2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[rider83]

Sell in May and Go Away

How strong will it be for this year?

 

[ispuser]

I am buying TLT to hedge against interest. If they cut interest, TLT fly. As of now, still increasing interest

Is TLT ETF subjected to dividend withholding tax?

 

[churnmaster]

Is TLT ETF subjected to dividend withholding tax?

Yes. However, you have a UCITS version to minimize the WHT.

 

[edwardZ]

april feels like a wasted month, boring and ranging all weeks long . i guess the dealers are all just setting up for their major move.

 

[MrHighlander]

China-HK ETFs keep dropping

Damn it

 

[limster]

China-HK ETFs keep dropping

Damn it

It always seems to drop after the FSMOne RSP date

 

[churnmaster]

China-HK ETFs keep dropping

Damn it

I don’t mind if it drops as long as it subsequently rallies allowing us to get out and realize the profit.

 

[elvintay07]

Is TLT ETF subjected to dividend withholding tax?

I don’t intend to hold for long. I am betting against interest. If US cuts interest, probably TLT will fly then I just sell

 

[aurvandil]

The attempt by the S&P to break 4200 has failed and market is making a nice rounded top. We now appear headed to test the other side of the range. 3950 is the immediate target with 3840 as the next level if market gets through that.

In this market regime, previously popular strategies like dca, btfd and hodl are not giving very good returns.

 

[edwardZ]

The attempt by the S&P to break 4200 and market is making a nice rounded top. We now appear headed to test the other side of the range. 3950 is the immediate target with 3840 as the next level if market gets through that.

In this market regime, previously popular strategies like dca, btfd and hodl are not giving very good returns.

agreed, slightly below 4000 and around 3860 are next 2 immediate zones. Retail investors in categories like Buy-the-dip, fomo-too-much-money, got-ROI-kpi-to-fulfill, DCA fanatics etc along with day-traders will be looking at them. though i'm still waiting for a bigger dump to build more long-term positions

 

[DevilPlate]

agreed, slightly below 4000 and around 3860 are next 2 immediate zones. Retail investors in categories like Buy-the-dip, fomo-too-much-money, got-ROI-kpi-to-fulfill, DCA fanatics etc along with day-traders will be looking at them. though i'm still waiting for a bigger dump to build more long-term positions

Patience is key, we might see big drop next year when everyone say huat ar simi recession i told yall to buy!

 

[stanlawj]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/710680/global-stock-markets-by-country/
This certainly looks like a US stock market bubble. Of course, before the bubble can burst, the momentum will make lots of money for ppl. Just remember to cash out.

No. 1: USA 58%
No. 2: Japan 6%

 

[zeroX26]

agreed, slightly below 4000 and around 3860 are next 2 immediate zones. Retail investors in categories like Buy-the-dip, fomo-too-much-money, got-ROI-kpi-to-fulfill, DCA fanatics etc along with day-traders will be looking at them. though i'm still waiting for a bigger dump to build more long-term positions

What's the entry level you are looking at?

 

[edwardZ]

What's the entry level you are looking at?

most immediate and recently formed one is around 3620, last Oct lows. If broken then other zones at around 3250-3330-ish, 3000-3080-ish, 2800-2900-ish, 2450-2550-ish and pandemic low 2250. Don't really have exact entry level since it depends on where price will stall in the various zones and no one knows how far it will drop (if any).

 

[edwardZ]

indices grind all the way back up to their resistance yesterday and today is Core PCE Price Index data release

 

[aurvandil]

V shape recovery which ended the push down. Market back in balance with good chance for yet another attempt by the S&P to break the 4200

 

[limster]

Looks like 4200 this week. While rangebound, the bottom of the range will slowly move upwards, previously 4000-4200, maybe next step 4050-4250

 

[aurvandil]

Looks like 4200 this week. While rangebound, the bottom of the range will slowly move upwards, previously 4000-4200, maybe next step 4050-4250

My expectation is that when the 4200 breaks, we are likely to see active price disocovery upwards. The next key level above is 4350 and there is high chance for this to be tested before any pullback.

 

[stanlawj]

RBA just hiked Australia's interest rate by a surprise +25bps to 3.85%.
More tightening. Aussie stock index down.

 

[limster]

I will do my regular DCA of S&P500 for May once it reaches 4050.