Forex/Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread

[Mr.Canberra]

Ur belief in USD strength is that it will go even higher than last year or? Because USD has already been hammered down so much, let's say if it strengthens a lot, also only become back to same as last year?

US Dollar Index 93-95 level. To reach last year's 100 level is wishful thinking. The trump trade has long faded.

USD short is a crowded trade.

btw ur no stop loss strategy, usually from a losing position finally become breakeven, will have the tendency to close immediately.. but like this actually is lose money in the long run..(cos should let it run a bit before and take profit instead of taking profits at breakeven?) how to solve this problem?

How will you lose money unless you are paying swap. But it is fair if you say you are losing opportunity costs due to the time wasted getting stucked.

To close position at breakeven or continue to let it run is subjective. Yes it can continue to run up or may retrace extremely once it touches your price level. This usually happens when you enter at a strong support or resistance level. Positions usually get stucked because entered at a half f*ck price level. Lousy trader mah.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Magic hour going to strike soon!

 

[awful999]

heng ar, EU long from -13x pips to positive pips now

UJ long swee too

 

[havetheveryfun]

How will you lose money unless you are paying swap. But it is fair if you say you are losing opportunity costs due to the time wasted getting stucked.

To close position at breakeven or continue to let it run is subjective. Yes it can continue to run up or may retrace extremely once it touches your price level. This usually happens when you enter at a strong support or resistance level. Positions usually get stucked because entered at a half f*ck price level. Lousy trader mah.

hmm like this say actually no stop loss strategy also requires a lot of discipline and patience...

cos I think most ppl when keep see red n red some more, will quickly want to close it liao .. cant even wait for a week, let alone months

u got try another unorthodox method before ? open 2 accs, 1 for long 1 for short.. hedge against your positions haha.. e.g. like now maybe ur long term is UJ long, but in this volatile market then short a little UJ on the other acc and take the profits quickly.. which side green just close a bit first

 

[rider83]

Waiting for the big night next week!

 

[Mr.Canberra]

heng ar, EU long from -13x pips to positive pips now.

UJ long swee too

You heng lah.

hmm like this say actually no stop loss strategy also requires a lot of discipline and patience...

cos I think most ppl when keep see red n red some more, will quickly want to close it liao .. cant even wait for a week, let alone months

Not just discipline and patience. Most importantly heart must be strong and ample margin to withstand extreme movements. See red is one thing. Can you tahan US$10,000+ unrealised loss rollover month after month?

NO STOP LOSS strategy is not for everyone. Want to play better don't chua sai then blame me for being delusional like some joker!

I am a lousy trader so I discovered that this strategy is the most suitable for me because I am in it for the long term and treat my Forex account as 'savings account'. So far every month the realised gain is at least S$1000 or more. If this strategy is not working then I would have close shop for good already.

Let's say you are a casino gambler can you have positive gains month in and month out? That is why I rather punt Forex 'slot machine' because at least I can control the outcome to a certain extent. I have cleared countless of stucked positions so I definitely know what I am doing and talking about.

As mentioned many times before. Big boys will be too humji to push too far as they are playing with billions not few thousands like retail traders. You just have to sit tight and eventually the price level will make one return trip. Takes time of course.

And to be really honest there is one frigging stubborn position not yet cleared. USD/JPY (0.1 Lot) long position at 117.XX. Swap gained so far 100+ pips. Unrealised loss is about US$1000 less swap gain. Position was opened since 04/01/2017! DCA price is 110.9X with multiple positions.

u got try another unorthodox method before? open 2 accs, 1 for long 1 for short.. hedge against your positions haha.. e.g. like now maybe ur long term is UJ long, but in this volatile market then short a little UJ on the other acc and take the profits quickly.. which side green just close a bit first

This method I have suggested before. Open long and short plus NO STOP LOSS. Sure win hahaha!

Commonly known as hedging. Some brokers allow hedging so you do not need dual accounts.

Waiting for the big night next week!

FOMC interest rate decision.

 

[awful999]

You heng lah.

EU closed at around double top neck line, H4 oversold can always more oversold, dont know Monday where it will go, if base on D1, I think further downside, but H4 oversold, so it may up some before resume bear


DYODD

 

[Mr. Wood]

FOMC interest rate decision.

according to some god and sexpert, alrdy price in.

 

[Mr. Wood]

go casino can money if u r the banker.
fx open big or small both can make money.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Forex Vs. Casino Punting

EU closed at around double top neck line, H4 oversold can always more oversold, dont know Monday where it will go, if base on D1, I think further downside, but H4 oversold, so it may up some before resume bear

Good analysis.

according to some god and sexpert, alrdy price in.

go casino can money if u r the banker.
fx open big or small both can make money.

Casino is really kelong one. If you play Sic Bo and let's say if you bet BIG and SMALL at the same time the probability of winning is only 48.6%. And if a triple appears you lose both bets!

For Forex you bet long and short at the same time. The probability of winning is 50%! The only scenario that you will lose is if there is a flash spike or crash when you do not have ample margin to withstand the stress hahaha.

Two main reasons why traders lose money in Forex.

1) Too much stop loss eats into working capital.
2) Position too large and insufficient margin to withstand stress.

Even if you have plenty of bullets, putting all your eggs in one basket is not good risk management unless you are GOD. Spread out the eggs into different baskets.

PS: Anyway anyone in RWS, MBS, Genting Highlands or cruise ship this weekend?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Singapore Residential Property Price Index

The charts, the statistics & the sale momentum show it.

Singapore Residential Property Price Index
https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/housing-index

According to my lousy TA skills here is my 2 cents.

Currently at almost 140 points this could be a dead cat bounce. A lot of external factors play a part too. The inflection point of gradual Fed interest rate is coming soon. I already see people complaining about rising mortgage interest rates even though it is still quite low by historical standards. The cause of continued pent up demand is cheap credit. I want to see if mortgage rates at 5% will still have more speculation or not.

Uncle Trump is going to bring a lot of volatility into the markets and global economy. If he sits 2 terms that will be 2024 if we want to see some changes in the landscape. That is another discussion altogether.

Economic data is always lagging. Only 2 quarters later then you can tell what is the real current conditions. Those who entered the property market around 100 points during the 2008/2009 GFC locked in good value and this level is also the peak for the year 2000.

130 points (S1) is mid strength support level if no financial crisis happens.
100 points (S2) is a very strong support level if financial crisis happens.

Current Q4 2017 level is 140 points. As the historical chart shows a steep decline is to be expected during each financial crisis.

 

[havetheveryfun]

Mr Li also kena played out by the big boys !

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...hip-lost-hk-1-2-billion-on-a-bad-currency-bet

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Mr Li also kena played out by the big boys !

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...hip-lost-hk-1-2-billion-on-a-bad-currency-bet

he didnt lose extra money leh. it was meant as a hedge lah.

Hedging is a double edge sword. Maintaining a trade weighted basket of currencies will prevent this from happening.

The Forex market is like the ocean. There will be low and high tides. Be liquid and flexible. Go where the water flows.

HKD is also a 'risky' currency to hold because if it depegs from USD then undesired consequences may happen.

 

[havetheveryfun]

Two main reasons why traders lose money in Forex.

1) Too much stop loss eats into working capital.
2) Position too large and insufficient margin to withstand stress.

Even if you have plenty of bullets, putting all your eggs in one basket is not good risk management unless you are GOD. Spread out the eggs into different baskets.

Whats the proper sizing then in general ?

Heard and read that your total contracts should only be maximum 10-15x of your capital.

e.g. if 2k capital, max contract size 2k x 10 or x 15 = 20k -30k

based on this, it would require around 2000 pips to burst your account ?

 

[havetheveryfun]

Hedging is a double edge sword. Maintaining a trade weighted basket of currencies will prevent this from happening.

The Forex market is like the ocean. There will be low and high tides. Be liquid and flexible. Go where the water flows.

HKD is also a 'risky' currency to hold because if it depegs from USD then undesired consequences may happen.

wheres the guy from the post u quoted ?

he didn't lose extra money but he still lost money (either on paper or realized), no ?

unless he also no stop loss like Mr Canberra and hold until USD regains strength !

 

[Mr.Canberra]

BMW Hong Kong Derby 2018

Damn power 平海福星 last 400m (1:38) momentum picked up and last 200m (1:50) spiked up from behind and become champion! Same like Forex sudden spike from no where.

Watch carefully rider conserved his horse's stamina for one good burst!

Moral of the story is be it we are punting or trading. Strategy and perseverance is very important!

 

[havetheveryfun]

His forex losses are offset by the business gains he has. If you read the article, he didn't enter his forex positions because he wanted to speculate. He was concerned that a stronger USD would lower his business profits. Overall, he would had made lesser, but in return I think he had better nights.

wtf are u talking, even if his losses are offset by his business gains, it is still a forex loss.

It's like SMRT always saying they are losing money from rail operations when they are overall still in profits (due to other income from rent and advertising offsetting the losses from rail operations)

 

[Takodoro]

US Dollar Index 93-95 level. To reach last year's 100 level is wishful thinking. The trump trade has long faded.

USD short is a crowded trade.



How will you lose money unless you are paying swap. But it is fair if you say you are losing opportunity costs due to the time wasted getting stucked.

To close position at breakeven or continue to let it run is subjective. Yes it can continue to run up or may retrace extremely once it touches your price level. This usually happens when you enter at a strong support or resistance level. Positions usually get stucked because entered at a half f*ck price level. Lousy trader mah.

No stop loss tend to have relatively high financing cost from my observation. If you are a small time player, this tend to nibble your profit slowly.

Which broker and platform you are using? I am using Oanda web platform. Any other recommendation?

 

[Takodoro]

Good analysis.







Casino is really kelong one. If you play Sic Bo and let's say if you bet BIG and SMALL at the same time the probability of winning is only 48.6%. And if a triple appears you lose both bets!

For Forex you bet long and short at the same time. The probability of winning is 50%! The only scenario that you will lose is if there is a flash spike or crash when you do not have ample margin to withstand the stress hahaha.

Two main reasons why traders lose money in Forex.

1) Too much stop loss eats into working capital.
2) Position too large and insufficient margin to withstand stress.

Even if you have plenty of bullets, putting all your eggs in one basket is not good risk management unless you are GOD. Spread out the eggs into different baskets.

PS: Anyway anyone in RWS, MBS, Genting Highlands or cruise ship this weekend?

I disagree it is 50%. There is still financing cost involved. But I agreed too much stop loss eat into your working capital.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

No stop loss tend to have relatively high financing cost from my observation. If you are a small time player, this tend to nibble your profit slowly.

I disagree it is 50%. There is still financing cost involved. But I agreed too much stop loss eat into your working capital.

Depends whether you are paying or gaining swap.

Which broker and platform you are using? I am using Oanda web platform. Any other recommendation?

I am using both P*****p and P*********e.

Not recommending any particular platforms to use but just answering your questions. Sensitive question because snake oil selling suspicions will arise.