Advise on crypto.

[moonraiser]

Thinking of exiting crypto (Bitcoin specifically) and reinvesting into other areas. I am not a investment guru by any means. I just got in at the right time. So I'm "comfortable"

Simple question. Hold, or reinvest?
Want to have a feel of what you guys think.

 

[BBCWatcher]

I suppose the answer chiefly depends on what percentage of your total net worth is held in cryptocurrencies.

 

[moonraiser]

I suppose the answer chiefly depends on what percentage of your total net worth is held in cryptocurrencies.

Please do elaborate. Appreciate your insights.

Either I exit now or exit later. I am not too bothered. It's all profit.

Crypto estimated make up 25% ish? of my total networth. (Top of head calculation). Let's just say the number is very very comfortable.

Edit
I currently hold Bitcoin only
The rest cashed out few years back.

Chiefly I'm interested to see the outlook on crypto from the people in this forum

 

[Okenba]

You mentioned that you are not an investment guru, so can I assume you see yourself as lucky to have got in at the right time?
If so, you got lucky. Take your luck and go.
If you struck Toto, would you pile all your winnings back in and buy more Toto?
Maybe you can reserve a small percentage for small toto bets, but def not dedicate a large percentage to buying more toto.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Please do elaborate. Appreciate your insights.

It's a simple enough question. Maybe you answered it....

Crypto estimated make up 25% ish? of my total networth. (Top of head calculation). Let's just say the number is very very comfortable.

OK, so let's suppose the value of your Bitcoin(s) falls by 80% over the next 6 weeks.(*) Would you be OK with a reduction of 20% in your net worth? If yes, and if you'd like to continue taking the side of the bet you're taking, carry on. If no, or if you don't believe that cryptocurrencies will substantially outperform other, less volatile assets, then reduce your exposure to cryptocurrencies now.

(*) Bitcoin fell by 83% in April, 2013 — and it took less than 6 weeks. It fell by 84% in the roughly 12 month period from December, 2017, to December, 2018. And it fell 99% in a single day in June, 2011. On that day Bitcoin started above $32 and fell to one penny. So -80% in 6 weeks wouldn't be unprecedented. It'd only be about the 4th worst crash for Bitcoin in its short history.

 

[BBCWatcher]

What is (are) Bitcoin? If you're holding Bitcoin, what are you actually betting on? Well, you're betting on a highly speculative collectible with zero intrinsic value but with a market value that's mainly related to whatever other people collecting Bitcoin are willing to pay. Mixed with some connection to the price of electricity in some place(s) willing to supply it. (Bitcoin is extremely electricity intensive...and with associated negative implications for the planet.) And with a lot of dependency on regulators' actions, too. Bitcoin is also prone to theft, and defending it against theft raises other risks of loss. It's not like title to a house in Singapore or a stock certificate with more reliable custodians, legal protections, and asset recovery mechanisms. Mere knowledge of a string of numbers means you have possession of Bitcoin. "I've got a secret," unless and until you don't.

I wouldn't bet 25% or even 5% of my net worth on Bitcoin (or cryptocurrencies in general). But it's up to you!

 

[ChaoMonkey]

If we include Bitcoin, it's around 20% of my net worth and I don't plan to sell anytime soon, especially with Halving is around the corner.

I've managed to cash out most of my cryptocurrencies during the last bullrun and when it crashed, I've sold all my alts but kept Bitcoin and some Ethereum

I converted the windfall into traditional assets:- real estates , equities and fixed income. I considered myself FIRE as even if Bitcoin goes to 0, I will still be able to live comfortably with what I have.


Regarding your question, it boils down to how much 'real' assets you got out of cryptocurrencies?

If you don't include Bitcoin, are you still living comfortably? If yes, you can make the decision after the Halving next year or wait for if/when BTC ETF get approved by SEC. That's what I will do.

Just remember our original intent of getting into cryptocurrencies, to make money and better our lives. Don't fall for the HODL mentality or "Fiat is dirty, Bitcoin is future money". Cash in hand is Caipeng with fish and sotong every meal

 

[moonraiser]

You mentioned that you are not an investment guru, so can I assume you see yourself as lucky to have got in at the right time?
If so, you got lucky. Take your luck and go.
If you struck Toto, would you pile all your winnings back in and buy more Toto?
Maybe you can reserve a small percentage for small toto bets, but def not dedicate a large percentage to buying more toto.

Yes. I got into Bitcoin when it was around 100usd. I have a low 3 figures and I have never touch it since then since I haven't had the need to. So yes I consider myself pretty lucky.

Definitely what you are saying is something to think about.

Spoiler

 

[moonraiser]

It's a simple enough question. Maybe you answered it....

OK, so let's suppose the value of your Bitcoin(s) falls by 80% over the next 6 weeks.(*) Would you be OK with a reduction of 20% in your net worth? If yes, and if you'd like to continue taking the side of the bet you're taking, carry on. If no, or if you don't believe that cryptocurrencies will substantially outperform other, less volatile assets, then reduce your exposure to cryptocurrencies now.

(*) Bitcoin fell by 83% in April, 2013 — and it took less than 6 weeks. It fell by 84% in the roughly 12 month period from December, 2017, to December, 2018. And it fell 99% in a single day in June, 2011. On that day Bitcoin started above $32 and fell to one penny. So -80% in 6 weeks wouldn't be unprecedented. It'd only be about the 4th worst crash for Bitcoin in its short history.

If we include Bitcoin, it's around 20% of my net worth and I don't plan to sell anytime soon, especially with Halving is around the corner.

I've managed to cash out most of my cryptocurrencies during the last bullrun and when it crashed, I've sold all my alts but kept Bitcoin and some Ethereum

I converted the windfall into traditional assets:- real estates , equities and fixed income. I considered myself FIRE as even if Bitcoin goes to 0, I will still be able to live comfortably with what I have.


Regarding your question, it boils down to how much 'real' assets you got out of cryptocurrencies?

If you don't include Bitcoin, are you still living comfortably? If yes, you can make the decision after the Halving next year or wait for if/when BTC ETF get approved by SEC. That's what I will do.

Just remember our original intent of getting into cryptocurrencies, to make money and better our lives. Don't fall for the HODL mentality or "Fiat is dirty, Bitcoin is future money". Cash in hand is Caipeng with fish and sotong every meal

Based on the few feedbacks ive gotten here it seems that the outlook on crypto is grim to say the least.

I actually created this thread because I've came across an article cause i'm in one of those crypto chat group in discord and one of them shared an article that stated, summarily, bitcoin could hit 100k usd by year end 2024.by reuters, (whom i considered fairly reputable)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/bitcoin-could-hit-100000-by-end-2024-standard-chartered-says-2023-04-24/#:~:text=Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by end-2024, Standard Chartered says,-By Elizabeth Howcroft&text=LONDON, April 24 (Reuters),"crypto winter" is over.

I asked my investment guy about his opinion. He gave a heartily laughed, and say "well current prediction method when it comes to crypto are questionable at best". It seems like many share his view based on whatever feedback i got from here and some other sites.

I posted similar question on hardwarezone most populous section -edmw
But no one replied. Which is weird since i recalled crypto related topics was all the rage a short few years back. Then suddenly, nothing

The crypto group im in, sorry to say, but many of them behave like they are in a cult. They absolutely refused to hear bad things about crypto, and talking about anything negative gets them coming at you real fast

 

[BBCWatcher]

Based on the few feedbacks ive gotten here it seems that the outlook on crypto is grim to say the least.

Who knows? Oversimplifying only slightly it's whatever other people want to pay for a specific variety of collectible tulips. There really aren't too many economic fundamentals to the value of Bitcoin. It's not even like gold, something that's physical and has industrial uses. Bitcoin is literally a set of digits, managed and computed using a large amount of electricity. It's worth whatever the next person wants to pay for it at any moment.

I guess you could look at the few correlates to Bitcoin to try to make some forecasts. You could try to make predictions about electricity prices in likely mining areas, what various regulators will and won't do, the related utility of Bitcoin for facilitating illegal financial transactions (such as sanctions violations, money laundering, and tax evasion) and the "market" for that, and general wealth trends among individuals likely to buy and sell Bitcoin. But it's difficult to forecast even Apple's business prospects (and thus share price). Forecasting future Bitcoin values has to be even more difficult.

I think one factor that might've helped Bitcoin is the recent collapse of NFTs. It's probably no great surprise that there isn't much demand for the NFTs of digital pictures of apes. People who otherwise would've bought those wacky NFTs might've been more inclined to buy Bitcoin since at least it's the oldest in its general category. But that NFT market collapse is behind us now, so I don't know what happens going forward. I think we need some apes throwing darts at a dartboard to tell us.

 

[moonraiser]

Who knows? Oversimplifying only slightly it's whatever other people want to pay for a specific variety of collectible tulips. There really aren't too many economic fundamentals to the value of Bitcoin. It's not even like gold, something that's physical and has industrial uses. Bitcoin is literally a set of digits, managed and computed using a large amount of electricity. It's worth whatever the next person wants to pay for it at any moment.

I guess you could look at the few correlates to Bitcoin to try to make some forecasts. You could try to make predictions about electricity prices in likely mining areas, what various regulators will and won't do, the related utility of Bitcoin for facilitating illegal financial transactions (such as sanctions violations, money laundering, and tax evasion) and the "market" for that, and general wealth trends among individuals likely to buy and sell Bitcoin. But it's difficult to forecast even Apple's business prospects (and thus share price). Forecasting future Bitcoin values has to be even more difficult.

I think one factor that might've helped Bitcoin is the recent collapse of NFTs. It's probably no great surprise that there isn't much demand for the NFTs of digital pictures of apes. People who otherwise would've bought those wacky NFTs might've been more inclined to buy Bitcoin since at least it's the oldest in its general category. But that NFT market collapse is behind us now, so I don't know what happens going forward. I think we need some apes throwing darts at a dartboard to tell us.

Very very insightful. Definitely something to thing about while I ponder my next step.

Appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts on it

 

[whyliddat]

Yes. I got into Bitcoin when it was around 100usd. I have a low 3 figures and I have never touch it since then since I haven't had the need to. So yes I consider myself pretty lucky.

Definitely what you are saying is something to think about.

Spoiler

I didn't want to give my 2 satoshis but I see your pic of keeping 3 digits btc on crypto com I have to come in. Please get a hardware wallet and get your btc off cex. Not your keys, not your crypto.

I am also of the era where I am pretty much set for life on tradfi. BTC is now an important part of my networth because it is unconsficatable money. You cannot be shut off from it because one day, some power do not like ur political opinions etc. I find it a good medium to store wealth in.

You can do different pockets of it based on your needs too. Example, I have a particular wallet containing a few years expenses worth of btc for my family of 4. Each of us remembers 6 words of the 24-word seed phrase which is easy enough to remember. Even if we are shutoff from tradfi, we still have something of value to use in a foreign country.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/ukrainian-flees-to-poland-with-2000-in-bitcoin-on-usb-drive.html

This story is a good one why it's good to have some especially if you have dependants.

 

[moonraiser]

I didn't want to give my 2 satoshis but I see your pic of keeping 3 digits btc on crypto com I have to come in. Please get a hardware wallet and get your btc off cex. Not your keys, not your crypto.

I am also of the era where I am pretty much set for life on tradfi. BTC is now an important part of my networth because it is unconsficatable money. You cannot be shut off from it because one day, some power do not like ur political opinions etc. I find it a good medium to store wealth in.

You can do different pockets of it based on your needs too. Example, I have a particular wallet containing a few years expenses worth of btc for my family of 4. Each of 6 remembers 6 words of the 24-word seed phrase which is easy enough to remember. Even if we are shutoff from tradfi, we still have something of value to use in a foreign country.

Hi! Thank you for your insights.

Yea I'm quite active on edmw, and my political views can be considered "questionable" by the one currently in charge.

I think you and I are largely the same, deciding to give this new thing when it came out a chance, and got lucky.

Though I never had to cash out or use it at all because I'm doing ok for myself. And I'm not really an ambitious person when it comes to growing my wealth.

I will definitely think hard about what you said. Thanks again

 

[whyliddat]

Hi! Thank you for your insights.

Yea I'm quite active on edmw, and my political views can be considered "questionable" by the one currently in charge.

I think you and I are largely the same, deciding to give this new thing when it came out a chance, and got lucky.

Though I never had to cash out or use it at all because I'm doing ok for myself. And I'm not really an ambitious person when it comes to growing my wealth.

I will definitely think hard about what you said. Thanks again

Np, I didn't get into this to 'try it'. I have been doing humanitarian work since I retired and in many 3rd world countries, people are already using it as what it intended to be: money.

The situation is that these uneducated people live in remote regions cut off from traditional banking. Even if they go to town far far away, these people might not even be able to open bank accounts because of the system.

As such, these people can only work for cash. And the problem with it is many-fold. From their employers giving them the excuse they can't get it from the bank. Many have been scammed given forged notes for all their work. Even if ultimately, they get the real cash, their currency is so worthless that by the time they get it, it's usually worth alot less.

So being around them and seeing them only work for btc and transact in btc, it really opened my eyes. First thing I did was sold all my bank stocks because the technology to replace them is here. Then I bought as many btc as i could. Was not easy then as there wasn't many exchanges. Had to buy them p2p and from miners.

 

[DevilPlate]

Np, I didn't get into this to 'try it'. I have been doing humanitarian work since I retired and in many 3rd world countries, people are already using it as what it intended to be: money.

The situation is that these uneducated people live in remote regions cut off from traditional banking. Even if they go to town far far away, these people might not even be able to open bank accounts because of the system.

As such, these people can only work for cash. And the problem with it is many-fold. From their employers giving them the excuse they can't get it from the bank. Many have been scammed given forged notes for all their work. Even if ultimately, they get the real cash, their currency is so worthless that by the time they get it, it's usually worth alot less.

So being around them and seeing them only work for btc and transact in btc, it really opened my eyes. First thing I did was sold all my bank stocks because the technology to replace them is here. Then I bought as many btc as i could. Was not easy then as there wasn't many exchanges. Had to buy them p2p and from miners.

This is something new.

Can share yr view why this tech is replacing the banks?

 

[whyliddat]

This is something new.

Can share yr view why this tech is replacing the banks?

Banks are a closed ledger that records transactions. Blockchains are open ledgers that record transactions. They do what banks can do and are still programmable to do much more. It's just a matter of adoption.

You can pay McDonald's in El Salvador now with btc, i think there are some videos you can google on it. You can try it for yourself too. Download a Lightning-enabled btc wallet, go reddit or twitter say you are new to btc and lightning and post a QR code of your address. Some people might send you some satoshis for free

 

[moonraiser]

Np, I didn't get into this to 'try it'. I have been doing humanitarian work since I retired and in many 3rd world countries, people are already using it as what it intended to be: money.

The situation is that these uneducated people live in remote regions cut off from traditional banking. Even if they go to town far far away, these people might not even be able to open bank accounts because of the system.

As such, these people can only work for cash. And the problem with it is many-fold. From their employers giving them the excuse they can't get it from the bank. Many have been scammed given forged notes for all their work. Even if ultimately, they get the real cash, their currency is so worthless that by the time they get it, it's usually worth alot less.

So being around them and seeing them only work for btc and transact in btc, it really opened my eyes. First thing I did was sold all my bank stocks because the technology to replace them is here. Then I bought as many btc as i could. Was not easy then as there wasn't many exchanges. Had to buy them p2p and from miners.

Thx for taking time to explain your background.
Hope I did not offend you with my assumption.

Just that in my circle, most started with "try try". Most also exited the platform, some of us still holding.


But it seems you have an extremely fulfilling life able to do meaningful work.

 

[BBCWatcher]

BTC is now an important part of my networth because it is unconsficatable money.

Uh, it's definitely not that.

Just as a random example, in early 2022 the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) seized US$3.6 billion worth of Bitcoin (recovered from the Bitfinex hack). Later that same year the FBI seized another US$3.36 billion (recovered from a theft from Silk Road, which was itself illegal).

Hypothetically, when it comes down to it, you could sit in Changi Prison for as long as you'd like to refuse to surrender your Bitcoin. That's technically a choice, I suppose.

It's actually the opposite of what you think. Many people holding large sums of cryptocurrencies spend a lot of money employing private security teams to try to protect them against kidnapping. It can be a crazy world out there, unfortunately.

 

[ChaoMonkey]

I'm actually quite optimistic with BTC breaking the previous ATH, BTC reached 69K during the last run. 100K is an achievable target, whether by 2024 or later.

Most people got burnt when crypto crashed, the regulars in EDMW crypto thread was trading NFT and Altcoins instead of DCA more BTC. So now the thread is pretty dead, unless crypto craze picked up again.

I used to join those telegram/discord crypto groups but i quitted all of them. The tribalisms are rampant in the cryptocurrency communities, I avoid them and those that called themselves BTC Maxis, it's impossible to have a proper discussion with them.

And yes, please keep your BTC in your own hardware wallets instead of trusting a third party to hold them for you. I split my holding across a few accounts and only have small in CEX for trading shitcoins.

Also, from your above replies, I assume you haven't cash out large amount recently? Do update yourself on the new regulations MAS imposed on the exchanges. It used to be easy to withdraw large amount but past year I kena AML-KYC twice ( StanChart and Gemini )

 

[moonraiser]

opposite of what you think. Many people holding large sums of cryptocurrencies spend a lot of money employing private security teams to try to protect them against kidnapping. It can be a crazy world ou

yea. The group i'm in. Some of them hold 4 figure bitcoins.
It's crazy

I could see with the country they live in. Definitely need armed security