Forex Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread 2019

Mr. Wood

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US Dollar volatility (aided by Powell) ahead of Biden’s stimulus: DXY, USD/CAD, USD/JPY
January 15, 2021 2:46 AM

US Dollar index began the day near 90.27 and pushed as high as 90.57 midway through the US morning session. The index reversed entering the UK fix and traded as low as 90.16. Later, on Powell’s comments, the index traded down to 90.07! Yesterday, on a 240-minute timeframe, the DXY appeared to be heading higher out of a flag pattern. However, with today’s volatile price action, the DXY may have made a false breakout above the flag. Of course, nothing moves in a straight line, but if price closes below 90.19, it would invalidate the flag patten and DXY could make another push lower towards the psychological 90.00, where bulls will be looking to reenter longs. Today’s highs of 90.57 acts as resistance.

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Mr. Wood

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Mon Jan 18
US holiday Martin Luther King Jr Day
10:00am CNY GDP q/y
CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)

Tue Jan 19

Wed Jan 20
9.30am CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate
11:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BOC Rate Statement


Thu Jan 21
8:30am AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate

8:45pm EUR Monetary Policy Statement
9:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference

Fri Jan 22
1:00am GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at a virtual Citizens' Panel Open Forum hosted by the Bank of England
5:45am NZD CPI q/q
4:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI
4:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Flash Services PMI
 

DevilPlate

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My recent account opening with Zipmex was seamless. Relatively unknown in Sg.

Liquidity maybe a problem if you are looking to buy/sell >5 BTC at one go...otherwise their btc/sgd bid spread looks not bad.
 

Mr. Wood

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Biden plans 'roughly a dozen' Day One executive actions: aide
Jan 16, 2021

Most of the measures are a reversal of policies Trump pursued and do not require congressional action. But Biden will also unveil a long-expected immigration proposal that would provide a pathway to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants that does require congressional action.

That measure, as well as Biden’s recent proposal for $1.9 trillion in spending on COVID vaccinations and economic stimulus, face uphill battles in a Congress narrowly controlled by Biden’s fellow Democrats.

A broader set of Biden’s “Day One” promises will be executed over the following nine days after inauguration, Klain said. Those measures include expanding COVID-19 testing and directing the government to favor American-made goods when it makes purchases
 

Mr. Wood

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Currency pair of the week: USD/CAD
January 18, 2021 11:25 PM

The Bank of Canada (BOC) will meet this week to discuss monetary policy. Canadian rates currently sit as 0.25% and the current pace of the QE program is at least CAD 4 billion per week. Although Canada has recently gone through its own bout of lockdowns, housing and manufacturing data have continued to be strong. However, employment data has been weaker. Expectations are for the BOC to leave policy unchanged, however there is the outside chance they may lower rates below 0.25%.
 

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Janet Yellen’s dovishness can’t push the US Dollar lower: DXY, EUR/USD
January 20, 2021

Listening to her testimony today, she still is singing the same tune. And, she seems fully onboard with Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package presented last week. With more fiscal stimulus, Janet Yellen is hoping to keep the value of the US Dollar low. She has indicated that now is the time to provide relief, not raise taxes. In addition, although she is no longer Fed Chairman, she said “low interest rates are likely for a long time” .

Given the dovishness at Yellen’s confirmation hearing, one may have expected EUR/USD to continue higher. However, price stalled and has formed a bearish candle. If the stimulus is already priced into the market, price may move lower back towards the 1.2050 level and possibly even to the target of the AB=CD pattern near 1.2010. First resistance is back at 1.2165.

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It appears the currency market is looking past the new administration’s talk and wants to see action. Biden can have congress on his side. He can propose a $1.9 trillion economic recovery plan. And Janet Yellen can be as dovish as she wants. But until the FX market see action from the new administration, US Dollar traders may be ambivalent to talk.
 

Mr. Wood

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British Pound at key levels after higher inflation and higher daily coronavirus deaths: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, EUR/GBP
January 21, 2021 5:01 AM

GBP/USD has been in an upward sloping channel since putting in a low of 1.2675 on September 23rd as Brexit deal was priced into the market. The pair reached a post-Brexit high of 1.3703 on January 4th. That level has been tested 4 times since then, including today, and has failed to push higher each time. Today, GBP/USD put in marginal new highs to 1.3719, and quickly reversed, creating a shooting star candlestick formation, which indicates the pair may be ready for a reversal.

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ECB recap: EUR/USD rallies as Lagarde shrugs off euro strength
January 21, 2021 9:52 PM

EUR/USD remains in a longer-term uptrend, with rates finding support near its rising 50-day EMA this week. The pair has now broken out of a small descending channel pattern, suggesting that the established bullish trend may resume after the mid-month pullback.

If the uptrend has indeed resumed, bulls may look to quickly take EUR/USD back to this month’s nearly 3-year highs at 1.2350 pending next week’s US Federal Reserve meeting. Only a break below this week’s low in the 1.2050 area would turn the near-term bias bearish for a potential correction toward the 100-day EMA near 1.1950.
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