In this case, won’t the passive income drop a lot? And unstable to rely on this for retirement income? realise that 2/3 of my passive income is from bonds, endowment, savings etc
Bonds payout should be stable during interest rates but yield will fluctuate with capital gains and losses. Even dividends yields can fluctuate.
Nothing is for certain. Just need to cater for some buffer
U already lock in the yields from bonds
We should distinguish between direct holding of bonds and bond funds. Let's start with bond funds, and I'll use MBH as a prototypical example.
Over long enough (or longer) time periods MBH will probably generate an average net real return of about 0.5%. More simply, it should do a bit better than Singapore dollar inflation over long enough (or longer) time periods. That's an educated guess, but I think it's a reasonable forecast. MBH invests in investment grade (and pseudo "investment grade") corporate and quasi-sovereign Singapore dollar denominated bonds. As of the end of July, 2024, its bond portfolio had a weighted average nominal yield to maturity of 3.62%, and the weighted average duration was 5.7 years. As interest rates fall (bond prices rise) its share price should rise (its existing bond portfolio will appreciate). But it's only a ~5.7 year bond fund, so both good times and bad times (in bond market terms) don't last forever.
If you're directly holding an individual bond, that bond could mature tomorrow (or at least very soon), or almost 50 years from now. (MAS has been issuing 50 year bonds lately.) If you're just holding a bond until maturity then you get whatever the coupons are until maturity, assuming there's no default. Then face value at maturity. If you bought a "high" interest rate bond, congratulations. If you bought a "low" interest bond, I'm sorry. But either way the coupons are whatever they are. Coupons are fixed, of course (with bonds issued in Singapore anyway), and (with inflation) coupons will have progressively lower real values. Once the bond reaches maturity the deal ends. If you're 90 years old holding a bond with 38 years to maturity then you can depend on coupons outlasting your lifespan (assuming no default). If you're 30 years old holding a bond with 4 years to maturity, different story.
At maturity you may be thrust into a low interest rate environment (high priced bonds), high interest rate environment (low priced bonds), or something in between. How lucky do you feel? That's an advantage of bond funds: they hold a larger portfolio of bonds than you can usually hold, and they continuously cycle bonds through their portfolio, consistent with the fund objectives.