Executive Condo (EC) bubble?

[captain huat]

Ownself cdl go start the trend to big high high for this ec land now asking govt for help. Joke lah this guy.

i agree with you.

how much can one pay for with a 14k Monthly household Cap.
for argument sake, by my own estimation, my budget is 0.9mil if my household income is 14K.

taking note i need 3 bedroom for any constructive family planning.

at 1.1K psf, i can afford to buy 818squarefeet
at 1.3K psf , i can afford to buy 692squarefeet
at 1.5K psf, i can afford to buy 600squarefeet

3bedroom for 600squarefeet, lolx.

if this sumang ec is at 1.1k psf it should be the limit already.

i cannot imagine if EC is sold at 1.5K psf.
then whats the point.

 

[Pokémon]

how much can one pay for with a 14k Monthly household Cap.

There is always the HDB Upgraders with tons of money after selling off the current flat. Probably those are the ones they target on.

 

[pippo20]

There is always the HDB Upgraders with tons of money after selling off the current flat. Probably those are the ones they target on.

Where got profit liao after $40k or 50k resale levy? For argument sake, those who profit from selling pinnacle at duxton can buy. From central tanjong pagar to punggol hee..

 

[captain huat]

There is always the HDB Upgraders with tons of money after selling off the current flat. Probably those are the ones they target on.

i am assuming that a large part of EC demand comes from 1st time buyers going to married couples.

which we have to further assume that parents may help a bit but not a lot.

 

[annetyu]

i agree with you.

how much can one pay for with a 14k Monthly household Cap.
for argument sake, by my own estimation, my budget is 0.9mil if my household income is 14K.

taking note i need 3 bedroom for any constructive family planning.

at 1.1K psf, i can afford to buy 818squarefeet
at 1.3K psf , i can afford to buy 692squarefeet
at 1.5K psf, i can afford to buy 600squarefeet

3bedroom for 600squarefeet, lolx.

if this sumang ec is at 1.1k psf it should be the limit already.

i cannot imagine if EC is sold at 1.5K psf.
then whats the point.

Yes, reason why past few EC could sell out at higher psf is because the sizes are getting smaller and smaller. Less than 5 years back, I rmb seeing 1300sqft 3 bedders and minimum size was 1000sqft. I won't be surprised that sumang ec has 3 bedders as small as 800sqft.

Yes, people can still afford it but what quality of life would a family of 4 have in their shoebox.

 

[skizzer]

Yes, reason why past few EC could sell out at higher psf is because the sizes are getting smaller and smaller. Less than 5 years back, I rmb seeing 1300sqft 3 bedders and minimum size was 1000sqft. I won't be surprised that sumang ec has 3 bedders as small as 850sqft.

Yes, people can still afford it but what quality of life would a family of 4 have in their shoebox.

I think that another thing we need to keep in mind is: is the current housing price gg to come down or maintain or go up? Currently the bull thesis for PC price is that developer bid so high liao, cannot afford to lose money, so will def sell high.

I have no doubt that CDL ll TRY to sell Sumang at say 1.1 as a start, but I am of the view that EC is likely to suffer along with overall PC market because of all the inventory glut that has to come into the market due to the last few ears enbloc fever.

But that is of coz a thesis n will likely take 2-3 years to play out.

 

[captain huat]

Yes, reason why past few EC could sell out at higher psf is because the sizes are getting smaller and smaller. Less than 5 years back, I rmb seeing 1300sqft 3 bedders and minimum size was 1000sqft. I won't be surprised that sumang ec has 3 bedders as small as 800sqft.

Yes, people can still afford it but what quality of life would a family of 4 have in their shoebox.

ask u 2 questions:

1) Do you believe all 99 leasehold condos will enbloc eventually?

2) Do you believe, within a certain area, do 99 leasehold condos has better or same chance for enbloc compared to a freehold/999 condos?

 

[Clazav]

The answer is actually, these leasehold en bloc are mostly ex hudc. But again I believe the trend will go toward having more leasehold en bloc than freehold. Just my view.

u are correct.

i noticed this especially 2017 and 2018.

maybe one (meaning those current/potential owners in old leasehold 99 condo) has to further investigate if there are any similarities between those 99 leasehold kenna enbloc and then make their own conclusion if the property they are looking has chance for future enbloc.

at the end of this debate i think it boils down to 2 questions:

1) Do you believe all 99 leasehold condos will enbloc eventually?

2) Do you believe, within a certain area, do 99 leasehold condos has better or same chance for enbloc compared to a freehold/999 condos?

 

[annetyu]

ask u 2 questions:

1) Do you believe all 99 leasehold condos will enbloc eventually?

2) Do you believe, within a certain area, do 99 leasehold condos has better or same chance for enbloc compared to a freehold/999 condos?

I am not sure why you are asking me about en bloc but obviously not all 99year leasehold condo will enbloc. Whether or not 99lh or freehold has better chance of en bloc depends on how much more value the piece of land can generate if redeveloped.

With Paya Lebar Airbase moving out soon, I believe there is potential for the condos/hdb aro the area whether 99 or fh to redevelop into taller apartments.

 

[Clazav]

If size is 800 sqft, I'm pretty sure it will be affordable but the sale will be poor. Many condo with small size other than those in ccr are selling poorly. Developers need to believe that these new couples are in the mid thirty and have significant saving and cpf oa, as well as some back up from their parents.
900 plus sqft with 1kpsf I think is possible to still sell relatively fine.

Yes, reason why past few EC could sell out at higher psf is because the sizes are getting smaller and smaller. Less than 5 years back, I rmb seeing 1300sqft 3 bedders and minimum size was 1000sqft. I won't be surprised that sumang ec has 3 bedders as small as 800sqft.

Yes, people can still afford it but what quality of life would a family of 4 have in their shoebox.

 

[PostCountWarrior[+1]]

confirm got people go rush and buy 1.1k psf ec. ok thanks, please close this thread.

 

[birmingham123]

The official selling price of punggol EC is not yet ma.. maybe it will launch at 1050psf ? Think will sell out .

 

[infernolord]

If size is 800 sqft, I'm pretty sure it will be affordable but the sale will be poor. Many condo with small size other than those in ccr are selling poorly. Developers need to believe that these new couples are in the mid thirty and have significant saving and cpf oa, as well as some back up from their parents.
900 plus sqft with 1kpsf I think is possible to still sell relatively fine.

I doubt sales will be poor.
Last year when hundred palm EC price are out, the rest of the ECs (which ppl say were overpriced) sold out almost immediately because new EC is more ex.
So when the EC prices are going higher, what deem as expensive will become cheap and ppl will be out to grab. lol
ppl will think i buy "cheaper" EC, aldy earn discounts and eventually sell at premium. Same ma, agents will sell you saying PC is reaching 1.3k psf, EC only 1k psf.. u aldy earn the discount which u can sell it at 1.2kpsf.

 

[skizzer]

I doubt sales will be poor.
Last year when hundred palm EC price are out, the rest of the ECs (which ppl say were overpriced) sold out almost immediately because new EC is more ex.
So when the EC prices are going higher, what deem as expensive will become cheap and ppl will be out to grab. lol
ppl will think i buy "cheaper" EC, aldy earn discounts and eventually sell at premium. Same ma, agents will sell you saying PC is reaching 1.3k psf, EC only 1k psf.. u aldy earn the discount which u can sell it at 1.2kpsf.

Last year and now is totally different sentiment.

If not you go look at APAC and Propnex share price. Last year APAC share price was at 1 dollar something in its peak. Hundred Palms EC was sold out and the other ECs quickly got snapped up becoz PC price was climbing 3~4% a quarter.

Then July 2018 came. Enbloc deals start to die. Developers start to back out.

CDL who bought Sumang EC land at 580+psf ppr in Feb 2018 got stuck, because they bought with the expectations of further climb in PC price, not the Q3~Q4 price drop in PC resale market.

Citing one Hundred Palms case study is not very representative and useful considering how different the property market sentiment has been since then. Now the mood is even REDAS pres/chair has to beg govt to save them.

Capitaland (one of the smartest) just said that even today's SG resi property market is not attractive, they ll only come back in if the pricing gets more attractive.

 

[xtwis7]

You’ve got some good points. CapitaLand just shot itself in the foot with what they just said. And knowingly more people still want to dive into getting a EC?

Sentiments totally different from last year.

Last year and now is totally different sentiment.

If not you go look at APAC and Propnex share price. Last year APAC share price was at 1 dollar something in its peak. Hundred Palms EC was sold out and the other ECs quickly got snapped up becoz PC price was climbing 3~4% a quarter.

Then July 2018 came. Enbloc deals start to die. Developers start to back out.

CDL who bought Sumang EC land at 580+psf ppr in Feb 2018 got stuck, because they bought with the expectations of further climb in PC price, not the Q3~Q4 price drop in PC resale market.

Citing one Hundred Palms case study is not very representative and useful considering how different the property market sentiment has been since then. Now the mood is even REDAS pres/chair has to beg govt to save them.

Capitaland (one of the smartest) just said that even today's SG resi property market is not attractive, they ll only come back in if the pricing gets more attractive.

 

[skizzer]

You’ve got some good points. CapitaLand just shot itself in the foot with what they just said. And knowingly more people still want to dive into getting a EC?

Sentiments totally different from last year.

Even if Capitaland rly come back tmr into the market aso nvm de lol.

End of the day, day 1 say A, day 2 say B also nvm lol. it's all abt money and P&L.

 

[bojangle]

There is always the HDB Upgraders with tons of money after selling off the current flat. Probably those are the ones they target on.

EC if targeting at HDB upgraders then for sure gone case.
Cos upgrader usually will only sell the flat nearer to the key collection, make no sense to sell 1st, book an EC and rent a place for 3yrs which HDB policy do not require u to do so.
So the loaded part will only materialized in later part and not initial when booking EC.
Also, the initial CASH upfront is ridiculous for an upgrader compared to 1st timer. Not all will bite or can afford, the loan is lesser than 80% as well means u need more downpayment.

 

[Clazav]

I believe it will sell well too, but developers need to bear in mind that the size cannot be too small, like 800sqft and below.

I doubt sales will be poor.
Last year when hundred palm EC price are out, the rest of the ECs (which ppl say were overpriced) sold out almost immediately because new EC is more ex.
So when the EC prices are going higher, what deem as expensive will become cheap and ppl will be out to grab. lol
ppl will think i buy "cheaper" EC, aldy earn discounts and eventually sell at premium. Same ma, agents will sell you saying PC is reaching 1.3k psf, EC only 1k psf.. u aldy earn the discount which u can sell it at 1.2kpsf.

 

[fotoudavid]

It's true on the 5 % and 15% initially. Very tough for young couples and upgraders. I saw people selling their hdb to pay the 15% and stay with parents, some more with kids squeeze in one room waiting for the TOP.

Now even harder as need pay say 25%?

 

[dnsfpl]

1m ec = 200k cash = 100k each

few of my kaki loan from their parents