Forex Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread 2019

Mr. Wood

Mr. Wood

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Week Ahead: 2021 Starts with a Bang
January 3, 2021 2:19 AM

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Bitcoin has turned parabolic, and it seems nothing can stop it. Price rose above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the December 2017 highs to the December 2018 lows, near the psychological resistance area at 30,000. The next target area of the move is near 36,200, which is the height of the price move during that time period, added to the breakout area at 19,668. There are many reasons for BTC/USD to pull back, but traders should be weary to jumping in front of a runaway train speeding towards you. First support is at 30,000 followed by last weeks highs of 28,377. Also note that the RSI is at its highest levels ever, 93.18, however overbought can always become more overbought! Although Bitcoin is rocketing higher, traders should be reminded how quickly it sold off from 19,680 to 5,920 in January/February 2018 after a similar move in December 2017.
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Mr. Wood

Mr. Wood

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US stocks fall out of bed on first day of year, pushing US Dollar higher
January 5, 2021 3:53 AM

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has been moving aggressively higher since moving November 2nd as price held 0.7000. On December 31st, 2020, AUD/USD formed a shooting star candlestick just above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the highs of September 1st to the lows of November 2nd, near 0.7677. The RSI was also diverging with price. Today, price moved lower, back below the 161.8% Fibonacci level.
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Mr. Wood

Mr. Wood

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OPEC+ cut strengthening crude and correlated currencies
January 6, 2021 4:11 AM

WTI
Keep note of the $49.80/$50.00 area. Above this area bulls are in control, while below, bears take control. Support on the daily is at the December 23rd lows of $46.16.
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USD/CAD
The next level of support isn’t until April 2018 lows near 1.2544. As with the RSI in Crude Oil, it is diverging with price in the daily timeframe. Therefore, USD/CAD could bounce back to 1.2707 before resuming its trend lower.
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USD/NOK
USD/NOK is currently forming a descending wedge on a daily timeframe. If price breaks out to the topside of the wedge, the target is a 100% retracement , which is 8.7636.

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Mr. Wood

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Dems Win Georgia Senate elections
January 7, 2021 3:13 AM

DXY
On a short-term 60-minute timeframe, the DXY has been in a descending wedge since Friday. Today, the index broke out of the top of the wedge and is near its target and horizontal resistance at 89.86. Sellers will be looking to take advantage of this pop to add to their position. The next resistance level is 90.00. Short-term support is at the downward sloping trendline of the wedge near 89.45.

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Mr. Wood

Mr. Wood

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non farm payroll! :s12:
NFP preview: The night is darkest just before the dawn
January 7, 2021 11:26 PM

Unfortunately tomorrow’s highly-anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report is unlikely to show much improvement to the US labor market. Economists are expecting Friday’s jobs data to show that the US economy created just 68K net new jobs and that the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.8%.
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Yesterday’s news that Democrats have secured control of the US Senate by the thinnest of margins suggests we could see additional fiscal stimulus and deficit spending over the next two years. More immediately, a better than expected NFP report could prompt a quick relief rally in the greenback, though any counter-trend move may be short-lived.
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Mr. Wood

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nothing much next week

Mon Jan 11
10:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
10:40pm EUR ECB President Lagarde to moderate an online panel discussion at the One Panel Summit

Tue Jan 12
6:00pm GBP MPC Member Broadbent to deliver a speech titled "Covid and the composition of spending"

Wed Jan 13
5:00pm EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks at the Reuters Next online event
9:30pm USD CPI m/m
USD Core CPI m/m

Thu Jan 14
9:30pm USD Unemployment Claims

Fri Jan 15
1:30am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks at a webinar hosted by Princeton University
9:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
 
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