2020 market expectations and positioning

[_dXter]

HK REITs Vs Singapore REITs.

https://www.straitstimes.com/busine...s-reluctant-to-spin-off-properties-into-reits

There was news that Far East Consortium would be looking for REITs IPO on SGX with first property the Dorsett hotel in Outram. So at least one of them is looking to list here.

 

[revhappy]

There was news that Far East Consortium would be looking for REITs IPO on SGX with first property the Dorsett hotel in Outram. So at least one of them is looking to list here.

Yes, apparently Singapore is an attractive destination for overseas REITs also to list. Found this article, overseas ETFs also have wrapper that invest in SG REITs.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=41399

 

[_dXter]

Yes, apparently Singapore is an attractive destination for overseas REITs also to list. Found this article, overseas ETFs also have wrapper that invest in SG REITs.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=41399

Key reason why SREITS counters are increasing in these two days as funds channel into them? Ascendas REITS rose 8% in these two days since the Fed i/r reduction.

 

[ocs_woodlands]

after super Tuesday will be horrible Wednesday....

I haven't seen such a lame excuse for the highest ever point gain as Democrats voting in their super Tuesday states

it's almost like - the rally is due to the dog that ate the homework...

analists have to learn to write like this...

for an unknown reason, dow rallied 5% OR
for no good reason, dow fell 5%

 

[Eraval]

after super Tuesday will be horrible Wednesday....

I haven't seen such a lame excuse for the highest ever point gain as Democrats voting in their super Tuesday states

it's almost like - the rally is due to the dog that ate the homework...

analists have to learn to write like this...

for an unknown reason, dow rallied 5% OR
for no good reason, dow fell 5%

Easy, if fall can just say "Fears in investors as more deaths lead to panic selling"
if rise can also say "Residual confidence from Super Tuesday as more investors are looking optimistic"

 

[Dividends Warrior]

analists have to learn to write like this...

for an unknown reason, dow rallied 5% OR
for no good reason, dow fell 5%

They typically prepare 2 headlines beforehand. If market red, they use the bearish headline. If market green, they use the bullish headline.

 

[Newbyib]

after super Tuesday will be horrible Wednesday....

I haven't seen such a lame excuse for the highest ever point gain as Democrats voting in their super Tuesday states

it's almost like - the rally is due to the dog that ate the homework...

analists have to learn to write like this...

for an unknown reason, dow rallied 5% OR
for no good reason, dow fell 5%

Actually the risk of Sanders being elected is quite real given that the democrats are quite”tribal”.
But actually the other factor playing into the rally is the passing of fundings to fight the virus by congress.

 

[coolhead]

snp500 can go down 1 to 2.5%, not more than that pls...

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[revhappy]

Europe is breaking down right now. Especially banks. It is just amazing, how Europe has come down in one swift move. It just went up in vacuum and now coming down to its rightful place.

 

[revhappy]

snp500 can go down 1 to 2.5%, not more than that pls...

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

I would like the S&P500 to crash. Equities have risk in them, you need to have few years when they have negative returns, otherwise, why should people own bonds at all?

 

[coolhead]

I would like the S&P500 to crash. Equities have risk in them, you need to have few years when they have negative returns, otherwise, why should people own bonds at all?

but bonds have never been so heavily purchased before. all the major institutions/pension funds are into bonds.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[churnmaster]

Key reason why SREITS counters are increasing in these two days as funds channel into them? Ascendas REITS rose 8% in these two days since the Fed i/r reduction.

Yup, SREITs are the only counters showing decent moves over the last few days ... Bought some couple of days back and now mostly out on the rally.

 

[tomatoman]

So excited!!!!!!!

There is a limit for reits, dun think it will exceed 15% cap

 

[churnmaster]

The overnight price action appears as if the Market has totally ignored Covid 19 and latched on to the 50bps cut and Biden's results on SuperTuesday to buy up the market. So where were the sellers that were pushing the SP down just 2 nights ago? The strong selling coupled by heavy volume then, suggests that the funds were in. Now there are some ways to interpret this - climatic volume hides buying from smart monies... so was that smart monies looking to scoop things up?
Last night, we had a strong surge but look at the volume - it was significantly lesser than the prior 2 days. It is still high volume but way lesser than prior 2 days. Would this then suggest that the smart monies are not backing this overnight rally? There may be institutional monies pushing as with volume that is high but the smart monies? Maybe they are only willing to buy at lower levels and not at current levels.... or maybe they were absent altogether which presents a stark picture that the selling 2 days ago were all funds looking to exit and last night's rally profit taking by short term funds. The jury is yet to be out but I note a few key points:
1. The rally from the bottom was resisted and turned at the 50% Fibonacci mark at 3125
2. Algo funds appear to be testing and pushing minor boundaries on both ends in the recent selloffs and rallies.
3. 3050 level is that level of congestion where the battle appears to be fought and is a key pivotal point.

From a fundamental perspective, the Central banks' actions so far would not mitigate the effects of a recession caused by a virus due to both demand and supply shock. Clearly, the professional market did not believe in Fed's cuts and hence that sell off on announcement. However, given the reaction observed yesterday, we may need a more "serious" infection headline to spark the next sell off. And I would venture to say that we can only expect such headline news to get more serious as containment efforts have clearly failed.

On a whole, I would opine that we currently have a technical rebound. My macro interpretation is that it is still early days and that the only cure for the market's malaise / Covid 19, is scientific and not fiscal nor monetary. I would stick to my gameplan to trade short term and play the volatility to my advantage. Key direction is short (sell on rallies) and more on break below recent lows.

PS: To forumers who privately message me to look at certain stocks or for views, I would apologise if you did not receive my response. It takes time and effort to analyse - if you ask me, I would do some homework before replying.

Very well articulated ... I think market would consolidate for next few days between 2850 and 3135, allowing the 20 and 50 dma to converge towards the 200 dma (around 3050 now). The wild gyrations are definitely providing an opportunity to trade.

 

[lasnoblur]

They typically prepare 2 headlines beforehand. If market red, they use the bearish headline. If market green, they use the bullish headline.

this is kind of true.

always have a reason for market movement.

 

[Newbyib]

I would like the S&P500 to crash. Equities have risk in them, you need to have few years when they have negative returns, otherwise, why should people own bonds at all?

Great that you’re into bonds now. You can actually borrow against your bond holdings to buy into SPY etc or IWDA and yet earn the difference between the coupon rate and the interest rate. You can also take the dividend stream at the same time while waiting for the capital growth.

 

[lasnoblur]

Covid-19 is clearly spreading in EU.
Italy has closed its entire country's schools to contain the spread.

2 digit new cases in US, including community spread in NYC.

All will eventually impact global economy .

Market ignored the events or it was already priced in last week's plunged?

News mentioned market rally due Biden's win... BS?

my company offices in EU is closed and all work from home.

however SG office did not implement this.

This crisis is not so straight forward.

 

[limster]

if US market going to drop today, then according to the pattern, on Friday it will go up, so if you buy US market now, is it free money when you sell tomorrow?

anyway, i'm buying into the videoconferencing narrative, gonna queue me some CSCO tonite at under $40, looks good for long term holding

 

[coolhead]

if US market going to drop today, then according to the pattern, on Friday it will go up, so if you buy US market now, is it free money when you sell tomorrow?

anyway, i'm buying into the videoconferencing narrative, gonna queue me some CSCO tonite at under $40, looks good for long term holding

but will investors/speculators scare to hold over weekend?

 

[ocs_woodlands]

Bond yields are tumbling by 4.5%....

At this rate, maybe cathartic event next 1 or 2 weeks....