CNA - How China-Japan relations took a sharp downturn after a single remark by PM Takaichi

[testing_testing]

It appears to me she is trying to create a proxy war and drag US into it. It is actually very dangerous.

China have to react strongly.

Japan took Taiwan from China and made it a colony. Then China took back Taiwan after WW2. CCP then defeated KMT in the Chinese civil war. KMT fled to Taiwan but CCP still sees Taiwan as a breakaway province.

Takaichi's statement is a security gaurantee to Taiwan. There is no way China will let any country openly support Taiwan's defence without cost. Even if China is weak, it cannot let Takaichi's remarks encourage Taiwan's independence. Even the US doesn't openly offer security guarantee to Taiwan.

Ya lor... Takaichi is adopting a more dangerous policy to the Taiwan issue than the US, reducing room to avoid a possibility of a global war

US position on Taiwan

• Strategic ambiguity about whether will defend Taiwan or not
• Committed to provide weapons to enable Taiwan "to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability”

What could happen?
- China attack Taiwan
- US send weapons to support Taiwan’s defence

What this means?
Could resemble the Russia–Ukraine war, where:
○ US supply weapons to Ukraine.
○ US did not bomb Russia.
○ Russia did not bomb US.
○ Localised war between Russia & Ukraine only.
○ US can still step in to broker peace, due to having limited involvement beyond arms sales.

Takaichi statement on Taiwan

• could become “a survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
• potentially "existential," implying that Japan could use force under its 2015 security laws which allow for “collective self-defense”

Worst thing that could happen?
○ China bomb Taiwan
○ Japan enters the war to defend Taiwan, viewing it as existential to its own survival
○ Japan bomb China
○ China bomb Japan
○ US has to defend ally Japan, US bomb China too
○ China bomb US too
● China-Taiwan-Japan-US war, in that order of entrance to the war
● World War 3 liao lah?

Room for Talk

Japan Government: any judgment on whether the situation constitutes a ‘survival-threatening situation’ would be made only after taking into account all information

China: sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited, by force if necessary

 

[dt1002]

Ya lor... Takaichi is adopting a more dangerous policy to the Taiwan issue than the US, reducing room to avoid a possibility of a global war

US position on Taiwan

• Strategic ambiguity about whether will defend Taiwan or not
• Committed to provide weapons to enable Taiwan "to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability”

What could happen?
- China attack Taiwan
- US send weapons to support Taiwan’s defence

What this means?
Could resemble the Russia–Ukraine war, where:
○ US supply weapons to Ukraine.
○ US did not bomb Russia.
○ Russia did not bomb US.
○ Localised war between Russia & Ukraine only.
○ US can still step in to broker peace, due to having limited involvement beyond arms sales.

Takaichi statement on Taiwan

• could become “a survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
• potentially "existential," implying that Japan could use force under its 2015 security laws which allow for “collective self-defense”

Worst thing that could happen?
○ China bomb Taiwan
○ Japan enters the war to defend Taiwan, viewing it as existential to its own survival
○ Japan bomb China
○ China bomb Japan
○ US has to defend ally Japan, US bomb China too
○ China bomb US too
● China-Taiwan-Japan-US war, in that order of entrance to the war
● World War 3 liao lah?

Room for Talk

Japan Government: any judgment on whether the situation constitutes a ‘survival-threatening situation’ would be made only after taking into account all information

China: sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited, by force if necessary

After WW2 brutal lesson from imperialism Japan.
Think This round if it happen . China will use nuke straightaway.

 

[testing_testing]

After WW2 brutal lesson from imperialism Japan.
Think This round if it happen . China will use nuke straightaway.

Then US will nuke back. I nuke you, you nuke me, world suffers.

 

[dt1002]

Then US will nuke back. I nuke you, you nuke me, world suffers.

Believe Japan herself will never forgive and forget USA atom bomb.

 

[Redberries]

Ya lor... Takaichi is adopting a more dangerous policy to the Taiwan issue than the US, reducing room to avoid a possibility of a global war

US position on Taiwan

• Strategic ambiguity about whether will defend Taiwan or not
• Committed to provide weapons to enable Taiwan "to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability”

What could happen?
- China attack Taiwan
- US send weapons to support Taiwan’s defence

What this means?
Could resemble the Russia–Ukraine war, where:
○ US supply weapons to Ukraine.
○ US did not bomb Russia.
○ Russia did not bomb US.
○ Localised war between Russia & Ukraine only.
○ US can still step in to broker peace, due to having limited involvement beyond arms sales.

Takaichi statement on Taiwan

• could become “a survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
• potentially "existential," implying that Japan could use force under its 2015 security laws which allow for “collective self-defense”

Worst thing that could happen?
○ China bomb Taiwan
○ Japan enters the war to defend Taiwan, viewing it as existential to its own survival
○ Japan bomb China
○ China bomb Japan
○ US has to defend ally Japan, US bomb China too
○ China bomb US too
● China-Taiwan-Japan-US war, in that order of entrance to the war
● World War 3 liao lah?

Room for Talk

Japan Government: any judgment on whether the situation constitutes a ‘survival-threatening situation’ would be made only after taking into account all information

China: sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited, by force if necessary

U copy from CGPT?

 

[zoossh]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/eas...56?cid=internal_sharetool_iphone_18112025_cna

This lady is really very smart. Her words can really make an impact in many lives. Salute 🫡

She caused a whirlwind in politics, social, economy, tourism, defence, security and etc

She is like the little boy … who say the emperor is not wearing clothes

really audacious

 

[speedsonic]

Then US will nuke back. I nuke you, you nuke me, world suffers.

You think he free bo dai bo Ji to fight here fight there when other countries quarrel none of their biz.

 

[fortunecat]

After WW2 brutal lesson from imperialism Japan.
Think This round if it happen . China will use nuke straightaway.

No one will use nuke straightaway unless they want end of the world. Russia lao kui so long liao also still dun dare to use it

 

[johnsonheng]

Bcos US is far away, by the time the bomb arrive, Taiwan already hang China flag liao, but Japan is beside Taiwan and can really help

there is military base in korea / japan / australia / maybe philippines.

 

[johnsonheng]

Once Taiwan is fixed, next is Japan. Of course Japan will protect Taiwan

korea included,

but usa has base in both countries.

unless china wanna try a pearl harbour redo

 

[testing_testing]

You think he free bo dai bo Ji to fight here fight there when other countries quarrel none of their biz.

If really without US support, then this aunty would be really dumb...

to win from a weaker starting position, you need to quietly build up your strength while pretending to be cordial with your enemy, but she so fast go attract attention

really foolhardy

 

[speedsonic]

he has already said so before.
it is your imagination you’ll want to keep doing so.

 

[kelhot2001]

After WW2 brutal lesson from imperialism Japan.
Think This round if it happen . China will use nuke straightaway.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/confronting-armageddon

This study examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a war that the authors hope will never occur. What creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict? What happens if nuclear weapons are used? To answer these questions, the CSIS-MIT team modified its existing U.S.-China wargame to include nuclear weapons and ran it 15 times.

The greatest pressure for nuclear use came when China teams reached a crisis: their invasion was in danger of a defeat that might threaten Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. To dissuade China from gambling for resurrection—using nuclear weapons to salvage a failing conventional campaign—U.S. diplomacy was much more important than nuclear brinksmanship. Favorable outcomes were possible, but total victory was unachievable. The United States must therefore be prepared to successfully prosecute a high-end conventional war while at the same time providing face saving off-ramps to the adversary. To do otherwise risks a nuclear holocaust, as indeed occurred in three game iterations.

The research for this project was funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Defense. The MIT Wargaming Lab supported the completion of this report and is grateful for generous family foundation support.

Done by US funded by US Defense.

 

[dt1002]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/confronting-armageddon

This study examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a war that the authors hope will never occur. What creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict? What happens if nuclear weapons are used? To answer these questions, the CSIS-MIT team modified its existing U.S.-China wargame to include nuclear weapons and ran it 15 times.

The greatest pressure for nuclear use came when China teams reached a crisis: their invasion was in danger of a defeat that might threaten Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. To dissuade China from gambling for resurrection—using nuclear weapons to salvage a failing conventional campaign—U.S. diplomacy was much more important than nuclear brinksmanship. Favorable outcomes were possible, but total victory was unachievable. The United States must therefore be prepared to successfully prosecute a high-end conventional war while at the same time providing face saving off-ramps to the adversary. To do otherwise risks a nuclear holocaust, as indeed occurred in three game iterations.

The research for this project was funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Defense. The MIT Wargaming Lab supported the completion of this report and is grateful for generous family foundation support.

Done by US funded by US Defense.

USA is the pioneer to use it first.