4 MYR = 1 SGD coming

stanlawj

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Their only consolation is cars are relatively affordable (no crazy COE prices!) and their petrol are govt subsidized. But their everyday food and spending is increasing much faster than Spore. So only way for Msia young generation is to go outside earn say SGD and later convert back MYR to spend. In their Msia investors forum, they invest in US market shares becuz I am also quite sure years later they sell their USD holdings convert back to MYR sure laughing to the bank as MYR is a forever depreciating currency basically hopeless. Most of those Msians are on IBKR and they so cham imagine they need to save up enough MYR to do a one shot conversion to USD as IBKR impose a minimum to change.
I think my JB relatives are holding lots of SGD.
 

inmyopinion

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stanlawj

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Path to 3.6 secured.
The politicians need to print lots ringgit through the fractional reserve banking system i.e. bank lending. Dedollarisation won't solve the ringgit weakness if Msians continue to be fall behind in manufacturing value chain. Commodity exports (oil & gas, palm oil) won't be enough if the population continues to consume more expensive high value imports.

Malaysia PM Dismisses Calls to Boost Ringgit Via Key Rate Hike​

  • Anwar says economic indicators show no need to raise rates
  • The PM sees de-dollarization as solution to defend ringgit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-to-boost-ringgit-via-key-rate-hike#xj4y7vzkg
 

stanlawj

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Do you think any of these Govt policies will increase the demand for ringgit and demand for Msian assets?
Unlikely. What is more likely is that even residents in Msia will try to convert excess ringgit into foreign currency including USD to earn the high interest or hold SGD to follow the trend in SGD strength. That's what i would do if I were a Msian. After all, will PH+BN last another 5-year term, or will the policies just die a stillbirth by end of the current 5-year term?


https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/...nge-rate-vital-absorbing-external-shocks-says

A flexible ringgit exchange rate plays an important role in absorbing external shocks and reducing the impact on the domestic economy in the current uncertain global market conditions, said Deputy Finance Minister II Steven Sim Chee Keong.

He said Bank Negara Malaysia will continue to manage both external and domestic risks while remaining ready to utilise its policy instruments to ensure more orderly market conditions.

"Risks resulting from sudden ringgit exchange rate changes versus the US dollar can also be reduced through hedging instruments, prudent external borrowings and a high in-depth money market.

"All these factors are expected to ensure business needs are effectively met while costs and foreign currency requirements are managed efficiently," he said.

Sim was responding to a supplementary question from Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal (Warisan-Semporna), who asked about the government's measures to ensure continuous demand for the ringgit.

The deputy minister said that in the long run, the ringgit's value can be strengthened through policies that can increase economic development and Malaysia's competitiveness.

"For example, the government is transforming the country's economy guided by the Madani Economic framework via the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR), the New Industrial Master Plan 2030 (NIMP 2030) and the 12th Malaysia Plan (12MP) Mid-Term Review," he said.

Sim said the government would also increase agility in terms of government services and restructure the economy to restore confidence in the ringgit and the country's economy.

He added that the government's commitment towards strengthening fiscal sustainability by tabling the Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility Bill 2023 is expected to increase investor confidence towards Malaysia's economy while reinforcing the ringgit's value. - Bernama


https://www.nst.com.my/business/202...ess-reflects-malaysias-economic-vulnerability

At its apex in the 1990s, Malaysia had a fiscal surplus but it is now forecast to record a fiscal deficit of around 5 per cent in 2023.

This deficit has an adverse impact on Malaysia's debt servicing payments-to-revenue ratio, which has trended higher since 2012's 9.4 per cent and breached the self-imposed threshold of 15 per cent during the height of the pandemic in 2020-2021.

This points to structural issues in which revenue was only sufficient to cover operating expenditure, encroaching on the use of debt to fund development expenditure.
 
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stanlawj

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Here's more fundamental economics that underpin the inevitable devaluation of ringgit: the blackhole of insufficient retirement savings.
Solution from Govt? Grants, subsidies (Transfer payments). Transfer payments do not solve the underlying problem. Although the matching grant requires voluntary contribution from work, the problem is what kind of work will enable those affected to earn enough to retire?

These transfer payments measures are a favorite of Msian politicians to solve any economic problem, and even election/voting problems. The ringgit will be printed* to pay for all these handouts that feed into a blackhole that can not be filled (*printed through bank lending, encouraged by lowered interest rate, OPR currently still stuck at 3% vs US 5.25%).

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/...ntributors-under-55-have-less-rm10000-savings

6.3 million EPF contributors under 55 have less than RM10,000 in savings​

[Note population = 33M. 6.3M = 18%].
KUALA LUMPUR: The issue of insufficient savings in the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) is at a serious level, with 6.3 million members under the age of 55, or 48 per cent, having less than RM10,000 in their accounts as of September 30, said the Ministry of Finance.

In a written reply posted on the Parliament website today, the ministry said the figure rose from 4.7 million members (37 per cent) recorded in April 2020, before the introduction of Covid-19-related special withdrawals.

"With savings less than RM10,000, members are expected to have a retirement income of less than RM42 per month for a period of 20 years.
The ministry said the issue is taken seriously, especially considering that the country is facing a rapidly ageing population which is expected to have a significant impact on the nation and people in terms of the economy, productivity, social welfare, quality of life and health.

The government announced in 2024 Budget an increase in the matching grant limit under the i-Saraan programme from RM300 to RM500 per year, subject to a maximum limit of RM5,000 for each eligible individual throughout their lifetime. -- Bernama
 
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andyhtc

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If Malaysia is really ageing fast, it could face the problems in 10+ years that Singapore is struggling with now.

Their healthcare and daily necessities subsidies will drain their national wealth fast.

If that happens, their economy and currency will be weakened.
 

sohguanh

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If Malaysia is really ageing fast, it could face the problems in 10+ years that Singapore is struggling with now.

Their healthcare and daily necessities subsidies will drain their national wealth fast.

If that happens, their economy and currency will be weakened.
As a developing nation they can go "borrow" monies from World Bank. Sometimes it pays to be a developing nation than developed like Spore is. As developing you got privileges. Same in Spore you poor can go for govt assistance monies handout. Got monies no handout.
 

stanlawj

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More facts from the ground:
1) Addiction to subsidies - the biggest blackhole in the economy
(transfer payments in econs don't result in any economic return).
2) PM Anwar is not educating the ppl about the need to remove the subsidies
3) Hence the next election may see ppl choose the worse party that will deepen the blackhole of subsidies.

Tough choices need to be made by the ppl, and the politician need the poor to make sacrifices, while the rich to step in to help the poor. Unfortunately, we have the poor (bumis) facing the problems, the rich (bumis) enjoying life, and well... that's capitalism as we call it. It is always easier to blame other religions, race, and even the USD dollar for their own problems.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/s...-to-50-per-cent-amid-economic-concerns-survey

Anwar's approval drops to 50% over state of economy: Survey

Azril Annuar
Malaysia Correspondent


KUALA LUMPUR - one year after coming to power, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's approval rating has fallen to 50 per cent, due largely to Malaysians' unhappiness over the state of the economy. His approval stood at 68 per cent in December 2022, shortly after he took office in late November, said independent pollster Merdeka Center in a survey whose findings were released on Nov 22.

Nearly eight in 10 of the 1,220 survey respondents said the economy is the top issue facing Malaysians today, as it has affected livelihoods. The approval rating of Mr Anwar's government — consisting of his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, former rival Barisan Nasional and several other smaller outfits — has also dropped, from 54 per cent in December 2022 to 41 per cent in the latest survey, which was carried out from Oct 4 to Oct 24.

'The dissatisfaction towards the federal government presently stands at 48 per cent," Merdeka Center said. It also found that only 31 per cent of the respondents think that the country is heading in the right direction, while 60 per cent believe it is going in the wrong direction due to economic issues, political instability and poor administration. The survey reflects voters' expectations that Mr Anwar's government would "regenerate economic growth as well as address long-standing anxiety over inflation and tepid wage growth".

Other issues include "the form and substance of potential subsidies' withdrawal, new taxation as well as revamp in the cash transfers programme", said Merdeka Center. Malaysia subsidises petrol, cooking oil and rice among other items, but higher commodity prices have driven the government's subsidy expenses to record levels. The government also provides cash handouts to the bottom 40 per cent economic group.

Any changes to the subsidies or the cash handouts will become a cause of concern for the lower income group. The survey found that economic concern is highest among Muslim bumiputera (84.1 per cent), followed by Indians (81.2 per cent), Malays (81.1 per cent), non-Muslim bumiputera (79.5 per cent) and Chinese (69.3 per cent). Bumiputera means "sons of the soil".

Analyst Oh Ei Sun told The Straits Times that Mr Anwar faces difficulties in satisfying the majority of the Malays, seeing that the country's largest ethnic group is based in rural areas that are opposition Parti Islam Se-Malaysia's strongholds.

"For political mileage, he needs to focus on rural Malay areas, but it can be a futile effort as these are diehard PAS supporters. To create jobs there, he needs to build up businesses, which is a difficult proposition in rural areas," said Dr Oh, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia. The analyst added that Mr Anwar needs to grow the economy by attracting foreign direct investments and retaining local capital.

'This would require presenting the country as business-friendly instead of being an ideologically-driven nation, especially in terms of the government's attitude."

Mr Adib Zalkapli, client services director of strategic advisory firm BowerGroupAsia, said Mr Anwar's drop in popularity would not affect his government's stability, due to strong support from the MPs. 'The decline perhaps suggests that the honeymoon period is over, and the government needs to deliver throughout the second year of the administration," he added.

In his trips overseas, Mr Anwar has been courting multinationals to invest in Malaysia. At the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit in San Francisco, he met representatives from tech giants such as Google, Microsoft and TikTok, and voiced his hope on Facebook that the meetings would bear fruit.

azaril@sph.com.sg
 
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stanlawj

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Time to talk about: The blackhole of pension obligations (an extension of the blackhole of insufficient retirement savings subsidies).

The vast MPs and civil servants apparatus feed on the govt and this may end up being parasitic if the majority are corrupt and underperform. Ex-MPs can reap millions as pensions for past services.

The news of Syed Saddiq's conviction with rotan, while Zahid escapes scot-free, is not a coincidence. Syed Saddiq dared to question the huge lifetime pensions that the MPs stand to gain from the Malaysian govt, and thus set himself against the rest of the ruling elite class.

This blackhole is already well-known and well-described in the following news article:

https://www.sinarharian.com.my/article/637150/khas/pendapat/pastikan-kemampanan-skim-pencen

Google translation
MALAYSIA is expected to become an old country by 2030, with 15 percent of the population aged 60 and over.

This poses demographic challenges as well as investment challenges for Malaysia's retirement savings landscape to fund the continued adoption of the old days.

The pension system took RM30.5 billion or 8 per cent of this year's federal budget of RM389 billion, an increase of RM3 billion (+11% !!) over the 2021 budget and it is predicted that pension payments will hover around RM46 billion by 2030.

According to Professor yes Kim Leng from Sunway University, the country may face a fiscal gap in the near future if nothing is done now.

Meanwhile, Shankaran Nambiar from the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) said the high management expenditure of the annual budget was largely due to the number of civil servants employed.

The sustainability of the Public Service Pension Scheme is a major issue as the Malaysian government is faced with the dilemma of competition for the use of public funds for other uses, especially development while supporting pension schemes for civil servants This is in line with the Madani Economic Policy which is to restructure the economy to the level of Malaysia as the leader of the Asian economy. Madani's economic policy of trying to empower the people is as a platform to lift the rank and dignity of this country and become a vision for us to build a better Malaysia for us and our children. However, we cannot assess the need to change this public retirement scheme from a financial perspective alone. The value of humanity in Madani's ecoconomic base should be cultivated in that assessment.

Restructuring the pension scheme is not easy as the government will risk 'offending' 1.7 million voters (a million civil servants and 700,000 pensioners), a group generally seen as a 'vote bank' to the ruling government.

The rights of government pensioners are also protected by the Federal Constitution, which states that the government cannot compromise pension schemes awarded to civil servants.


ex-MPs and ex-assemblymen fight back against any adjustment of their pension!
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/c...isagrees-with-syed-saddiq-over-pension-issue/

PETALING JAYA: The Council of Former Elected Representatives (Mubarak) has opposed Muda’s call to scrap pensions for elected representatives.

Its president, Aziz Abd Rahman, said elected representatives deserve a pension as they serve the public round the clock.

He said the practice is in line with that of governments around the world which have privileges committees to determine rewards for elected representatives.

Aziz, a former Mentakab and Bera assemblyman, said some people are jealous of the assemblymen as they think it is unfair for them to be eligible for a pension despite their fewer years of service, while civil servants have to work much longer to enjoy the benefit.

He said the word “pension” is a misnomer, which has led some people to make a direct comparison between the assemblymen and civil servants.

“I prefer to call it a ‘reward’ for their service as elected representatives”, the former Pahang deputy menteri besar told FMT, urging authorities to come out with a different term to avoid comparison with civil servants.

He said young politicians like Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman should not mix up the civil servants and elected representatives when it comes to matters involving pension, as the two have different work aspects.

Former Selising assemblyman Zulkifle Ali also defended the right of elected representatives to receive pension as they work round the clock to serve the people.

The Umno leader said the majority of the assemblymen not only have not enough rest, but also spend a sizeable portion of their salaries and allowances to help their constituents.

On Thursday, Syed Saddiq described elected representatives who receive a pension after serving a mere two or three years as an injustice as others would have to work for decades to be eligible for it.

He called for pensions to be scrapped for incoming assemblymen, menteris besar and state executive councillors, to ensure those who ran for election were not driven by power, position, or pension assurances.

Former Bandar Hilir assemblyman Tey Kok Kiew said Syed Saddiq’s reasoning was wrong and unfair. He said many assemblymen and MPs are “full-time” politicians and do not have other jobs or sources of income.
 
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stanlawj

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Cyclical factor affecting MYR strength: Severe export weakness due to manufactured goods.
This weakness is quite related to China's economic/property weakness now.
But once China recovers a little, the export weakness stop, providing some temporary support for MYR in mid-2024 possibly.

2447048.jpg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business...sia-continues-to-register-soft-exports-in-nov

Malaysia recorded negative trade growth in November 2023 with a 2.4% decline in overall trade to RM231.79bil over the same month in 2022.

In a statement, the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (Miti) said exports during the month contracted 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM122.1bil while imports grew 1.7% y-o-y to RM109.69bil.

This resulted in a trade surplus of RM12.41bil for the month, which is the lowest surplus recorded since May 2020.

"Malaysia's performance was in tandem with its key trading partners notably Taiwan, China and Indonesia, which posted negative trade growth in November 2023 and a drop in global imports," said Miti.

Malaysia's manufactured goods, which represents the country's largest export, saw shipments contract 6.7% y-o-y to RM102.38bil as lower shipments were recorded for electrical and electronic (E&E) products, chemicals and chemical products as well as transport equipment.
 

stanlawj

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I continue to collect fundamental analysis to determine future of MYR exchange rate.

Ex-Trade Minister Rafidah Aziz gives her opinion about current M'sian foreign trade.
[Turn on CC for English subtitles]


Current and future pension liabilities as proportion of the budget
[Turn on CC for English subtitles]
 
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stanlawj

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A very comprehensive article about the pension problem.

IMO, the proposed reforms limited to new hires will only slow down the rise in the far future, but not stop the rise in pension obligations in the immediate future (5 to 10 years). The reason is simple: the number of retiring civil servants and politicians under existing pension scheme are still increasing and will be increasing for a long time. So RM4 = SGD1 is inevitable if nothing bad happens to SG.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nat...g-malaysias-ballooning-civil-service-pensions

Malaysia’s ballooning civil service pensions​

 
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sglandscape

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A very comprehensive article about the pension problem.

IMO, the proposed reforms limited to new hires will only slow down the rise in the far future, but not stop the rise in pension obligations in the immediate future (5 to 10 years). The reason is simple: the number of retiring civil servants and politicians under existing pension scheme are still increasing and will be increasing for a long time. So RM4 = SGD1 is inevitable if nothing bad happens to SG.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nat...g-malaysias-ballooning-civil-service-pensions

Malaysia’s ballooning civil service pensions​

The only solution would be to inflate the liabilities away
 

stanlawj

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It doesn't matter.
The problem lies with the mentality of those born before 1970s and educated in the 1980s, i.e. all those aged 50 and older. Just look at the stupidity displayed, and check the age of those ppl especially politicians, both majority and the minority races.

They all need to pass into irrelevance. Which is 80yrs old, i.e. another 30 yrs to go.
(Those who wonder why: look up NEP / DEB, where the seeds of corruption were sown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_New_Economic_Policy)

So my projection is the turnaround for Malaysia will probably only come by AD2050 to 2060. That will coincide with depletion of shallow (=cheap) offshore oil and gas reserves of Malaysia.
 
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andyhtc

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A very comprehensive article about the pension problem.

IMO, the proposed reforms limited to new hires will only slow down the rise in the far future, but not stop the rise in pension obligations in the immediate future (5 to 10 years). The reason is simple: the number of retiring civil servants and politicians under existing pension scheme are still increasing and will be increasing for a long time. So RM4 = SGD1 is inevitable if nothing bad happens to SG.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nat...g-malaysias-ballooning-civil-service-pensions

Malaysia’s ballooning civil service pensions​


This looks like Malaysia is moving towards our CPF model.
 

stanlawj

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For those who wondering when is the best time to change SGD to MYR, the short-term top in SGDMYR is guaranteed if the rate suddenly goes parabolic (eg. June 2023, end of Oct 2022).
So, no, I don't think the short-term top is in yet. Just exchange as much MYR as you need ONLY when you need it,
 
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