Dilemma regarding stocks

[sohguanh]

Haven’t looked at those yet. Actually, my post was about the threat of a major war and whether i should liquidate all or some of my shares and put elsewhere that would be less affected if indeed a big war breaks out.

Ooh I see. Sorry misread. If war happen should worry no food eat as in got monies but cannot buy food as no stock that kind of war happening in Spore? Or like now Ukraine war that kind happen far away?

 

[martin]

Ooh I see. Sorry misread. If war happen should worry no food eat as in got monies but cannot buy food as no stock that kind of war happening in Spore? Or like now Ukraine war that kind happen far away?

The 2 super powers

 

[BBCWatcher]

So you’re predicting a nuclear war between the United States and China? Would you like to add some color to your prediction?

 

[duhduhduh]

Keep doing what you are doing, its all good

 

[martin]

So you’re predicting a nuclear war between the United States and China? Would you like to add some color to your prediction?

No way I am predicting nor like to sensationalise things, but as a ordinary lay person reading the news I am genuinely worried a major conflict may just break out. You like to allay my concerns? Would like it if some can help me see things better than my very lay angled perspective. I am by nature more pessimistic for sure.

 

[s0crates]

No way I am predicting nor like to sensationalise things, but as a ordinary lay person reading the news I am genuinely worried a major conflict may just break out. You like to allay my concerns? Would like it if some can help me see things better than my very lay angled perspective. I am by nature more pessimistic for sure.

I don't understand where this is coming from tbh, especially from an older man like yourself. I have seen so many apocalyptic nees in my past 10 years as a working adult that I am numb to it.

The stock market is the last thing you should worry about if the world is coming to an end.

Go spend some money, fulfil some wishes in your bucket list and then get on with life la. I don't think you have an investment problem at all lol.

 

[Andrew833]

Semi-retired so my funds are for retirement and old age. I am very much risk averse, and have kept my money in bank FD, SSBs, max my cpf, but still have some in stocks, mostly reits, sti etfs and a few blue chips like our 3 banks and ST Eng. Personally, i am rather worried about the global political situation, the threat of a major war seems quite real. Even if not, a big recession looks likely too. What are your thoughts about liquidating equities and put into FDs (because i am really risk averse) or other instruments like gold? I am not very well-versed in matters like this so like to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

If you look back the whole history of equity, every few years will have correction or crash and yet the equity market recover stronger than before. So if you are investing for long term example 5 to 10 years, correction or crash will happen within these period. There are always a lot of fear and noise making investors panic.
If you are unsure or worry for market crash, keep your money in FD, SSB, bond etc.. is the correct way of managing your fear.
When the equity market crash, every markets goes down too, there are inter-related, example oil, gold, stock market etc...but gold rebound the fastest. So during normal time, gold is not moving much.
You have been through 2020 crash, what to worry, just go and read what happen during the 2020 crash and you will understand crash better.

 

[BBCWatcher]

OK, so *if* that's your prediction then obviously it'd be terrible for the whole world. Nobody would be unaffected. Hundreds of millions or even billions would perish.

If you're looking for savings or investment vehicles that'd be appropriate to ride through a nuclear conflict between China and the United States then it's a short list. You'd probably invest in the stuff "preppers" do, frankly. (Examples: freeze dried food, medicine, fuel, and potable water stocks — such as aseptic boxed water — in a couple hidden, secure places.) I wouldn't live in Singapore for these purposes. In this scenario there'd be too many people trying to figure out how not to starve. I believe "prepper" logic is to live some place with few people, low odds of refugees arriving, low odds of direct attack (by whatever the threat is), a defendable place (preppers tend to be well armed), and a post-apocalypse ability to live off the land by the time multi-year food stocks run out and Earth returns to some degree of food production ability after a great dying. That's not Singapore. Maybe rural New Zealand, Argentina, or Chile?

Financial vehicles really don't enter into this, nor do "precious" materials that you can't eat or otherwise practically use. (As far as I can tell "preppers" generally believe gold and silver are useless during the conflict and for years thereafter.) Conceivably the government bonds of reasonably self-sufficient and likely neutral countries could do OK. Swiss government bonds come to mind as a possibility. But even that's a stretch.

 

[0218crawford]

Semi-retired so my funds are for retirement and old age. I am very much risk averse, and have kept my money in bank FD, SSBs, max my cpf, but still have some in stocks, mostly reits, sti etfs and a few blue chips like our 3 banks and ST Eng. Personally, i am rather worried about the global political situation, the threat of a major war seems quite real. Even if not, a big recession looks likely too. What are your thoughts about liquidating equities and put into FDs (because i am really risk averse) or other instruments like gold? I am not very well-versed in matters like this so like to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

Times like this can learn a thing or two from the ostrich. Log into the account again in 12 months time. Should be more green than red.

If one loses sleep over any one particular investment, chances are put too much in already. need to spread the love around:

my case, i am spread across various property types - local, foreign, HDB, private, commercial.
my bonds holdings are spread across 30 different entities
my stock holdings are spread across US, SG, MY and HK markets and companies.
my option trades are mostly hedged
my cash is spread across SGD, USD, HKD and RM in various banks

 

[BBCWatcher]

If one loses sleep over any one particular investment, chances are put too much in already. need to spread the love around:
my case, i am spread across various property types - local, foreign, HDB, private, commercial.
my bonds holdings are spread across 30 different entities
my stock holdings are spread across US, SG, MY and HK markets and companies.
my option trades are mostly hedged
my cash is spread across SGD, USD, HKD and RM in various banks

Yes, portfolio diversification is a well-proven approach to mitigate risks while maintaining decent or better long-term total net returns. However, it doesn't need to be anywhere near as complicated as you describe to diversify well. Let's take these in order...

1. A low cost global REIT index fund accomplishes the same thing with one vehicle. (But see #3 below.)

2. A low cost investment grade bond index fund accomplishes the same thing with one vehicle.

3. A low cost global stock index fund accomplishes the same thing with one vehicle. (And includes some global REITs if you'd like to delete #1. Which I would.)

4. You simply don't have to trade options.

5. Just a pair of bank accounts and a low cost global bond index fund (short-term bonds if you wish) can serve quite well in this role.

If you want to split the above holdings across two high quality custodians, probably one "on shore" and one "off shore," that'll be fine and enough.

 

[0218crawford]

Yes, portfolio diversification is a well-proven approach to mitigate risks while maintaining decent or better long-term total net returns. However, it doesn't need to be anywhere near as complicated as you describe to diversify well. Let's take these in order...

1. A low cost global REIT index fund accomplishes the same thing with one vehicle. (But see #3 below.)

2. A low cost investment grade bond index fund accomplishes the same thing with one vehicle.

3. A low cost global stock index fund accomplishes the same thing with one vehicle. (And includes some global REITs if you'd like to delete #1. Which I would.)

4. You simply don't have to trade options.

5. Just a pair of bank accounts and a low cost global bond index fund (short-term bonds if you wish) can serve quite well in this role.

If you want to split the above holdings across two high quality custodians, probably one "on shore" and one "off shore," that'll be fine and enough.

yes bro. there are folks who like to sign up for travel packages. everything all taken care of. for me, I like to backpack.

 

[reddevil0728]

yes bro. there are folks who like to sign up for travel packages. everything all taken care of. for me, I like to backpack.

lol where the relevance?

 

[mummy_mouse]

No need to worry if no money.

 

[jayou8]

No need to worry if no money.

actually for retirees no enuff money then worry

unlike gainfully employed, their income is real

for retirees:-

inflation = "pay-cut"
stock market down = "pay-cut"

 

[mummy_mouse]

actually for retirees no enuff money then worry

unlike gainfully employed, their income is real

for retirees:-

inflation = "pay-cut"
stock market down = "pay-cut"

That’s why must learn to build passive income before retire.

 

[martin]

Times like this can learn a thing or two from the ostrich. Log into the account again in 12 months time. Should be more green than red.

If one loses sleep over any one particular investment, chances are put too much in already. need to spread the love around:

my case, i am spread across various property types - local, foreign, HDB, private, commercial.
my bonds holdings are spread across 30 different entities
my stock holdings are spread across US, SG, MY and HK markets and companies.
my option trades are mostly hedged
my cash is spread across SGD, USD, HKD and RM in various banks

Yes, noted with thanks.

 

[d5dude]

Semi-retired so my funds are for retirement and old age. I am very much risk averse, and have kept my money in bank FD, SSBs, max my cpf, but still have some in stocks, mostly reits, sti etfs and a few blue chips like our 3 banks and ST Eng. Personally, i am rather worried about the global political situation, the threat of a major war seems quite real. Even if not, a big recession looks likely too. What are your thoughts about liquidating equities and put into FDs (because i am really risk averse) or other instruments like gold? I am not very well-versed in matters like this so like to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

If you are semi-retired and risk averse then maybe consider holding more fixed income. Stocks tend to do best over the very long run (30+ yr period) but they can sometimes be cut in half, its risky to hold a ton of stocks during retirement due to sequence risk. General rule of thumb is 110 - age (e.g if you are 50 yr old the optimal allocation to stocks should be 60%) to figure out your allocation to stocks, but for the very risk averse 90 - age can work too.

Gold is not a great hedge for anything really, like many other commodities there tends be a lot of speculation in gold, it usually tanks when everything crashes e.g 2008 GFC, 2020 covid crash.

 

[Andrew833]

If you are semi-retired and risk averse then maybe consider holding more fixed income. Stocks tend to do best over the very long run (30+ yr period) but they can sometimes be cut in half, its risky to hold a ton of stocks during retirement due to sequence risk. General rule of thumb is 110 - age (e.g if you are 50 yr old the optimal allocation to stocks should be 60%) to figure out your allocation to stocks, but for the very risk averse 90 - age can work too.

Gold is not a great hedge for anything really, like many other commodities there tends be a lot of speculation in gold, it usually tanks when everything crashes e.g 2008 GFC, 2020 covid crash.

If you know and understand equity, and you the kind that monitor and read earning report every quarter or semi annually then I don't think why you can't allocate more on equity to increase your return. If you don't or just buy and forget type, then better allocate lesser in equity.

 

[BBCWatcher]

If you know and understand equity, and you the kind that monitor and read earning report every quarter or semi annually then I don't think why you can't allocate more on equity to increase your return. If you don't or just buy and forget type, then better allocate lesser in equity.

I don’t understand your logic. A low cost global stock index fund (as a notable example) doesn’t require any monitoring. Certainly not any more than anything else I can think of, and usually less.

 

[Andrew833]

I don’t understand your logic. A low cost global stock index fund (as a notable example) doesn’t require any monitoring. Certainly not any more than anything else I can think of, and usually less.

Stock and fund are different