Forex Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread 2019

[Shiny Things]

I am not greedy... that is the difference between 50% traders and 100% traders....we don't need to rush and grab what we can slowly enjoy and besides...I do what I like...not what you like...what you like always brought you to disaster so not good idea to follow

This is nonsense. You're literally leaving money on the table. You could make 20% more profit with no risk if you really had a "100% win" strategy.

I think the reason you're not leveraged up further is that you know you don't really have a "100% win" strategy. You know perfectly well that you're at a lot of risk of getting forcibly closed out if the markets move against you sometime in the next nine months.

If you leveraged up to the eyeballs and the market moves against you, you'd get stopped out. If EURJPY moves by 500 pips or so, or USDJPY moves by 400 pips or so, you're going to start taking losses.

But if you really had a "100% win strategy", you'd never get stopped out.

So you know that the market can move against you, and that you don't really have a 100% win strategy.

But you have to keep saying that, because you're committed to it and you'll be humiliated and lose face if you're ever proven wrong.

 

[blurinvestor]

AMP Apr19 135 PUT @ $1.90 or better

APH Apr19 100 PUT @ $0.90 or better

WYNN Apr19 135 PUT @ $2.60 or better

NTES Apr19 267.5 PUT @ $6.80 or better.

101% strike

 

[Shiny Things]

Hahaha...I can understand your jealousy.... 50% traders are like that la. They cannot see beyond their noses...you cannot see too far also.

I leave money on the the table??...yes I do...I have enough...too much in fact, why not leave some for 50% bozos like you...act of charity.

For someone who has "too much money" and a "100% win strategy" you trade pretty small size.

There is no IF....I have a 100% win strategy and I will always have 100% r

You are obviously a very smart person and a thoughtful trader who understands your bets, so answer me this: what will your profit be if USDJPY drops by ten big figures?

Or are you saying "that will never happen, USDJPY will never go outside my range of strikes"?

If you want, we can do the math together and figure out what your PnL will be. You'll see that selling strangles is not a "100% win" strategy.

 

[MrPippen]

Now you can see the POWER of the 100% traders...always win..never lose as against the 50% bozos that call themselves traders....

MY aeroplane...Piper Cherokee PA28-140 ....reg 9V-BNH 9V registration is a Singapore aircraft registration...so all you idiot 50% traders foolishly kena conned and trading with charts thinking can do magic....What aeroplane do you fly??...huh...never mind what car you drive la...what car you drive is for those below us champion traders la...so 50% traders...what airplane you fly ???

Eh, you anyhow post a picture of a plane and say its yours....not very convincing...just saying..

 

[MrPippen]

For someone who has "too much money" and a "100% win strategy" you trade pretty small size.



You are obviously a very smart person and a thoughtful trader who understands your bets, so answer me this: what will your profit be if USDJPY drops by ten big figures?

Or are you saying "that will never happen, USDJPY will never go outside my range of strikes"?

If you want, we can do the math together and figure out what your PnL will be. You'll see that selling strangles is not a "100% win" strategy.

Dear Shiny, what do you think of Mr.Canberra's scalping no stop loss strategy?

Thanks.

 

[MrPippen]

LOL...ya...you go to the airport and ask for the airworthiness section...then go there and ask if you can find out the owner of 9V-BNH...or just ask if there is such an aircraft...if you want to find the owner you have to pay a $5000 search fee...small money la

Airworthiness Section is on the 4th floor if I remember...unless they shifted la

I'm just saying there are easier ways to flaunt....

 

[Shiny Things]

Dear Shiny, what do you think of Mr.Canberra's scalping no stop loss strategy?

Thanks.

Scalping strategies - Mr. C, stop me if I'm mischaracterizing your strategy - are inherently short-term strategies; you're trying to capture a short-term move in the market one way or the other. Scalping positions should probably have a stop on them, even if it's just you thinking "ehh if this goes another 10 points against me I'm going to cut it".

Eh, you anyhow post a picture of a plane and say its yours....not very convincing...just saying..

Also Piper stopped making the 140 in 1977. I can buy that that's a real photo and that that's his plane, if the photo was shot in the late sixties or early seventies, but... he doesn't have a more recent photo?

Oh..it goes out very often and that is very good for me...the more it goes out...the more money I will make

But if USDJPY or EURUSD moves by more than about 200 or 300 pips either direction, Saxo will close your positions because you've lost so much money that you'll hit your account value shield. Do you understand that?

I'm trying to be helpful, because after your misunderstanding of "available cash" and your "unrealized PnL" I really want to make sure you understand what you're doing. Your posts come across as very arrogant and rude, and I've seen too many traders blow up because they were arrogant and rude and didn't listen to advice. You've already lost a lot of face in here. Will you let us help you?

 

[atf0007]

I'm just saying there are easier ways to flaunt....

Yes. And I would not haolian using a cheapo plane as example. Hahaha. Some people cheap and haolian.

 

[MrPippen]

Scalping strategies - Mr. C, stop me if I'm mischaracterizing your strategy - are inherently short-term strategies; you're trying to capture a short-term move in the market one way or the other. Scalping positions should probably have a stop on them, even if it's just you thinking "ehh if this goes another 10 points against me I'm going to cut it".



Also Piper stopped making the 140 in 1977. I can buy that that's a real photo and that that's his plane, if the photo was shot in the late sixties or early seventies, but... he doesn't have a more recent photo?

I never understood how Canberra's strategy works...no stop loss of over 400 pips but take profits for 20-50 pips?

As for it being his plane, he should just do it the EDMW way and write his nickname there. No one can say anything then..

 

[MrPippen]

No I do not understand that...I was in the Lehmann Bros meltdown and the market went down by 20 big figures...Saxo did not shutdown my account...Saxo did not even give me a margin call...quite obviously you know a lot more about the markets than Saxo ...lol...or you do not know what Saxo knows

I actually find you very knowledgable; its a pity that you do not take any directional bias.

 

[Shiny Things]

No I do not understand that...

Then would you like me to go through the math with you and explain why? This is really important if you're trading options.

quite obviously you know a lot more about the markets than Saxo

To be fair, Saxo's options desk used to sell off their risk to me when I was in the German bank, soooo... maybe true?

Like a lot of other retail brokers, they'd aggregate their client positions into market parcels of $30-$50 million notional and then clear those out with bigger players. I was one of those bigger players (though very much on the smaller end of the big guys; I used to quote in 30s and 50s, but Deutsche and Citi would quote in 100s and 200s all day every day).

 

[Shiny Things]

I actually find you very knowledgable; its a pity that you do not take any directional bias.

He does take a directional bias - it's just a directional bias on vol rather than spot. VB's aggressively short euro and yen vega even though vols are already the lowest they've been since the 2014 summer doldrums. It's ballsy.

 

[MrPippen]

He does take a directional bias - it's just a directional bias on vol rather than spot. VB's aggressively short euro and yen vega even though vols are already the lowest they've been since the 2014 summer doldrums. It's ballsy.

Shorting yen or shorting yen pairs?

 

[Shiny Things]

Shorting yen or shorting yen pairs?

Shorting USDJPY and EURJPY vega, not spot. You can see it in his trade listings, he’s short options in both of those pairs; and short options is a trade that has a “limited upside unlimited downside” risk profile. Even if you actively manage it, short vega is still a tough way to trade.

 

[MrPippen]

Shorting USDJPY and EURJPY vega, not spot. You can see it in his trade listings, he’s short options in both of those pairs; and short options is a trade that has a “limited upside unlimited downside” risk profile. Even if you actively manage it, short vega is still a tough way to trade.

What is vega? Sorry I not finance-trained. Thanks in advance..

 

[Shiny Things]

What is vega? Sorry I not finance-trained. Thanks in advance..

No worries! Vega is your exposure to implied volatility, a factor which goes into the price of an option. very roughly, it's the market's forecast of how volatile the underlying will be over the life of the option.

Generally, if you're long options, you're long vega: if the market wants to buy options because they think the underlying's going to be more volatile (or they just want protection against sudden moves), then implied volatility goes up, and you make money on your vega exposure. Roughly, if you're long options and long vega, you make money when markets are volatile.

Conversely, if you're short options, you're short vega and you'll generally make money if markets are quiet.

The problem is, right now, implied volatility in EUR and JPY options is the lowest it's been since 2014 - so the market needs to be very quiet for you to make any money off a short-vega position in EURUSD or USDJPY.

 

[blurinvestor]

...it cost me in excess of half a million dollars of my own money in research... .

Almost fell off my chair

...it was actually at 3 am in the morning...one cold winter morning in Frankfurt...I was in the toilet when it came as a flash to me....

Almost same experience but mine happened in the toilet at 8.30am Perth, June winter. But it only cost me thousand of hours staring at 4 monitors. Mine is forex retail trade

 

[MrPippen]

There is a reason to it...I started off to find a perfect 100% win and found that it is not possible if you take a punt. No matter what indicator..analysis...you name it...it still boils down to a 50% possibility no matter how accurate or how good you figure your figuring out is...it will ALWAYS come down to a 50% chance.

That was not good enough for me so I had to use a completely out of the box approach...it was actually at 3 am in the morning...one cold winter morning in Frankfurt...I was in the toilet when it came as a flash to me....I scribbled a few scenarios and then I found it... I could "Split the Zero !!!"...and that gave me the direction to go... 30 years later...and lots of experimments along the way...it cost me in excess of half a million dollars of my own money in research to finally come up with the fool proof working model.

Why do a directional bias and have 50% when you can forget that and get 100% ??

I don't know why, but your post jitao reminded me of this:

 

[blurinvestor]

While waiting for London Open, my trading desk was taken over by Gann -

well, I know nothing about Gann's secret.

 

[MrPippen]

A 50% trader talks loudly about things he has totally no knowledge about....lol

What is 50% trader?