eauyong
Senior Member
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Many Kiwi Whites migrate out to Australia for "greener" pastures. Migration and Housing is correlated. Below is a recent NZ ASB report FYI.
NZ migration and tourism: June 2026: Slowing as expected.
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Net migration remains positive but is slowing. We revised down our 2026 migration outlook last month and this data supports that call. A slower improvement in migration has implications for things like the NZ housing market, which has been broadly flat for the last three years.
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Kiwi flight remains high but continues to tick lower in annual terms. Chinese, Indian and ASEAN cohorts continue to comprise most of the growth in PLT (Permanent and Long-Term) arrivals.
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Tourism has slowed in quarterly terms but is now 94% of pre-COVID peaks, totalling nearly 3.7m annual arrivals. Most of this is driven by Aussies, who will come here for the incoming peak ski season. We expect tourism to remain firm in the next few months.
Net migration remained positive over June (+1.6k) but has slowed broadly as expected. Annual net migration in the June 2026 year clocked in at under 18k and the seasonally adjusted annualised figures were firmer at 22k, but both measures are well south of circa 46k longer-term annual averages. Downward revisions plague these releases, but we accounted for this since our downgrade to the 2026 immigration outlook last month – not too much occurred in this release that breached our expectations. Although net migration is improving, the growth is materially slower than the RBNZ’s last published projections in May. This will have implications for things like the NZ housing market, which has been broadly flat over the last three years. Migration dynamics are important for policy, but the RBNZ will prefer relying more on capacity-pressure metrics than volatile migration data. Still, the way this data is performing poses downside risks to our long-awaited economic recovery.
Annual short-term visitors have increased to ~3.7 million in the June 2026 year. This is now 94% of pre-COVID peaks. Surprisingly, despite the geopolitical ructions and evidence of a bit of slowdown in the quarter (down 1.2% q/q), tourism and the external sector more generally has been a good news story for the NZ economy. More than 70% of the annual increase in tourist arrivals is accounted for by Aussie and Chinese visitors. A weaker NZD has helped tourists feel richer when they come here, and we expect the ski season (generally peaks during July-August) to buttress growth in these cohorts in the near term.
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NZ migration and tourism: June 2026: Slowing as expected.
•
Net migration remains positive but is slowing. We revised down our 2026 migration outlook last month and this data supports that call. A slower improvement in migration has implications for things like the NZ housing market, which has been broadly flat for the last three years.
•
Kiwi flight remains high but continues to tick lower in annual terms. Chinese, Indian and ASEAN cohorts continue to comprise most of the growth in PLT (Permanent and Long-Term) arrivals.
•
Tourism has slowed in quarterly terms but is now 94% of pre-COVID peaks, totalling nearly 3.7m annual arrivals. Most of this is driven by Aussies, who will come here for the incoming peak ski season. We expect tourism to remain firm in the next few months.
Net migration remained positive over June (+1.6k) but has slowed broadly as expected. Annual net migration in the June 2026 year clocked in at under 18k and the seasonally adjusted annualised figures were firmer at 22k, but both measures are well south of circa 46k longer-term annual averages. Downward revisions plague these releases, but we accounted for this since our downgrade to the 2026 immigration outlook last month – not too much occurred in this release that breached our expectations. Although net migration is improving, the growth is materially slower than the RBNZ’s last published projections in May. This will have implications for things like the NZ housing market, which has been broadly flat over the last three years. Migration dynamics are important for policy, but the RBNZ will prefer relying more on capacity-pressure metrics than volatile migration data. Still, the way this data is performing poses downside risks to our long-awaited economic recovery.
Annual short-term visitors have increased to ~3.7 million in the June 2026 year. This is now 94% of pre-COVID peaks. Surprisingly, despite the geopolitical ructions and evidence of a bit of slowdown in the quarter (down 1.2% q/q), tourism and the external sector more generally has been a good news story for the NZ economy. More than 70% of the annual increase in tourist arrivals is accounted for by Aussie and Chinese visitors. A weaker NZD has helped tourists feel richer when they come here, and we expect the ski season (generally peaks during July-August) to buttress growth in these cohorts in the near term.
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