2020 market expectations and positioning

[Opps-gal]

LOL you use vickers????

Cash upfront top up cannot use. Taking so long not fix?

 

[Trader11]

Apparently China Market is calmer than US

 

[commie_rick]

Imagine you are a company. In times of stress, what you need is capital. You need cheap funding sources and you need your stock valuation to not plummet as valuation plummets your ability to raise cash goes down.

This works for company's going for IPO.

Decline in share price will not affect listed companies ability to borrow money.

The decline in share price could be a result of:

a. Weak fundamentals (which affects any company regardless of being listed. i.e a Private limited wish to borrow money from the bank but cant convince credit worthy from its books), thus low investor confidence

b. Market emotions, Interest rate went up (people are paying more for mortgage thus less discretionary spend on other things i.e investments)

 

[churnmaster]

MBH & ABF haven't really gone up today, inspite of the US rate cut. Why?

Well, at least the S REIT index is showing some bounce.

Point is with the kind of monetary easing to be followed by fiscal stimulus in most of the developed as well as emerging economies, whether we will see a lot of this cheap money flowing into Singapore. Singapore, being fiscally a better managed economy and the way in which this COVID-19 crisis has been handled so far, really sets it apart from the rest.

 

[DukeCS33]

Well, at least the S REIT index is showing some bounce.

Point is with the kind of monetary easing to be followed by fiscal stimulus in most of the developed as well as emerging economies, whether we will see a lot of this cheap money flowing into Singapore. Singapore, being fiscally a better managed economy and the way in which this COVID-19 crisis has been handled so far, really sets it apart from the rest.

You have a very good point. I was also wondering if Singapore may be a safe haven contingent on the management and containment of covid 19 here. This would be balanced against contagion from stock markets around Asia and in the West falling out.
Governments and central banks, worried about an economic fallout are front loading both fiscal and monetary measures. I am not sure if that may contain the sell off or a bearish market brought about by a recession... but to a certain extent, it is putting forth a strong case for a sharp V-shape rebound.

Back to the present:
https://goodyfeed.com/covid-warns-more-cases-in-spore/

I think we need to be prepared for a spike in cases here and worldwide. The stock markets will not be able to escape the bearishness from such headlines. That said, I think the measures put forth by governments would just cause volatility to spike as markets whip around in a choppy fashion.

 

[revhappy]

MAS could ease now that would send SGD lower and STI will shoot up. Last time also same thing happened.

 

[boroangel]

Not sure if this plan will work but taking a gamble and that March and April will be the period where I am going to buy.

Will buy 1 stock per day from now till mid April, so that's about 30 days of stock purchase, can be same stock or different stocks, both in SG and US. Using IBKR so 1 dollar commission per stock is fine.

After April, will buy progressively every 2 weeks.

 

[commie_rick]

Not sure if this plan will work but taking a gamble and that March and April will be the period where I am going to buy.

Will buy 1 stock per day from now till mid April, so that's about 30 days of stock purchase, can be same stock or different stocks, both in SG and US. Using IBKR so 1 dollar commission per stock is fine.

After April, will buy progressively every 2 weeks.

It is more expensive if you buy one stock per transaction. The commission isn’t worth it . Brokerage will be happy

 

[h.y.o.m]

Is it rationale to expect the Fed to buy stocks to support the market when company earnings deteriorate due to covid 19 induced slowdown? How would Fed justify that? Japan's QE experiment did not get them anywhere.

Given that it was only less than 2 weeks ago that S&P500 hit its all-time high, it is hard to justify the Fed coming in to support stocks soon, even if the Fed has the legal power to do this.

 

[DukeCS33]

MAS could ease now that would send SGD lower and STI will shoot up. Last time also same thing happened.

It is not that simple. Our trading partners would also ease and negate the effect of the SGD weakening. Easing the SGD would only do so much if we are faced with both a supply and demand shock. I am inclined to think that the MAS did a pre-emptive jawboning prior knowing that other countries would cut rates and their currencies may weaken as a result.

 

[h.y.o.m]

The market knows that cutting interest rates would not help spur activities as everyone is holing up due to the pandemic.

Potentially massive bear trap in the making.

I agree.

Fundamental-wise, interest rate cut doesn't look like an appropriate economic cure for this virus. On the supply side, interest rate cut doesn't help in the supply shortages caused by people not reporting to work due to the virus. On the demand side, interest rate cut is supposed to help but it is not going to help much this time if people are staying at home and not spending because they are afraid of the virus. Someone can make tons of money shorting the market but he is not going out to celebrate and spend in a big way if he is afraid of the virus. Probably he will stay holed up at home for safety.

Technical-wise, last night's market performance tells it all. Interest rate cut is expected to boost the stock markets. Look at the market's reaction last night to the massive 0.5% rate cut by the Fed.

 

[joshua182]

Apparently China Market is calmer than US

A ton of listed SOEs, and if you want biz from SOEs or want to continue conducting with SOEs, you just don't sell lol. then since the bbs dont and won't sell, retailers just leak abit.. thus, balance and control.. ccp wanshui.

 

[gnoes85]

Why some people keep thinking US market will only go up will not crash and keep chanting time to buy the dip? It is suppose to crash in 2018 like the china market but uncle sam inject to keep the index up. This time round they did the same thing but should be no help, the bubble is already too high.

 

[d9_lives]

Why some people keep thinking US market will only go up will not crash and keep chanting time to buy the dip? It is suppose to crash in 2018 like the china market but uncle sam inject to keep the index up. This time round they did the same thing but should be no help, the bubble is already too high.

The 40% crash in the next few months which you mentioned in other thread?
It's amazing that not only you know by how many % but also by when.
If it doesn't happen, feel free to make similar prediction next year.

 

[polyglob]

Why some people keep thinking US market will only go up will not crash and keep chanting time to buy the dip? It is suppose to crash in 2018 like the china market but uncle sam inject to keep the index up. This time round they did the same thing but should be no help, the bubble is already too high.

What does "it is suppose to crash" even mean?

 

[DukeCS33]

Given that it was only less than 2 weeks ago that S&P500 hit its all-time high, it is hard to justify the Fed coming in to support stocks soon, even if the Fed has the legal power to do this.

Fed is pre-empting. They know that if they do not do anything now, they may be deemed to be behind the curve even if they deliver an outsize cut later on. Powell acknowledge that the cut is not a solution but I guess it ticks several boxes - their hand would be forced later and they would have an angry trump blaming them even more. So I do not think that the cut was aimed at the stock market but rather to try blunt the blow of a slowdown that may be coming.

 

[MrHighlander]

I just bought some DBS and UOB shares

Oh well

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[limster]

I just bought some DBS and UOB shares

Oh well

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bought DBS at 23.88! remember when buying DBS, the last 2 digits of the buy price should be '88'. Just like the CEO!

 

[wutawa]

bought DBS at 23.88! remember when buying DBS, the last 2 digits of the buy price should be '88'. Just like the CEO!

Waiting for $18.88

 

[MrHighlander]

I also waiting

If got 18.88, will really unload lol

Waiting for $18.88

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