2023 Banking Crisis

[fr33d0m]

come come, so many people talked about it.

state your view here.

It is not big in Bank, however, it is big for start-ups in Silicon Valley.

Expect more news that start-ups failure and more people lose their job in Silicon Valley.

Bad omen for tech workers in the Bay area? layoffs from the big guys and the failure of the small guys...

 

[DevilPlate]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/2...ities-lossesas-was-svb-c4bbcafa?siteid=yhoof2
Many small banks can add up to something big.

 

[DevilPlate]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/svb-fallout-spreads-around-world-154331383.htmlSVB's UK branch is set to close.....what's next?

Startup founders in California’s Bay Area are panicking about access to money and paying employees. Fears of contagion have reached Canada, India and China. In the UK, SVB’s unit is set to be declared insolvent, has already ceased trading and is no longer taking new customers. On Saturday, the leaders of roughly 180 tech companies sent a letter calling on UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to intervene.

“The loss of deposits has the potential to cripple the sector and set the ecosystem back 20 years,” they said in the letter seen by Bloomberg. “Many businesses will be sent into involuntary liquidation overnight.”

This is just the beginning. SVB had branches in China, Denmark, Germany, India, Israel and Sweden, too. Founders are warning that the bank’s failure could wipe out startups around the world without government intervention. SVB’s joint venture in China, SPD Silicon Valley Bank Co., was seeking to calm local clients overnight by reminding them that operations have been independent and stable.

 

[limster]

I'm hoping that fear will spread and XLF will drop 10%. Getting ready some money to punt.

Govt will announce that it is not a crisis of fundamentals as the economy is fundamentally sound.

Therefore, since it is purely a crisis of confidence, Govt will announce that it will be acting as a backstop and XLF will rally.

Yellen was in the Fed with helicopter Ben, she knows the playbook.

 

[boringLife-]

I think a big bank like jpm will probably take over everything and assure 100 cents on the dollar to all depositors

 

[DevilPlate]

Everyday is a learning curve in the financial market

 

[jim889]

if close one bank then open another lor

 

[DevilPlate]

I'm hoping that fear will spread and XLF will drop 10%. Getting ready some money to punt.

Im looking at $25-27 level which is another 20-25% drop

Bank stocks very cyclical in nature....without this saga, I already expects XLF to fall about 10-20%

 

[fr33d0m]

I'm hoping that fear will spread and XLF will drop 10%. Getting ready some money to punt.

Govt will announce that it is not a crisis of fundamentals as the economy is fundamentally sound.

Therefore, since it is purely a crisis of confidence, Govt will announce that it will be acting as a backstop and XLF will rally.

Yellen was in the Fed with helicopter Ben, she knows the playbook.

LOL. XLF is large financial, which do little in security lending or startups financing.

 

[BBCWatcher]

There are a couple other banks that might already be experiencing bank runs or walks. I think that’s about it, though.

 

[BBCWatcher]

LOL. XLF is large financial, which do little in security lending or startups financing.

It’s also a U.S. domiciled fund. If you want to gamble I’d look at the London-traded equivalent which opens for trading hours earlier on Monday. Or even see if there’s some early fun available in the Asian markets.

Take a look at symbols IAT or KRE if you want to gamble on U.S. regional bank stocks specifically. They’re U.S. traded, but that’s a narrower play than the whole banking sector. I don’t think there’s any London-listed equivalent.

 

[konan~]

Gregory invested too much in treasury bonds. Hope there are no other banks in the same situation and unable to hold the bonds to maturity.

 

[CaptainWu]

I hold both XLF and IAI. IAI drops much more than XLF though SIVB not a component stock it but due to Charles Schwab .....

 

[BBCWatcher]

Gregory invested too much in treasury bonds.

TIPS would’ve worked. Another problem is that they have a lot of uninsured deposits. The depositors with accounts at or below US$250K don’t flee, but they don’t have that relatively stable account base.

SVB’s CEO also successfully lobbied the Trump Administration to loosen regulations so that they wouldn’t have to conduct or pass the stress tests bigger banks are subject to. Or in other words they (the regional banks, including SVB) demanded second class status from the regulators, and they got it. Well guess what? Bigger depositors don’t want to do much business with second class banks when times get tougher. So congratulations to those “brilliant” regional bank CEOs: they probably just shot off their own feet. It wouldn’t shock me to see another couple regional banks totter, and I could name a couple on my “watch list” but won’t.

N.B. If you have US$250K or less per insurable account title (example: joint and individual are insured separately, each with US$250K of coverage) in a FDIC or NCUA insured U.S. financial institution’s ordinary account then you have nothing to worry about.

 

[BBCWatcher]

I hold both XLF and IAI. IAI drops much more than XLF though SIVB not a component stock it but due to Charles Schwab .....

Schwab is a terrific company. I’m not sure why stock investors hammered Schwab’s stock on Friday. If I were a speculator (I’m not) I’d be looking to scoop up some cheap financial stocks at some point, probably soon.

Wells Fargo‘s stock didn’t get hammered. It actually gained a little on Friday. That makes more sense to me. Wells Fargo is the biggest West Coast bank (and a truly national bank), a Tier 1 bank in a strong financial position. So if (when?) there’s a ”flight to quality” they should do great.

 

[CaptainWu]

Schwab is a terrific company. I’m not sure why stock investors hammered Schwab’s stock on Friday. If I were a speculator (I’m not) I’d be looking to scoop up some cheap financial stocks at some point, probably soon.

Wells Fargo‘s stock didn’t get hammered. It actually gained a little on Friday. That makes more sense to me. Wells Fargo is the biggest West Coast bank (and a truly national bank), a Tier 1 bank in a strong financial position. So if (when?) there’s a ”flight to quality” they should do great.

I certainly don't want Schwab to fail...look at the news it was due to bank deposit rate dropping and net interest margin comes under pressure. In any case it should be much well position comparing to SIVB, but surprisely another bigger hit Friday so not sure its really panic sell or something more serious is going on...

 

[testingabc]

Rumours have that First Republic Bank will be the next

 

[sohguanh]

Rumours have that First Republic Bank will be the next

Will it affect non-US banks are my main concern. I have monies in BOC ICBC Maybank CIMB RHB SCB all foreign banks.

 

[BBCWatcher]

I certainly don't want Schwab to fail...look at the news it was due to bank deposit rate dropping and net interest margin comes under pressure. In any case it should be much well position comparing to SIVB, but surprisely another bigger hit Friday so not sure its really panic sell or something more serious is going on...

But Schwab takes few deposits on their banking side. Their bank affiliate is tiny. They do have customer cash on the sidelines in brokerage accounts, but they have good retail (small trader) customers with a lot of sub-$250K cash positions.

I still think if I were gambling (I’m not) then Schwab’s lower price is looking interesting.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Will it affect non-US banks are my main concern. I have monies in BOC ICBC Maybank CIMB RHB SCB all foreign banks.

You’re fine up to SDIC limits (S$75K per bank per person, Singapore dollars only).