[CONSOLIDATED] 柯文哲 Ko P Discussion Thread

[TUV2008]

The problem with 美丽岛民调, it is all based on homelines.

Only 53% of the population has home telephones. The ones that stay at home to pickup phones during normal working hours or even before 8 PM are more likely to be elderly.

Refer wiki to for all the research.

https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-sg/2024年中華民國總統選舉民意調查

The ones with 市话+手机 more likely to be accurate.

What is Random Sampling​

Random sampling is a part of the sampling technique in which each sample has an equal probability of being chosen. A sample chosen randomly is meant to be an unbiased representation of the total population. If for some reasons, the sample does not represent the population, the variation is called a sampling error.

i understand how 美丽岛民调 do their survey. but i think based on past record they are quite accurate.

 

[likevegetable]

See HYY and WXY do cooking



He gotch interview KP and Lai before but they no show any cooking

 

[lifezard]

i understand how 美丽岛民调 do their survey. but i think based on past record they are quite accurate.

times are changing. more and more people dun install home phones. there s a limit to how accurate they can get if they ignore mobile phones completely. even if they were lucky and be accurate this time, their accuracy wlll only drop in coming elections if they insist on their current methodology.

 

[TUV2008]

times are changing. more and more people dun install home phones. there s a limit to how accurate they can get if they ignore mobile phones completely. even if they were lucky and be accurate this time, their accuracy wlll only drop in coming elections if they insist on their current methodology.

I am not sure what is their argument to exclude mobile phone? For data integrity?

 

[lifezard]

I am not sure what is their argument to exclude mobile phone? For data integrity?

i ve heard dai li an, the person in charge of meilidao polls explain before, with mobile phones, there is the issue of not being able to group the surveys properly based on regions, there is also the fact people can hold more than 1 mobile phone which raise the possibility of fraud if a certain person or group answer the survey more than once and inflate someone's popularity more than it really is

these are valid reasons, but i feel there should be ways to overcome than rather than just ignoring.

 

[tiredman]

When is their election argh?

 

[lifezard]

can watch this for the methodology meilidao conduct their polls, beats my attempt to explain it:

 

[mgx-alander]

so goot leh military rent from his own bro, ownself rent ownself collect $

 

[TUV2008]

Interesting to watch if you believe in 命理

 

[mgx-alander]

but i dun understand dpp do until like this still got ppl vote with so many scandals

really ish daft like sinkies

 

[TUV2008]

but i dun understand dpp do until like this still got ppl vote with so many scandals

really ish daft like sinkies

let's put in this way, all the parties got scandals, it is only the question of how much kena exposed.

so if I am taiwan voter (or any general taiwan voter), i will just vote for anyone i like and ignore all the noise about scandal since it is always 公说公有理。

 

[tiredman]

but i dun understand dpp do until like this still got ppl vote with so many scandals

really ish daft like sinkies

They are very good at election

And sell their ideas well

And time actually stand on their side

 

[mgx-alander]

i ve heard dai li an, the person in charge of meilidao polls explain before, with mobile phones, there is the issue of not being able to group the surveys properly based on regions, there is also the fact people can hold more than 1 mobile phone which raise the possibility of fraud if a certain person or group answer the survey more than once and inflate someone's popularity more than it really is

these are valid reasons, but i feel there should be ways to overcome than rather than just ignoring.

but in statistics, it becomes not representative of the population, and hence bias.

beauty island polls introduces bias as it is not representative of the population using only landlines.. with the result splash on tv as propaganda may cause KP to lose votes as middle ground voters lose confidence. The use of landlines in polling methods can introduce bias, as it may not adequately capture the opinions of individuals who primarily use mobile phones or other forms of communication. This limited representation can result in skewed results, leading to a misrepresentation of the overall public sentiment.

When these biased poll results are prominently featured on television and other mainstream media as propaganda, it can have significant consequences for political candidates, in this case, potentially harming the reputation and support for the KP party.

 

[mgx-alander]

i think if got people like what wudong say use drone put poison into his fish pond he die 9696

 

[lifezard]

They are very good at election

And sell their ideas well

And time actually stand on their side

they good at selling 芒果干 （word play on 亡国感 .i.e the fear ccp would take over tw and bring an end to the tw we know) it definitely works on a certain group of the population, especially those who long resent anything from the mainland. it also helps to hide their incompetence in internal affairs.

 

[rilakkumajp]

Will Taiwan war

 

[tiredman]

they good at selling 芒果干 （word play on 亡国感 .i.e the fear ccp would take over tw and bring an end to the tw we know) it definitely works on a certain group of the population, especially those who long resent anything from the mainland. it also helps to hide their incompetence in internal affairs.

Not only that but also education

And the key is education also

That's most direct and simple thats why I say time on their side

 

[mgx-alander]

Will Taiwan war

if DPP win and continue to be pro independent, winnie xi go ki siao will war and likely trigger world war as middle east and europe already kena, the next 1 in asia will trigger it and get ready to don ur number 4

lai ish so pro independent that i think xixipee wont be too happy after listening to his speech ytd

 

[menthol28]

Police security post pulling out of Lai's controversial ancestors house

 

[mgx-alander]

new saga!

KPTV DAY 15 什麼！阿北被電視台消音​