2020 market expectations and positioning

[limster]

Bought Microsoft, Nvidia, Visa, MasterCard

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good to see other buyers!

added more GSK last nite too!

 

[SpeedingBullet]

It is so great to be working. If you notice every year as your networth increases, what was considered as high allocation few years back now becomes small allocation, in percentage terms. So your initial allocation will always become more and more conservative, as years pass by, if you don't allocate more. So we have this natural hedge while we are working. So we should just relax and stop watching the markets and focus on other interesting things. Markets are very addictive, but it is detrimental to our networth. The best returns are made by people who don't even know what is going on in the market.

I wish I can find another hobby and forget about markets.

Very true. Before I started working, I was monitoring the market on a daily basis, traded so often. I think I made some money but it wasn't significant.

Now after working for a couple of years, literally have no time for the markets. Just invest and concentrate on other things - it's less stressful, I tend to make more money actually since I ride out the capital gains (esp. the US stocks).

Like Mike, I run alot too, that takes your mind off things. Cycling works as well!

 

[MrHighlander]

So much money on the sidelines

Stocks never really drop and keep pumping

Great melt up !

 

[revhappy]

There is speculation that Singapore budget will be expansionary to counter the effects of the virus. So this could be the reason why STI is bouyant.

 

[coolhead]

There is speculation that Singapore budget will be expansionary to counter the effects of the virus. So this could be the reason why STI is bouyant.

MAS has already taken on an expansionary approach by bringing the policy band for currency upwards. This means that the devaluation of sgp will be in line with other major basket of currencies.

Devaluation of currency is achieved by selling sgp into the market or buying foreign currenies.

As to the Singapore budget, it is targeted towards government spending in typical areas like healthcare. you maybe talking about helicopter money via gst handout or handouts to alleviate impact to household. singapore always does it during budget surplus so it may not be right to call it helicopter money since it is used in times of distress.

correct me if I'm wrong.

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[Mecisteus]

Like Mike, I run alot too, that takes your mind off things. Cycling works as well!

I clocked 122km of running in Jan.

Currently 75km in Feb so far.

 

[Trader11]

Looks like bad news are already priced in. Any small positive will trigger upside

 

[d9_lives]

I clocked 122km of running in Jan.

Currently 75km in Feb so far.

What's your time for 5k and 10k?
I've been trying to improve my pb but stuck at 26min and 57min since last year.
Run buddies said too much muscles (fat) , got to reduce my weight.

 

[coolhead]

I clocked 122km of running in Jan.

Currently 75km in Feb so far.

jiayou. i also aim to clock 120km per month...

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[peterpango]

Recession here and what to do. . At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.

 

[Mecisteus]

What's your time for 5k and 10k?
I've been trying to improve my pb but stuck at 26min and 57min since last year.
Run buddies said too much muscles (fat) , got to reduce my weight.

Just checked my Garmin data.

So far don't have exact 5km and 10km runs.

6.5 and 8km runs were at ~4.30 min/km pace.

 

[Thoreldan]

Recession here and what to do. . At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.

Recession where ? Singapore ?
World index all time high...

 

[coolhead]

Recession where ? Singapore ?
World index all time high...

piang eh.... stock market is not the same as economic indicators....

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[Thoreldan]

piang eh.... stock market is not the same as economic indicators....

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So u mean stock price / indexes can still soar during a recession ?

 

[coolhead]

So u mean stock price / indexes can still soar during a recession ?

do u intend to troll?

my rationale for asking is because first you mention that indexes are at all time high when being asked about recession, which i responded that both are different signals. 1 is a financial signal, the other an economic signal. Actually, the fact that i mentioned stock market as a signal shows my bias that i believe there is some intervention in the stock market.
in any case, you questioned if stock market all time high can still take place during a recession. hence, my troll sensors came up.

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[SpeedingBullet]

I clocked 122km of running in Jan.

Currently 75km in Feb so far.

u made me count mine lol... im abt 183km for Jan. 68km for Feb

i dont usually count distance but go by HR and total elev. gain, but i guess mileage is quite fun to count!

What's your time for 5k and 10k?
I've been trying to improve my pb but stuck at 26min and 57min since last year.
Run buddies said too much muscles (fat) , got to reduce my weight.

Incorporate some speed work (fartleks, intervals, etc.)? It can shave off minutes if done consistently right and injury-free

 

[Thoreldan]

do u intend to troll?

my rationale for asking is because first you mention that indexes are at all time high when being asked about recession, which i responded that both are different signals. 1 is a financial signal, the other an economic signal. Actually, the fact that i mentioned stock market as a signal shows my bias that i believe there is some intervention in the stock market.
in any case, you questioned if stock market all time high can still take place during a recession. hence, my troll sensors came up.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

U need to relax man. I have very little knowledge on financial/economy stuff hence asking a question.

Not everybody here is as well learnt as you

 

[MrHighlander]

I can understand FOMO better now

Seeing how the indexes rise I feel it

 

[coolhead]

U need to relax man. I have very little knowledge on financial/economy stuff hence asking a question.

Not everybody here is as well learnt as you

I'm not really well learnt, still learning the ropes.

the short theoretical answer is stock market performance is a leading indicator of recession by about 6 months.

the not so simple answer is that intervention into stock market can prolong its bullishness even in the face of deteriorating economic conditions, e.g repo liquidity or lower interest rate in US. imo, the hope is that even when faced with poor economic conditions, the intervention can help smoothen the poor economic conditions and give time for the economy to pick up again.

it's hard to answer for each stock market as you need to account for the make up of the stocks in that market, how much of the basket of stocks listed within that index is impacted by the country-specific recession.

in any case, the most recent asian economy to enter recession is hong kong in nov 2019, the stock market is not outstanding but still decent.



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[Trader11]

SG budget potentially 7.9 Billion. STI might overblown from this