Forex Tradingwithrayner

[tradingwithrayner]

As a newbie , u recommend what kind of set up ? Hardware set ups . Any recommendation on habits that a trader need to cultivate ? Like trade during 5am to 6am etc . I have heard alot weird habits and seen my bro waking up at like 4am to trade . I guess his 3min burnt up in a short span .

For hardware, you don't really need any super fast computers. A decent one will do and prefably with a large screen to see charts better.

As for the time to trade, i will cover that in a later post.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

shorted eur/usd at 1.3074

now gain of about 50 pips.

i'm trading daily chart.... trend reversal?

target price is below key support of 1.30

what's your view on the current eur/usd trend?

Ok here's my view on the EURUSD.

On the daily chart, we see a resistance zone around the 1.3120 area. Also there's a bearish reversal pattern at that zone. After which price starts to consolidate.

Drilling down to the 4hr, i see a head and shoulders pattern with neckline at the 1.3000 level. Should we see a strong close below it, we can see price tanking further down towards the 1.2750 level.

Thus i would tighten up my stops when price approach the psychological 1.3000 level.

No 2 traders trade the same way, thus your exit plan and mine will be entirely different based on our personalities.

If you're short now, stops would logically be above the high of the bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart.

By the way i'm using newyork close for my charts.

 

[Profee]

As a newbie , u recommend what kind of set up ? Hardware set ups . Any recommendation on habits that a trader need to cultivate ? Like trade during 5am to 6am etc . I have heard alot weird habits and seen my bro waking up at like 4am to trade . I guess his 3min burnt up in a short span .

Probably your bro wake up early in the morning just to see the daily close. I prefer london open and close. I just go sleep after 12am-1am . If there's any event risk during my sleeping hours, e.g. FOMC usually @ 2am, I just set my stop to breakeven or having a setup to hedge my position or close position.

Hudge miss in german pmi pushing euro lower. Probably risk off 2night. With China and Europe pmi miss expectation. XD

S&P500 and USD/JPY look interesting. XD Waiting for S&P to break mar low or USD/JPY to break 100. I think it going to be a big move once broken.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

The different sessions of the FX market

We know the FX market is 24hrs a day from Monday to Friday. Do we trade 24 hours then, obviously not. Thus the next question is which sessions are best to trade?

Well to answer the previous question you need to ask yourself what kind of trader you are. If you're a swing trader or position trader then you'd probably trade of the higher timeframes thus the sessions to trade don't really matter.

However if you're a day trader, then here are some information on which sessions are best to trade.

ASIAN - It's a pretty quiet and the markets are usually range bound here. Spreads are usually wider due to lower liquidity as US is night and EUROPEANS are still sleeping. The more active pairs would be the JPY denominated ones. Not ideal to trade but it's good to know how the pairs are moving in the Asian session.

LONDON - Here is where things start to shake up. It starts at 3 or 4pm and close at 12 or 1am depending on DST. Nonetheless you should be in the markets during the first 2 hours of london session as there's usually an influx of volume coming in. You will see price start breaking support resistance levels that were created in the asian session.
After the first 2 hours, the market will tend to take a breather. Asian is closed and the europeans folks are probably having lunch. Thus markets tend to be more range bound during these period till around 8pm.

USA - At around 8 or so, that's when the US market is getting ready to open. The cash market will open at 930pm thus around 8pm you would see some action coming up. You defintely want to be trading from 8pm till london close as that's where the bulk of volatility will be!

Thus in short the best times to trade would be from 3pm till 12am.

In between from 5-8pm the market will be little quiet (but not as quiet as asian session) and when the US opens, the fun begins.

 

[vae_victis]

Nice to see fellow trader with similar trading mindset.

+1 like!

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Nice to see fellow trader with similar trading mindset.

+1 like!

Cheeeers!

 

[vae_victis]

CHF/JPY trade

Not sure if you trade this way, lets share and improve our trading!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Lets have some fun with some analysis.

General bias = long.
Clear rejection of lower price at 61 Fib level (140.5)
Higher volume tick bars, indicating high order flow, high activity. Price tested 61 Fib level but was rejected with increased volume. What does this mean? There are buyers at the price rejection level.

Now think about why? I always like to analyse by thinking what would I do if I am the institutional investor.

1) I want to trade long
2) I want to trade long but not at high prices
3) Thus I buy at lower prices (retracement levels)
4) But I do not want to cause a large market move, so I buy in spurts. (therefore you see small rises with decreasing volume because the smart money is not buying anymore at a higher price)
5) I'll keep buying at lower price.

Look at the charts for CHFJPY at shorter time intervals, H4/H1 and you can see the confluence of fib, volume, PA.

Now, I am not a believe of fundamentals or trading the news. But the truth is price moves because of news. So now the smart money are positioning themselves to mark up prices prior to taking profits. Look what is in the near horizon, BOJ release. What an opportunity to mark up price. Do news drive the price or do smart money order flow drive the price? Think about it.

Now when retail traders hear of the news and see price marking up, they join in the buying climax, but at a poorer price. When SM takes profit at top, you will see another price retracement, this time the herd gets squeezed again. This is why we see retracements...consolidation..and markup in the markets.

** This is just some fun thinking about the future, which is as near as tmr** I'm just confident of my position with CHF/JPY at this moment, but it is just speculation. As the trade goes on, such analysis strengthens my initial trade.

What do you guys think?

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Hey thanks for posting!

Least now i got some charts to work with, ha.

Ok regarding that trade analysis, i have nothing to disagree with. But perhaps one thing you may want to take into consideration is the relative strength.

You know the JPY is very weak, pull up the chart and you can see the JPY depreciating since last Nov if i remember correctly. Thus the next question would be, which pair do i want to long against the JPY? The strongest one of course.

If you ask me, right now the USD and GBP are the 2 most strongest pair and they're just hovering below the resistance zone on both the 4hr and daily timeframe.

I will look to long should price close above the resistance level. I believe there's a clusters of stop above thus i expect a strong reaction above the resistance zone.

If i were to long the CHFJPY trade, i would be looking at the 96.500 level for price action confirmation.

Cheers!

 

[supratentorium]

Just some "broad stroke" observations
How does "volume" help? What does "volume" mean?

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Happy labour day!

Yoyo, how's everyone doing!

Hope you guys are having a good break right now.

Will resume posting soon once I finish up with my personal commitments.

 

[vae_victis]

Just some "broad stroke" observations
How does "volume" help? What does "volume" mean?

Volume is a measure of activity, which equates to orderflow. Higher volume = higher number of orders flowing within price region.

 

[___jeff]

good thread! great effort from the TS!

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Some pairs i'm looking at

USDJPY Daily - Price trapped within the 100 and 97.00 levels. I would look to long at the 97.00 and short at the 100.00 given the appropriate candlestick patterns at those levels.

If you look at the other JPY pairs, most are telling a similar story. They are all ranging.

EURUSD 4hr - Price is ranging between the 1.3200 and 1.2960 level. Thus we follow the adage buy low and sell high!

AUDUSD 4hr - Given recent weakness on the Chinese data, we see a depreciation of the Aussie dollar as their exports rely heavily from China. Looking for shorts around the 1.0350 level.

These are some pairs I'm looking at the coming week!

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Realised I can post links already, nonetheless some visual aid on the pairs I was talking earlier.

 

[wackocraz]

nice sharing TS. wondering, is there a site or forum/group where sg fxtraders gather and share ideas and market talk?

 

[tradingwithrayner]

nice sharing TS. wondering, is there a site or forum/group where sg fxtraders gather and share ideas and market talk?

I'm not sure about that.

Perhaps this thread could be a start of something?

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Chart Talk 08-05-13

The recent rate cut has cause the Australian dollar to drop.

Also the 1.0150 is a support area I will be looking at.

I will be looking for bullish price action before going long.

A support area at the 151.00 level.

I will look for bullish price action to go long on this pair.

The key support level has broken as we saw price close below it strongly.

Traders can sell on rally and next support level is at parity.

However if price closes back strongly into the trading range, we have a bear trap! Then I would look to get long.

 

[Shiny Things]

So you recommend going long AUDUSD but short AUDCAD. Why not just sell USDCAD?

 

[supratentorium]

So you recommend going long AUDUSD but short AUDCAD. Why not just sell USDCAD?

I don't think he's recommending to be frank long AUDUSD and frank short AUDCAD. He's just watching those levels and looking for opportunities.

That being said, lets say i have a nice stoploss and a logical profit target based on looking at market structure to long AUDUSD and short AUDCAD. I look at the USDCAD chart and I may not find a trade as i may not be able to find a trade with an acceptable risk reward ratio based on stop loss placement and logical profit targets because of the structure.

 

[wackocraz]

Nice to see fellow trader with similar trading mindset.

+1 like!

hi victis. are u a full time trader, as in trade for a living?