2020 market expectations and positioning

[revhappy]

stocks(US+SG) is 56% of stocks + cash

Thanks, your timing sense is generally good. All the best!

 

[Mecisteus]

Thanks, your timing sense is generally good. All the best!

There is no timing element there.

If my timing is good, I will put everything in Dec/18.

And sell on the next peak.

I am just doing ad hoc rebalancing. Buy gradually when market is down, sell gradually when market is up.

 

[NewInvestor]

CNBC: Trump again pushes negative interest rates, but Kudlow says they don't work.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/tru...ive-rates-but-kudlow-says-they-dont-work.html

Negative rates

 

[Okenba]

There is no timing element there.

If my timing is good, I will put everything in Dec/18.

And sell on the next peak.

I am just doing ad hoc rebalancing. Buy gradually when market is down, sell gradually when market is up.

What metric do you use to tell you when the market is down and when it is up?

 

[Mecisteus]

What metric do you use to tell you when the market is down and when it is up?

For the US market is the S&P or DOW. Isn't it?

This is also a good indicator of the market.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=SF_INV_FG

 

[DukeCS33]

https://philnews.ph/2020/01/24/virologist-who-helped-fight-sars-says-wuhan-coronavirus-is-10x-worse/

US lodged it’s second case while Europe reported 3 for the first time. This would be the catalyst for the next sell off.

 

[NewInvestor]

https://philnews.ph/2020/01/24/virologist-who-helped-fight-sars-says-wuhan-coronavirus-is-10x-worse/

US lodged it’s second case while Europe reported 3 for the first time. This would be the catalyst for the next sell off.

This article fails to explain why this doctor thinks it is 10x worse than SARS. And it does not address whether this virus is as lethal as SARS. The figures so far seem to indicate a 5% deathrate - if correct, then it is less lethal than SARS.

 

[BBCWatcher]

While “past performance is not indicative of future results,” SARS had no impact whatsoever on long-term investors. Speculators had some things they could try, but they always do. SARS negatively impacted airlines, vacation travel providers, restaurants, public entertainment industries, and most retailers (except for supermarkets) for a relatively short time. Delivery services and healthcare had a little tailwind.

The overall Hong Kong economy entered a technical recession in the first half of 2003, conventionally defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, but quickly shook it off.

There’s some bad news/good news with this “Wuhan” strain. The bad news is that the virus has geographically dispersed, so it has the opportunity for toeholds in various places. SARS in Singapore in 2003 would have stopped at 3 cases, all returning vacationers from Hong Kong, but the evidence suggests that the virus managed to leap from only one of those three people to create Singapore’s whole SARS breakout, which took nearly 3 months to get under control and which claimed several lives. Also, travel freezes and airport screening don’t work, at least not directly. It’s possible they might indirectly increase public awareness to take basic precautions like good hand washing and to isolate oneself when sick.

The good news is that the public health professionals identified this virus super quickly, the information sharing is much better, and while the “Wuhan” strain isn’t fully understood yet it doesn’t seem to be as deadly as SARS was. I think the jury is still out on how transmissible it is. It can leap from human to human, but how easily is still not entirely clear. We’ll see how it goes, but I’m cautiously optimistic.

 

[coolhead]

https://philnews.ph/2020/01/24/virol...-is-10x-worse/

US lodged it*********s second case while Europe reported 3 for the first time. This would be the catalyst for the next sell off.

i wouldn't underestimate the power of the fed.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[NewInvestor]

What we know about China’s mystery Wuhan coronavi…: https://youtu.be/HpsOWhAvHvQ

A reasonable explanation of this virus

 

[NewInvestor]

While “past performance is not indicative of future results,” SARS had no impact whatsoever on long-term investors. Speculators had some things they could try, but they always do. SARS negatively impacted airlines, vacation travel providers, restaurants, public entertainment industries, and most retailers (except for supermarkets) for a relatively short time. Delivery services and healthcare had a little tailwind.

The overall Hong Kong economy entered a technical recession in the first half of 2003, conventionally defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, but quickly shook it off.

There’s some bad news/good news with this “Wuhan” strain. The bad news is that the virus has geographically dispersed, so it has the opportunity for toeholds in various places. SARS in Singapore in 2003 would have stopped at 3 cases, all returning vacationers from Hong Kong, but the evidence suggests that the virus managed to leap from only one of those three people to create Singapore’s whole SARS breakout, which took nearly 3 months to get under control and which claimed several lives. Also, travel freezes and airport screening don’t work, at least not directly. It’s possible they might indirectly increase public awareness to take basic precautions like good hand washing and to isolate oneself when sick.

The good news is that the public health professionals identified this virus super quickly, the information sharing is much better, and while the “Wuhan” strain isn’t fully understood yet it doesn’t seem to be as deadly as SARS was. I think the jury is still out on how transmissible it is. It can leap from human to human, but how easily is still not entirely clear. We’ll see how it goes, but I’m cautiously optimistic.

That's a good assessment, BBC. From a purely stock market perspective, if there is a significant sell off due to this situation, it does seem like a buying opportunity.

 

[highsulphur]

Buy the dip!

 

[DukeCS33]

That's a good assessment, BBC. From a purely stock market perspective, if there is a significant sell off due to this situation, it does seem like a buying opportunity.

Too many versions and opinions. Some experts warned that this Wuhan virus is more contagious and deadly than SARS. So who is right and more importantly, how would the market react? This is where volume price analysis becomes very useful in identifying potential turning points. Initial knee jerk reaction may be a sell off and next 3 months may be painful as the virus spreads and depress sentiments. Aside from the markets, I would suggest that everyone takes care of their health and take the necessary precautions... The virus has hit our shores.

 

[Kapish]

the US alone is not enough to drive the world economy. if china shuts down everything for months how will they be able to service the burgeoning debt? more defaults will happen, recession will follow and the rest of the world will fall like dominoes. now is really not the time to buy the dip

 

[NewInvestor]

the US alone is not enough to drive the world economy. if china shuts down everything for months how will they be able to service the burgeoning debt? more defaults will happen, recession will follow and the rest of the world will fall like dominoes. now is really not the time to buy the dip

Wait for dominoes to fall first?

 

[decibel.]

the US alone is not enough to drive the world economy. if china shuts down everything for months how will they be able to service the burgeoning debt? more defaults will happen, recession will follow and the rest of the world will fall like dominoes. now is really not the time to buy the dip

Hong Kong first to go given the riots and now the virus.

Sent from HUAWEI VOG-L29 using GAGT

 

[NewInvestor]

CNBC Television: Investors are happy focusing on short-term market returns, Mohamed El-Erian says.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlMbjlndr6U

It is a liquidity driven rally

 

[revhappy]

The timing of this whole thing and the place where it has hit, is the most unfortunate thing. Although, no place should have been hit with such a deadly thing, of all places, China was just recovering from the trade war hit. Now that recovery could be delayed. Last year HSI fell because of protests, now it will fall because of China slowdown.

Yet, on Bloomberg, the experts are still saying that 2020 will be good for emerging markets. How can it be good, when China is major part of the emerging market? Europe has gone up last qtr of 2019, due to hope, more than anything else. With China getting affected how long will this Europe hope rally last?

Overall, if there is a nice 10% dip, I would buy, but not jump at the 1st 1%-2% dip. Current allocation is 35% to equities, it is focussed on Japan, Singapore and India. I may look at selling puts initially instead of outright buying.

I think this thing will peak in 2 weeks, so lets wait.

 

[Mecisteus]

My take is 10% max correction for US market.

Just a guess only.

 

[revhappy]