[CONSOLIDATED][Russia Edition] General discussion on Ukraine/Russia war

[eclipsemints]

TS run road liao? No more updates alr..

TS is banned a the moment

 

[kelhot2001]

I ish think ruskie will secure eastern Ukraine first. Before anything else.

I am more interested to know what is end game for Ukraine and Russia war

1)Ukraine unoccupied, Russia return home empty hand, sanction continue
2) Ukraine occupied, Russia fight guerilla warfare, Russia sanction continue
3) Peace treaty achieve with 6 objectives. Russian retreat
4) Nato involved into war, Ukraine nuked, standoff again
5)Mutual Assure Destruction for the world

Hopefully not number 5, I think 1) possibility is very low, 2) at the moment seem low too. 3) seem more plausible. 4 and 5 preferably never have to play out

 

[tiobanned]

Faced with legal implications of the war, Russian elites are distancing themselves from Putin​

https://english.nv.ua/nation/faced-...istancing-themselves-from-putin-50228383.html

 

[Entry Level PC]

I am more interested to know what is end game for Ukraine and Russia war

1)Ukraine unoccupied, Russia return home empty hand, sanction continue
2) Ukraine occupied, Russia fight guerilla warfare, Russia sanction continue
3) Peace treaty achieve with 6 objectives. Russian retreat
4) Nato involved into war, Ukraine nuked, standoff again
5)Mutual Assure Destruction for the world

Hopefully not number 5, I think 1) possibility is very low, 2) at the moment seem low too. 3) seem more plausible. 4 and 5 preferably never have to play out

East and South Ukraine becomes Russia Vassal Cities
West Ukraine have to maintain Independence cannot join NATO become Buffer Zone for EU & RU.

It will be impossible to expect Russia to leave after they took over the area.

 

[Spicymc]

Notice then 1989 to 1992 Soviet Union collapsed suddenly.
End up Break into lots of new formed up counties including Ukraine . Fighting btw this new breakup states also very violent and unpredictable during tat time. Guess alot of massacre btw different tribe. and ideology happened. Civil war happen. But Internet is nowhere seen that time.
(What happen then to have cause this sudden breakup and collapse is still a mystery . Soviet Union a powerful nation then.)
The aftermath is no joke.
Chechen also want independent and war fought btw Russia and Chechnya.
But the land of new russia after breakup. still remain the biggest in the world .

Saw this Taiwan channel.by their so call 學者 and ex military general .Their analysis quite rational .
Consider Taiwan big bro close allied.
Especially in early episode they mentioned the strategy Russia applying and planing to take piece by piece especially the south east side . As that time media were mostly focus about kiev when conflict started early.



War is very terrible and violent to the common folks like us .
especially now keep asking nation to choose sides .As it happen during ww1 and ww2 hope someone able to hold peace talk and resolve it peacefully.

 

[Entry Level PC]

https://www.rt.com/business/552630-ruble-gas-europe-impact/
Russia confirm liao.
Unfriendly countries no Rubles no Gas.

What will happen if buyers refuse to pay in rubles?
In this case, they won’t be able to buy Russian gas, since any other currency would not be accepted. This would be a blow for Europe, which gets more than 40% of its gas imports from Russia.

 

[Stroganoff]

why rouble getting stronger?? sanction not working is it?

 

[eclipsemints]

I am more interested to know what is end game for Ukraine and Russia war

1)Ukraine unoccupied, Russia return home empty hand, sanction continue
2) Ukraine occupied, Russia fight guerilla warfare, Russia sanction continue
3) Peace treaty achieve with 6 objectives. Russian retreat
4) Nato involved into war, Ukraine nuked, standoff again
5)Mutual Assure Destruction for the world

Hopefully not number 5, I think 1) possibility is very low, 2) at the moment seem low too. 3) seem more plausible. 4 and 5 preferably never have to play out

My opinion on this will be:

1) sanctions will continue on Russia till there is regime change.

2) No peace treaty or amrstice signed. Protracted conflict in Ukraine with Ukraine not giving up a single piece of land to Russia while Russia will continue to fortify and separate the land they taken.

Unfortunately, Ukraine will be turned into another Afghanistan where West continue to send weapons into Ukraine to fight Russia. The same thing they did during USSR's Invasion of Afghanistan in the 80s

 

[touchring1]

Scenario 2 and 4 are most likely. Ever since the US impose economic war on Russia, followed by massive arms supply, do you think they will accept anything other than surrender?

I am more interested to know what is end game for Ukraine and Russia war

1)Ukraine unoccupied, Russia return home empty hand, sanction continue
2) Ukraine occupied, Russia fight guerilla warfare, Russia sanction continue
3) Peace treaty achieve with 6 objectives. Russian retreat
4) Nato involved into war, Ukraine nuked, standoff again
5)Mutual Assure Destruction for the world

Hopefully not number 5, I think 1) possibility is very low, 2) at the moment seem low too. 3) seem more plausible. 4 and 5 preferably never have to play out

 

[eclipsemints]

https://www.rt.com/business/552630-ruble-gas-europe-impact/
Russia confirm liao.
Unfriendly countries no Rubles no Gas.

What will happen if buyers refuse to pay in rubles?
In this case, they won’t be able to buy Russian gas, since any other currency would not be accepted. This would be a blow for Europe, which gets more than 40% of its gas imports from Russia.

Yes, if Russia cuts gas to Those unfriendly countries, the economic impact will be pretty bad. Stock markets will drop gaolat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60871601"The EU gets 40% of its gas from Russia. If it's to wean itself off that dependency, it needs to get its energy elsewhere.
The question is, where from?
Gas is already piped from Norway - but those pipelines are already operating at maximum capacity. The EU gets relatively little from the North Sea.

New supplies will have to come from further afield, in the form of LNG - gas that's been chilled and liquified.
But there's already intense competition for LNG supplies from countries such as Algeria and Qatar, and that's been pushing up prices.
The 50 billion cubic metres of gas a year from the US - more than double the current quantity - would certainly be welcome.
But it still wouldn't fill the gap if Russian supplies were removed.
There are also question marks over how much gas the US can supply, how quickly it can increase exports to the EU - and how much those shipments will cost.
The EU has been enjoying cheap gas for many years - but now it seems to have accepted that era is coming to an end."

 

[Entry Level PC]

why rouble getting stronger?? sanction not working is it?

Supply and Demand.
More countries buy Rubles = Rubles Value go up
Sanctions is on USD on.
Trade with Russia using Rubles = ByPass Sanctions.

 

[Bodaiboji]

Wah.. within USA also luan if this is true..

Someone sharing article from mint press in forum on Ukraine propaganda

 

[eclipsemints]

Latest situation update:

Western side Info:







Russian Side info:
Sugei is Alive


https://t.me/intelslava/23587

 

[Nevereatrice]

Err, yes, anything short of a complete Ukrainian capitulation, is a loss for Russia. U don't start a major war, just to grab some border towns/cities, and call that a win. Russia manufacturing capabilities has deteriorated throughout the decades, they procure new machines at a snail pace, meaning any combat loss is likely to be permanent.

This is not major war. Airforce not involved navy not involved. urban warfare is not to take over whole of Ukraine and won't be settled so fast.
Sanctions won't hurt in the short term because Russia calculated and prepared for it
Long run already after war, difficult to promise China will not help
Objective is to force Zelensky to submit to Russia's demands since when it is about taking Ukraine
Zelensky knew got pro Russia civilians so used them as human meat shields so Russia cannot carpet bomb
Usa is stirrer behind scene prior this by trying to insert base and missles into Russia's borders, uall still can ask what is it got to do with usa
U all know these stop acting dumb

 

[kelhot2001]

My opinion on this will be:

1) sanctions will continue on Russia till there is regime change.

2) No peace treaty or amrstice signed. Protracted conflict in Ukraine with Ukraine not giving up a single piece of land to Russia while Russia will continue to fortify and separate the land they taken.

Unfortunately, Ukraine will be turned into another Afghanistan where West continue to send weapons into Ukraine to fight Russia. The same thing they did during USSR's Invasion of Afghanistan in the 80s

1)Sanctions seldoms succeed with regime change. Expert argue success rate between 5% to 40% . Else is till Putin pass on( He is already 69). But again will the next leader be another hardliner.

2) mean another long dragging war. Sighzzzz

 

[eclipsemints]

1)Sanctions seldoms succeed with regime change. Expert argue success rate between 5% to 40% . Else is till Putin pass on( He is already 69). But again will the next leader be another hardliner.

2) mean another long dragging war. Sighzzzz

Oh for no.1 What I mean is not sanctions force regime change. Rather is either Putin Die or replaced by some other people. (most likely is he die lah lol).

No,2 yeah. Very sad things are happening this way over there. ordinary Ukrainians dying over a proxy way waged by Both sides.

 

[kelhot2001]

Scenario 2 and 4 are most likely. Ever since the US impose economic war on Russia, followed by massive arms supply, do you think they will accept anything other than surrender?

Probably you are right but to look at 4, it would really escalate to WW3, by then it really depend on what China will do, they cant really be neutral when it really start. IMHO US think China would side Russia and actively trying to pull China over to the western side.

 

[Entry Level PC]

My opinion on this will be:

1) sanctions will continue on Russia till there is regime change.

2) No peace treaty or amrstice signed. Protracted conflict in Ukraine with Ukraine not giving up a single piece of land to Russia while Russia will continue to fortify and separate the land they taken.

Unfortunately, Ukraine will be turned into another Afghanistan where West continue to send weapons into Ukraine to fight Russia. The same thing they did during USSR's Invasion of Afghanistan in the 80s

1)Sanctions seldoms succeed with regime change. Expert argue success rate between 5% to 40% . Else is till Putin pass on( He is already 69). But again will the next leader be another hardliner.

2) mean another long dragging war. Sighzzzz

Russia can always gives NUKES to
1) Iran
2) North Korea
3) Cuba
4) Mexico

 

[randyap]

https://www.rt.com/business/552630-ruble-gas-europe-impact/
Russia confirm liao.
Unfriendly countries no Rubles no Gas.

What will happen if buyers refuse to pay in rubles?
In this case, they won’t be able to buy Russian gas, since any other currency would not be accepted. This would be a blow for Europe, which gets more than 40% of its gas imports from Russia.

Classic self owned.
Sanction Russia, since Russia can't buy their products, get their currency for what. This they have to understand and swallow the bitter pill.

 

[yobyella]

Oh for no.1 What I mean is not sanctions force regime change. Rather is either Putin Die or replaced by some other people. (most likely is he die lah lol).

No,2 yeah. Very sad things are happening this way over there. ordinary Ukrainians dying over a proxy way waged by Both sides.

USSR doesnt exist anymore. So NATO should be disbanded!