Early retirement - 500k or 5M

henrylbh

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Since it's 500k or 5M, don't ever think or dream of retirement if no 5M.
 

BBCWatcher

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Mr. Money Moustache isn't retired. He simply changed professions.
 

Minimalists

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5M is just about right with average kind of spending. If I were to minimise that, a sum of 1.5M inclusive of 300k hdb and 200k future medical expenses. 1M is enough for minimalist retirement. But I don’t recommend this to anyone. The right path is to do what you like and make a living from that. Enjoy the real life, the ups and downs, the essence of truth.
 

ELKYme

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Suze Orman is more a TV star than anything else (degree in social work).

Not many of us commoners will have 5 million (not counting the property we stay in) when we retire.
 

revhappy

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5M is just about right with average kind of spending. If I were to minimise that, a sum of 1.5M inclusive of 300k hdb and 200k future medical expenses. 1M is enough for minimalist retirement. But I don’t recommend this to anyone. The right path is to do what you like and make a living from that. Enjoy the real life, the ups and downs, the essence of truth.

I believe a bit in this conspiracy theory, that the elite out there want us all to work until death and keep consuming. That is how the economy runs. If everyone becomes frugal, the economy will collapse.

If you notice, we are given just about enough time off necessary for our biological things like sleep, go for lunch etc. Imagine if we didn't need to sleep, these guys would have made us work 18 hours a day. If we didn't have to eat, they won't give us lunch break also.

So this keep working until you drop dead is a conspiracy. The FIRE movement's core philosophy is that you don't need to work until you drop dead. You can be happier, by spending more intelligently and saving money in the process.
 

henrylbh

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Can be happier spending more intelligently and saving money in the process? It's individual's mindset. I rather driver a Merc than cycling or even driving a Hyundai, though I prefer cycling for certain places.
 

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I would believe the peddlers of this "retire at age 3X" idea if they advocated purchasing an adequate, immediate (or not too deferred), lifetime, escalating (inflation-linked) annuity from a quality insurer, then retiring. Such annuities are readily available, especially in the United States.

The central problem with shutting down income flows during or even before prime working ages is that you probably won't know if you've come up short until it's effectively too late to recover. For each individual the test of the adequacy hypothesis is decades into the future. (Isn't that "convenient" for the peddlers?) But a lifetime annuity, properly configured and sized, neatly and directly combats that risk.

So why aren't these people advocating that approach? I know the reason why: the real financial math is tougher than people think, and it's directly called out when you go look at the prices of life annuities (which are very good prices in the U.S.) We humans are very, very good at too heavily discounting the future. We're probably programmed that way, most of us anyway. We evolved over millions of years when humans (and our ancestors) had much shorter life expectancies.

Anyway, I have no problem with anybody who wishes to retire early, as long as you're properly defended with an adequate or better lifetime income stream along the lines I've outlined. If you're able to do that and do that, that's fine. But if you look at the sticker price for an appropriately configured life annuity and say, "Oh s***t! I can't afford that!" then you're simply not ready to drop your income down to zero.

It's also really weird to me that it's apparently so difficult to find something you enjoy doing that somebody will pay you something to do. Maybe I'm just extraordinarily lucky, but I don't think I'm that extraordinarily lucky. At some point I'll probably decide I'm not having enough fun, but at the moment I'm having plenty of fun in my career.
 
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revhappy

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I think it is the philosophy and approach that is the key and not the exact amount or age of early retirement. I am 100% sure, there chances of retiring earlier, by even 1 yr, is higher if you spend frugally rather than splurging? If your salary is 100k and you save 50k over a period of 10 years you make 500k. If you don't save that 50k you make zero. So your chances of retiring earlier are higher if you had saved 50k a year. If you want to keep working and love your job, you can do that by all means. But the elites don't want you to save 50k a year. They would rather you spend everything and keep working until you drop dead. I read something like 1% of the people control like 90% of the wealth in the world. The rest of the people are given peanuts so that they keep working until they die. It is like a carrot to keep you motivated.

I see in my office the house keeping lady has an iPhone, kopitiam staff have iPhone, I tell in my mind, these people are not retiring anytime soon, I hope they really love their job.
 
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revhappy

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Bbcwatcher, in fact there are studies that majority people in the US are not even equipped to retire at 60. What you and Shiny propose about ETFs and passive investment is only one part of the equation. The quantum of amount that goes into the ETFs is as important as those ETFs themselves, if not more. If people are saving only 10 or 20% of their salary then they are not going to become rich by retirement. You and Shiny are exceptional talents, so I am not talking about you guys, I am talking about the masses, who have jobs and not careers.


 
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BBCWatcher

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But the elites don't want you to save 50k a year. They would rather you spend everything and keep working until you drop dead.
Who are these "elites"? I see plenty of people, including many people in positions of authority and many wealthy people, encouraging responsible spending and saving for future needs, including retirement.

Didn't somebody mention Suze Orman? She's not in favor of unbridled consumerism. Is she "elite"?
 

havetheveryfun

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Who are these "elites"? I see plenty of people, including many people in positions of authority and many wealthy people, encouraging responsible spending and saving for future needs, including retirement.

Didn't somebody mention Suze Orman? She's not in favor of unbridled consumerism. Is she "elite"?

They encourage people to save for retirement because they don't have a choice.

They only encourage people to save for retirement, but they don't encourage people to retire earlier. They encourage people to be working till the point where they really cannot work anymore. An example is the constant raising of the retirement age in Singapore.
 

BBCWatcher

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Let's do a little bit of math here, using a U.S. example. Let's suppose you want to retire -- defined as zero income -- at age 40. You feel you can be reasonably happy, or better, living on 2/3rds of median U.S. household income. That equates to about US$40,000 per year (2018 dollars). This is not lavish, I think we can agree. Let's suppose you're expecting U.S. Social Security benefits at age 62 of about $1,000/month (2018 dollars) or $12,000 per year, so from age 62 you need $28,000/year (2018 dollars again).

Let's assume no spouse or partner as this point.

So, what do you need for $40,000/year to age 62 and $28,000/year from age 62 -- plus Consumer Price Index adjustments every year to both? That's a pair of annuities: a lifetime CPI-linked immediate annuity paying $28,000/year (2018 dollars), and then something that'll reliably generate $12,000/year for 22 years. And the answer is you'll need something more than US$1 million at age 40 to make this math work. (Exactly how much more is a little harder to calculate and would require obtaining exact annuity quotations.)

You can run lots of "What ifs?" with the numbers, but this sort of math is what you'd need to do if you're going to take this exercise seriously.

How many people in the U.S. are millionaires at age 40? It's a fairly wealthy country, and there are a few 40 year old millionaires, but it's not a number very many people are hitting.
 

revhappy

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Who are these "elites"? I see plenty of people, including many people in positions of authority and many wealthy people, encouraging responsible spending and saving for future needs, including retirement.

Didn't somebody mention Suze Orman? She's not in favor of unbridled consumerism. Is she "elite"?

Who are the elites? Here is the definition:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite

They are basically a handful of people who control this entire financial system. They want you to work your ass off and keep consuming things that you don't want.
 

revhappy

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Let's do a little bit of math here, using a U.S. example. Let's suppose you want to retire -- defined as zero income -- at age 40. You feel you can be reasonably happy, or better, living on 2/3rds of median U.S. household income. That equates to about US$40,000 per year (2018 dollars). This is not lavish, I think we can agree. Let's suppose you're expecting U.S. Social Security benefits at age 62 of about $1,000/month (2018 dollars) or $12,000 per year, so from age 62 you need $28,000/year (2018 dollars again).

Let's assume no spouse or partner as this point.

So, what do you need for $40,000/year to age 62 and $28,000/year from age 62 -- plus Consumer Price Index adjustments every year to both? That's a pair of annuities: a lifetime CPI-linked immediate annuity paying $28,000/year (2018 dollars), and then something that'll reliably generate $12,000/year for 22 years. And the answer is you'll need something more than US$1 million at age 40 to make this math work. (Exactly how much more is a little harder to calculate and would require obtaining exact annuity quotations.)

You can run lots of "What ifs?" with the numbers, but this sort of math is what you'd need to do if you're going to take this exercise seriously.

How many people in the U.S. are millionaires at age 40? It's a fairly wealthy country, and there are a few 40 year old millionaires, but it's not a number very many people are hitting.

True, I agree. I am not saying people should be hung up about a certain age for early retirement. The whole idea of FIRE is work towards it, by spending frugally and investing wisely. Even FIREing at 60 is an achievement for many people. If they didn't take the path of frugality they may have never been able to retire at all.
 

BBCWatcher

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They only encourage people to save for retirement, but they don't encourage people to retire earlier. They encourage people to be working till the point where they really cannot work anymore. An example is the constant raising of the retirement age in Singapore.
Wait a minute. You can retire at any age you want in Singapore, at least if you're a citizen of Singapore. The only thing that's changed is the earliest age when you can start drawing CPF retirement benefits, now age 65. (There's also an age 55 withdrawal option of at least $5,000 for most people.) Over many years that number was raised by 10 years. But life expectancy at age 65 increased more than 10 years, so there you go.

If you cannot make today's age 65 CPF LIFE math work as part of your retirement plan, then you wouldn't have been able to make the age 55 retirement math of yesteryear work. If you want to complain, then complain about the fact Singaporeans are living much longer and healthier lives. Which is an odd thing to complain about, but that wonderful reality is a critical part of retirement financial planning.

OK then, CPF LIFE forms part of your retirement plan. Now it's up to you to form the rest of it from your income, your net savings, and your investment choices. Go to the escalating life annuity sellers in Singapore (e.g. NTUC, Manulife, Tokio Marine) and see if you can square the numbers and drop your income to zero, starting at age 41 for example. If the math works, great, that's something you can do. But unfortunately this math just doesn't work at all for most people. Sorry about that! But that's the reality, I'm afraid. Keep earning an income for a couple more years, try to boost savings, make prudent investment decisions, and sanity check the math again. Does the math work at 43? If it does, great. If not, loop, repeat.

By the way, this particular retirement math gets a heck of a lot easier if you do something a lot of Singaporeans hate to do: avoid having a real estate fetish. (How many threads do we see in this very forum from all the people who think they're going to be real estate tycoons?) Although you might want to have an owner-occupied primary residence, and that might make financial sense (especially with subsidized HDB), you really don't want much of your net worth tied up in illiquid real estate. No, you want plenty of funds to buy that single premium escalating life annuity when you drop your income to zero at age 40, for example. And that's a heck of a lot harder to do if you have $850K of real estate equity locked up. On paper you're fairly wealthy in that event, but your wealth is difficult to reformulate into steady income for living. (Reverse mortgages aren't too popular in Singapore, unfortunately.) In the Singapore context, if you're a believer in this "FIRE" stuff, the most important thing you can do is to be very, very careful about keeping your real estate holdings under tight control. Housing is the "big ticket" item in Singapore, for sure, and unliberated home equity is something of a curse for these purposes. Stick to one, modest primary HDB residence at most. (One could make a very strong argument for divesting that leasehold, liberating the equity, and renting if you're a "FIRE" sort of person.)
 
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havetheveryfun

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Wait a minute. You can retire at any age you want in Singapore, at least if you're a citizen of Singapore. The only thing that's changed is the earliest age when you can start drawing CPF retirement benefits, now age 65. (There's also an age 55 withdrawal option of at least $5,000 for most people.) Over many years that number was raised by 10 years. But life expectancy at age 65 increased more than 10 years, so there go you.

of cos u can retire at any age u want. thats free will.

the point is very few ppl will encourage u to retire earlier. retiring earlier is seen to some ppl as being a parasite to society, not contributing to the economy, etc. so dont know what is ur point of going on and on about all the other things about retirement math
 

revhappy

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of cos u can retire at any age u want. thats free will.

the point is very few ppl will encourage u to retire earlier. retiring earlier is seen to some ppl as being a parasite to society, not contributing to the economy, etc. so dont know what is ur point of going on and on about all the other things about retirement math

Indeed. If you retire early you are not paying taxes. If you are not consuming on unnecessary stuff you are not paying GST or other taxes and you are not making the share holders of the likes of AAPL, paid cable TV, Starbucks etc rich.

Japan is the best example. People went into saving overdrive and that caused a lost decade for them. They made interest rates negative to punish the savers. What is good for the individual is bad for the economy and vice versa.
 
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BBCWatcher

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the point is very few ppl will encourage u to retire earlier. retiring earlier is seen to some ppl as being a parasite to society, not contributing to the economy, etc.
Well, f*** 'em. If you want to retire at age 40 (for example), and if you can truly afford it -- via buying enough baseline escalating life annuity to pull it off -- then go for it.

Most people genuinely cannot afford to do this. The financial math just doesn't work.
 
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