2020 market expectations and positioning

[Mecisteus]

my plan is roughly the same as 2008-2009. Buy small amounts first, while waiting for STI ETF to drop to $2.99, then start buying bigger amounts and start averaging down every 10 cents! I'll have similar plans to accumulate other ETFs.

I am still using the same spreadsheet so i can easily check my investing decisions from that period.

During the last GFC, I made a very big mistake.

I didn't keep enough cash and I was almost fully invested in 2007.

My portfolio went down by 60% when the market bottomed.

But good thing I did not sell out and quit.

 

[ahboy82]

High6 digit!!! One can only envy

im also allocating a high 6digit warchest. v excited.


darn. i didnt enter alot since 2014, luckily cash has been performing well in ocbc 360 etc since oct 2014.

11yr bull run. gosh.





just shot my first bullet of 20k yday. i will enter alot alot if correction is ard 65% of IWDA all time high

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[coolhead]

During the last GFC, I made a very big mistake.

I didn't keep enough cash and I was almost fully invested in 2007.

My portfolio went down by 60% when the market bottomed.

But good thing I did not sell out and quit.

I'm curious as I didn't go thru the 2008-2009 experience, was in NS then. was it as bad as this week?

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[Mecisteus]

I'm curious as I didn't go thru the 2008-2009 experience, was in NS then. was it as bad as this week?

I remember it was a slow and painful slide to the bottom.

I prefer this time around. 1 week already down by 10%.

At this rate, end of month down 40-50%.

So the wait is shorter and less painful.

You know market will only get better from there.

 

[d9_lives]

During the last GFC, I made a very big mistake.

I didn't keep enough cash and I was almost fully invested in 2007.

My portfolio went down by 60% when the market bottomed.

But good thing I did not sell out and quit.

Uh oh... I am in similar situation.
Advice?

 

[coolhead]

I remember it was a slow and painful slide to the bottom.

I prefer this time around. 1 week already down by 10%.

At this rate, end of month down 40-50%.

So the wait is shorter and less painful.



You know market will only get better from there.

i see. thanks for your insight.

edit: come to think of it, it's only the US and europe side experiencing such madness. Singapore side is pretty slow still. maybe the higher the pump, the more drastic the fall.
STI hasn't even surpass 2008 highs yet.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[d9_lives]

I remember it was a slow and painful slide to the bottom.

I prefer this time around. 1 week already down by 10%.

At this rate, end of month down 40-50%.

So the wait is shorter and less painful.

You know market will only get better from there.

At current rate, I prob. will see red from next wed/thu. Erasing all the gain in 2019.
Not necessarily bad though.

 

[d5dude]

During the last GFC, I made a very big mistake.

I didn't keep enough cash and I was almost fully invested in 2007.

My portfolio went down by 60% when the market bottomed.

But good thing I did not sell out and quit.

This is why a stocks + bonds portfolio is superior to an all stocks portfolio, and by bonds I mean high quality gov bonds, not corporate debt, junk bonds or reits.

 

[Mecisteus]

Uh oh... I am in similar situation.
Advice?

1) Do not use leverage now!

2) Review your portfolio. Cut all the junk stocks. These are the stocks that are going to pull down your portfolio if the correction is very deep.

3) If you sell junk stocks, buy into solid and bigger caps.

4) Whatever stocks you sold when the market goes down, never ever put that into cash. You may miss on the recovery by sitting out.

 

[Mecisteus]

This is why a stocks + bonds portfolio is superior to an all stocks portfolio, and by bonds I mean high quality gov bonds, not corporate debt, junk bonds or reits.

Not necessarily correct.

Your bond and equities allocation depends on your risk appetite and tolerance.

I have a very big appetite for risk.

I can just keep everything in stocks and cash only.

Keeping stocks and bonds means you are giving up long term gains in exchange for lower volatility.

 

[limster]

This is why a stocks + bonds portfolio is superior to an all stocks portfolio, and by bonds I mean high quality gov bonds, not corporate debt, junk bonds or reits.

i got no problem with corporate debt. if i run out of cash, it seems i can still sell my 85k SIA unrated retail bonds for above face value, not to mention my Fraser's 3.65%, Astrea IV, V, and Temasek 2.7%... maybe I should do it sooner than later just in case

 

[d5dude]

i see. thanks for your insight.

edit: come to think of it, it's only the US and europe side experiencing such madness. Singapore side is pretty slow still. maybe the higher the pump, the more drastic the fall.
STI hasn't even surpass 2008 highs yet.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

STI also dropped 90 pts today, not like its immuned to market volatility.

 

[addict951]

Wow, chopra, you're going to throw 900K into Dow/STi ah?

 

[d5dude]

Not necessarily correct.

Your bond and equities allocation depends on your risk appetite and tolerance.

I have a very big appetite for risk.

I can just keep everything in stocks and cash only.

Keeping stocks and bonds means you are giving up long term gains in exchange for lower volatility.

Bonds can go up in value when the market crashes, cash doesn't go up in value. Holding cash means that you give up even more gains.

 

[d5dude]

i got no problem with corporate debt. if i run out of cash, it seems i can still sell my 85k SIA unrated retail bonds for above face value, not to mention my Fraser's 3.65%, Astrea IV, V, and Temasek 2.7%... maybe I should do it sooner than later just in case

I'd sell them if I were you, US junk bond index already plunged past 3 days.

 

[Dividends]

Bonds can go up in value when the market crashes, cash doesn't go up in value. Holding cash means that you give up even more gains.

Yup, you can sell your bonds anytime too should you decide to take advantage of the downturn and buy some equities at low price.

 

[coolhead]

STI also dropped 90 pts today, not like its immuned to market volatility.

while that is true, looking at djia down 12.7%, korea exchange down 13%, nikkei down 12%, sti down 8.1%.
these are from their peak 1 month ago. it's just not as volatile yet.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[Mecisteus]

Bonds can go up in value when the market crashes, cash doesn't go up in value. Holding cash means that you give up even more gains.

That is why bonds and equities will lower overall volatility of the whole portfolio.

You sacrifice some long term gains.

 

[revhappy]

i see. thanks for your insight.

edit: come to think of it, it's only the US and europe side experiencing such madness. Singapore side is pretty slow still. maybe the higher the pump, the more drastic the fall.
STI hasn't even surpass 2008 highs yet.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

Yeah, this time, we should really look at 2018 Jan as the peak, when all global markets had rallied and reach their peaks. Since then there has been a big divergence in markets. For Asian markets, the Jan 2018 peak was never crossed during the 2019 upmove, due to Trump trade war. So investor positioning was entirely towards US and Europe. So Asian should see lesser fall.

Now I see that my reasoning to stay away from markets in 2019, made sense and even when i started getting back in, I was more comfortable with Asia and Singapore.

 

[MrHighlander]

Just loaded some more ES3 at 3.026

Not much - just 8K

Surprised that all my limit orders are hit

What’s happening ???

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