2024 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[TehSi99]

Just realised seems cannot use SRS to buy IWDA.

 

[revhappy]

Just realised seems cannot use SRS to buy IWDA.

You can use Endowus and buy global index funds although it is a bit expensive, there is 0.3% fee.

 

[revhappy]

I just finalized my plan for next year. I have hit the sweet spot of 60/40 portfolio allocation. For 2024, I deploy my surplus savings into equities. So my fixed income will not deplete anymore. I will take whatever growth fixed income market gives. Equities will grow by whatever the markets return + new salary savings. I expect moderately positive markets like single digit returns, I should end next year at 62/38. Let's see, how it goes. How are you guys positioning?

 

[elvintay07]

Showhand equities in 2024. I cap by bonds at 20%

 

[yslvlys]

Showhand equities in 2024. I cap by bonds at 20%

Show hand means buy in Jan 2024 lum sum or see drop then buy?

 

[elvintay07]

Show hand means buy in Jan 2024 lum sum or see drop then buy?

Whack in tranches.

 

[stanlawj]

Time to buy USD, ringgit, etc now?

SGD is at its strongest rate now vs all other currencies in the world, and MAS is going to stop the SGD appreciation as inflation has eased.

Jan: no change in current policy
Beyond Jan: analysts are mixed (i.e. policy change likely).

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/si...ry-review-amid-easing-headline-core-inflation

Economists expect MAS to stand pat in January review amid easing headline, core inflation​

 

[elvintay07]

Time to buy USD, ringgit, etc now?

SGD is at its strongest rate now vs all other currencies in the world, and MAS is going to stop the SGD appreciation as inflation has eased.

Jan: no change in current policy
Beyond Jan: analysts are mixed.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/si...ry-review-amid-easing-headline-core-inflation

Economists expect MAS to stand pat in January review amid easing headline, core inflation​

Jialat. I already got a lot of US$. Change ringgit to do what? Got JB eat?

 

[stanlawj]

Jialat. I already got a lot of US$. Change ringgit to do what? Got JB eat?

Travel, eat, Genting Highlands...

 

[sohguanh]

For me due to unforseen circumstances cash is needed for some emergency. If I am single feed myself no such headache. You got some monies all your family members both own and spouse side all think of ways to borrow etc and some you cannot siam don't help out becuz they attack your weakness by going another route E.g my mother ORDER ME !!! I wish age 55 come soon no need work and got valid excuse to reject all their requests and also some elder to stop ordering me around.

 

[zeroX26]

For me due to unforseen circumstances cash is needed for some emergency. If I am single feed myself no such headache. You got some monies all your family members both own and spouse side all think of ways to borrow etc and some you cannot siam don't help out becuz they attack your weakness by going another route E.g my mother ORDER ME !!! I wish age 55 come soon no need work and got valid excuse to reject all their requests and also some elder to stop ordering me around.

You can always draw strong boundaries and ask your mother go fly kite leh...

 

[edwardZ]

Time to buy USD, ringgit, etc now?

SGD is at its strongest rate now vs all other currencies in the world, and MAS is going to stop the SGD appreciation as inflation has eased.

Jan: no change in current policy
Beyond Jan: analysts are mixed.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/si...ry-review-amid-easing-headline-core-inflation

Economists expect MAS to stand pat in January review amid easing headline, core inflation​

same here, i'm looking at hoarding up USD again, but waiting for a possible 1 more wave down as there is a lower juicy zone to hit (based on the chart DXY Daily timeframe). For ringgit, unknown lol probably short-term retrace is inevitable but long-term wise there isn't any solid fundamental shifts in their economic policies etc to warrant more ringgit demand.

 

[elvintay07]

For me due to unforseen circumstances cash is needed for some emergency. If I am single feed myself no such headache. You got some monies all your family members both own and spouse side all think of ways to borrow etc and some you cannot siam don't help out becuz they attack your weakness by going another route E.g my mother ORDER ME !!! I wish age 55 come soon no need work and got valid excuse to reject all their requests and also some elder to stop ordering me around.

Order you do what? Marry your bui bui cousin?

 

[TehSi99]

I just finalized my plan for next year. I have hit the sweet spot of 60/40 portfolio allocation. For 2024, I deploy my surplus savings into equities. So my fixed income will not deplete anymore. I will take whatever growth fixed income market gives. Equities will grow by whatever the markets return + new salary savings. I expect moderately positive markets like single digit returns, I should end next year at 62/38. Let's see, how it goes. How are you guys positioning?

I was like 50-50 for some time and stubbornly stick to it as T-bills interest rates were good. By some chance, I got to recognise few good fundamentals stocks (mostly outside Singapore) and allocated some money to them from the bonds.
Now my allocation is 40-60. Bonds only 40%. Think will stick so for now. New savings in 2024 will pour into stocks and 40-60 will slowly shift towards more into stocks.

 

[d5dude]

Sold some stocks yesterday to get back to my target allocation since stocks are up big this year, currently at 57/43.

 

[revhappy]

Sold some stocks yesterday to get back to my target allocation since stocks are up big this year, currently at 57/43.

If you are still earning, then you will have new monies to allocate, hence I don't see the point of selling stocks to rebalance.

 

[d5dude]

If you are still earning, then you will have new monies to allocate, hence I don't see the point of selling stocks to rebalance.

My target allocation follows a glide path, stocks will increasingly get smaller as a % of my portfolio as I age, regardless of income.

 

[revhappy]

My target allocation follows a glide path, stocks will increasingly get smaller as a % of my portfolio as I age, regardless of income.

Mine is rising equity glide path, which is a bit unconventional. But my logic is as your networth increases, your risk taking ability also increases. Also since my plan is early retirement; I am following the guidelines from ERN which says for corpus to last long retirement durations you need relatively high equity allocation.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017...e-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/

 

[d5dude]

Mine is rising equity glide path, which is a bit unconventional. But my logic is as your networth increases, your risk taking ability also increases. Also since my plan is early retirement; I am following the guidelines from ERN which says for corpus to last long retirement durations you need relatively high equity allocation.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017...e-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/

Whatever works for you is good.

I think what is most important thing for me is to be able to sleep soundly at night and not worry when markets take a big hit like it did in 2022. My goal is for my fixed income portfolio to replace the bulk of my current income when I retire, I think I will likely end up with over 50% of my portfolio in bonds when I retire, that is assuming bond yields dun run all the way back down to near zero again.

 

[TehSi99]

Sold some stocks yesterday to get back to my target allocation since stocks are up big this year, currently at 57/43.

Hope you are selling for good reasons.
Always keep the winners and sell the losers.