k will be gone instantly.

For Singapore university in 2051, assuming 3% annual fee inflation:

• Local university tuition: S$73k–105k
• Tuition + living expenses: S$120k–150k
• Monthly investment needed: About S$225/month to reach S$150k in 25 years, assuming 5% annual returns.

These are estimates, not guaranteed future costs.

 

[nasilemak100]

not an issue tbh.

the solution is import

 

[Krabs.]

i thought of the solution

1.5 year LTVP for women of any country ....... naturally will attract those from developing area

but need to counter it with exclusion from women's charter , impossible task to do carve-out
and a system to block them from doing vice or going to sham "husband" when reality is polygamy to rich men

end of 1.5 yr must have baby , if not cancel the LTVP

this will cause under-achiever males to have offspring

 

[MizunoVolley]

0.5 also can, fear of jobs replaced by AI, who still dare to give birth?

 

[Warocks]

0.5 also can, fear of jobs replaced by AI, who still dare to give birth?

exactly, is going to get worse 70k is small due to inflation

 

[Ethan_]

A town in Japan recently buck the trend. Can learn from them.

Think there are a few bah. Successful population growth. They aggressively redirected their resources toward long term family support. If not free, also heavy subsidies.

Think what they doing is something local not willing to go more in bah. Or it seems local effort not enough to tip the balance over. But there is enough to do so.

Think they are not doing anything out of the ordinary that other places not doing. Difference is how much is enough to tip the balance in flavour of positive population growth. They did it aggressively to tip it over.

Think beside childcare and financial, just stick to the basics like housing, education, medical and transport (as always mentioned). Give heavy subsidies, if not free to those families with kids, more when have more kids. There should be a magic number that can tip the balance in flavour of positive population growth, which think currently local have not hit that.

And for local, think aggressive employment support also. If want the people to help themselves more. The people need the stability in work environment in term of better and stable income, to be able to feel its ok to have more children. Local the employment situation keep getting worse for the people. More have no confident to have children when they own self not sure if can feed own self.

 

[Shion]

ZERO is a possibility too

 

[Ev0d3vil]

0.5 also can, fear of jobs replaced by AI, who still dare to give birth?

I don’t dare.. better use rubber

 

[buttbERry]

not surprised if so

 

[Heriophant]

Population to reach 6.67mill

 

[havetheveryfun]

Your 70k will be gone instantly.

For Singapore university in 2051, assuming 3% annual fee inflation:

• Local university tuition: S$73k–105k
• Tuition + living expenses: S$120k–150k
• Monthly investment needed: About S$225/month to reach S$150k in 25 years, assuming 5% annual returns.

These are estimates, not guaranteed future costs.

true the increase in benefits useless.

I asked around my corlicks who stopped at one or those who choose not to have kids, if they would continue to have another kid due to all these benefits. all of them were a resounding NO.

Only those who already planned to have kids will feel maybe incentivized to have 1 more kid. thats all. so it will maybe only help TFR by 0.05 only.

The easy picking fruits are actually the singles which the gahmen don't want to help. A lot of singles want to have kids but cannot find a partner. Help male sinkies buy overseas bride for cheaper etc. Help female sinkies find dates.

 

[Warocks]

true the increase in benefits useless.

I asked around my corlicks who stopped at one or those who choose not to have kids, if they would continue to have another kid due to all these benefits. all of them were a resounding NO.

Only those who already planned to have kids will feel maybe incentivized to have 1 more kid. thats all. so it will maybe only help TFR by 0.05 only.

The easy picking fruits are actually the singles which the gahmen don't want to help. A lot of singles want to have kids but cannot find a partner. Help male sinkies buy overseas bride for cheaper etc. Help female sinkies find dates.

Our gen the price of raising kids is too exp

Last gen, easier as hdb is only 70k and inflation not so bad.

Plus, last gen, is 10+ children take care of 2 parents. Easy.

 

[havetheveryfun]

Our gen the price of raising kids is too exp

Last gen, easier as hdb is only 70k and inflation not so bad.

Plus, last gen, is 10+ children take care of 2 parents. Easy.

think is just not about being exp.. overcrowding is another issue. feels stifled.

everytime i go work i see some parents pushing the baby pram. cannot board the train.

 

[popsune1]

I think should be lower.

 

[NintendoSwitch]

true the increase in benefits useless.

I asked around my corlicks who stopped at one or those who choose not to have kids, if they would continue to have another kid due to all these benefits. all of them were a resounding NO.

Only those who already planned to have kids will feel maybe incentivized to have 1 more kid. thats all. so it will maybe only help TFR by 0.05 only.

The easy picking fruits are actually the singles which the gahmen don't want to help. A lot of singles want to have kids but cannot find a partner. Help male sinkies buy overseas bride for cheaper etc. Help female sinkies find dates.

Male sinkies easy to gao dim. There was another thread about Batam? Female Sinkies si impossible due to hypergamy. All want hansum Kpop looks who ish domineering CEO who is rich like Crazy Rich Asians yet still got time to spend on her.

 

[lifeisinforashock]

Betting on 0.75 for 2026.

 

[cunning]

People smart, don't want to pass the hardship to the next gen.

 

[ShinnAsuka]

let me predict. next year sg will hit fresh lows of tfr in the 0.6s