2021 Market Sentiment & Positioning

Shion

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Selected index stocks strengthen keeping STI resilient; SPH still in play

Selected index stocks strengthen keeping STI resilient; SPH still in play

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ca...rengthen-keeping-sti-resilient-sph-still-play

CapitaLand has strengthened, forming a white candle on Friday, March 5, accompanied by a notable increase in volume. This has been a trend since the last week of February, with white candle days attracting more buying. Quarterly momentum has rebounded off its equilibrium line. In addition, clear major positive divergences have formed between prices and annual momentum. As annual momentum recovers, it is likely to reinforce an upturn by quarterly momentum, which in turn should provide the impetus for a price break above resistance which coincides with the 50-day moving average at $3.25. In this event, the next resistance is at the 2021 high of $3.51. Support has been established at $3.12.

26201c-974-RT3.jpg


Although Singapore Airlines surged in the early part of Mar 1-5, it retreated to end the week of Mar 1-5 off its high. The chart pattern remains bullish. The price break above the six times tested resistance, which coincides with the top of a multi-month base formation indicates a target of $5.63, and this remains valid. Any retreat is likely to be temporary with initial support near $5.00 to $5.10.

Singapore Press Holdings continues to strengthen. This strength may abate a trifle in the week of Mar 8-12, but prices should be able to move progressively higher thereafter. SPH’s break above the top of a multi-month base at $1.25 indicated a target of $1.60. The subsequent move on Feb 23, clearing $1.25 decisively was accompanied by a surge in volume, and positive crosses between the 50- and 200-day moving averages. This move establishes support at the breakout level of $1.25. If up-momentum remains resilient, SPH could attempt to test the 2020 breakdown level of $2.

Right Timing was perhaps a bit too cautious on the technical outlook for the Straits Times Index. Positive indications on technical indicators are inevitably likely to be tempered by the volatility on Wall Street, with Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 particularly volatile. Add to this rising yields on the 10-year US Treasuries, and the US equity markets could take a nasty turn.

Despite the uncertainties in overseas markets, the STI closed the week of Mar 1-5 on a resilient note. The index broke down from 3,018 as Covid-19 turned into a pandemic and spread through the US in February and March 2020. These declines a year ago are likely to benefit annual momentum which has - mathematically at least - turned up and is rising. Two-year momentum has also turned up. These long term indicators are likely to keep the STI on an even keel. The next resistance is at 3,368 to 3,377, an area that was tested twice in 2019, but which the STI was not able to successfully challenge. Support is back at the rising 50-day moving average, currently at 2,925.

6692b3-974-RT4.jpg
 

moolala

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My trading philosophy is that you should choose 1 instrument and learn everything there is to know abt that instrument.I find this specialisation gives you an edge over non-specialised traders.

The S&P has different market regimes. Once you identify what regime it is in, it is then a matter of using the correct set of trading techniques. For example in the melt up phase post Christmas 2020, Buy and Hold positional trades were the winning technique. In the recent correction, fade the dip day trades were what made money.

are u trading alone? did u have working experience in this world before going full time? do u rely more on order flow or trade based on technical chart?

I like to think I have a very good feel of how spy is headed
 

RedsYWNA

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My trading philosophy is that you should choose 1 instrument and learn everything there is to know abt that instrument.I find this specialisation gives you an edge over non-specialised traders.

The S&P has different market regimes. Once you identify what regime it is in, it is then a matter of using the correct set of trading techniques. For example in the melt up phase post Christmas 2020, Buy and Hold positional trades were the winning technique. In the recent correction, fade the dip day trades were what made money.

Ah OK.. My preference is QQQ options. Much higher volatility. But I do have a day job so I can't do this all night. I just set limit prices while writing options. Which can be rather dangerous, so I set a margin of safety.

I find it quite funny that in Friday's price action, my QQQ put was the intra day high. Probably bcos I was slepping and didn't adjust while Nasdaq was plunging. Lol...
 

5408854088

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NFT (Non Fungible Tokens) - New Opportunities for artists and Cryptocurrencies

 

aurvandil

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are u trading alone? did u have working experience in this world before going full time? do u rely more on order flow or trade based on technical chart?

I like to think I have a very good feel of how spy is headed

I trade using order flow and volume profile. I also watch the FED and US credit markets very closely.

If there is something seriously wrong and the market is going to crash, there will be visible distress in the US credit markets.
 
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5408854088

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Senate passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill, House Democrats plan final approval Tuesday

The Senate passed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package on Saturday as Democrats rush to send out a fresh round of aid.

The Democratic-held House aims to pass the bill on Tuesday and send it to President Joe Biden for his signature before a March 14 deadline to renew unemployment aid programs. The Senate approved the plan in a 50-49 party line vote as Republicans questioned the need for another broad spending package.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/06/cov...nate-passes-1point9-trillion-relief-bill.html
 

5408854088

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Yellen says higher Treasury yields signal recovery, not inflation

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday said higher long-term Treasury debt yields were a sign market participants were anticipating a stronger recovery, not of increased inflation concerns.

“I don’t see that the markets are expecting inflation to rise above the 2% inflation objective that the Fed has as an average inflation rate over the longer run,” Yellen said in a PBS Newshour interview.

She added the United States needs faster job growth than seen during February, but can reach full employment by next year with President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in place.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-yellen-idUSKBN2AX2MO
 

5408854088

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CNN: President Joe Biden gives remarks after the Senate passed his $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan by a 50-49 vote.

 

RedsYWNA

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Covid is without doubt the most interesting period I have ever invested in!

Has the bubble shifted from EV and Tech to banks? DBS at $28.40? Really?
 

revhappy

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Chinese tech stocks getting fxxked. China A50 index is down 4.5%.

Meituan down 8%, JD down 6%. Bloodbath!
 

revhappy

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Guys, this is a bad omen, this is exactly how the dot com bubble burst started. 1st Nasdaq started correcting. People thought rotation, healthy correction etc. But then everything collapsed.

O3HinN2.png
 

coolhead

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Guys, this is a bad omen, this is exactly how the dot com bubble burst started. 1st Nasdaq started correcting. People thought rotation, healthy correction etc. But then everything collapsed.


O3HinN2.png

but there has to be a trigger point for the change from rotation narrative to total meltdown, i supoose? dot cum was really dot cum though, most internet companies weren't really making much revenues in 2020.

Posted from PCWX using my high crass Redmi K20 Pro
 

发哨子2020

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The newbies / kids are 100% in dreamland US tech .
Meanwhile the world is recovering from Covid-19.

One is in Mars and the other on a blue Earth.
 

paladin

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Guys, this is a bad omen, this is exactly how the dot com bubble burst started. 1st Nasdaq started correcting. People thought rotation, healthy correction etc. But then everything collapsed.

O3HinN2.png

Should be correction not crash la. Should be halfway there since nasdaq corrected 10%. Another 10% to go.

Tonight US markets should open high and end Low due to third stimulus exuberance. Opportunity to get out if still holding US tech stocks.
 
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