Forex Tradingwithrayner

[shawnwong]

Got stopped out yesterday at 1.5080. Suddenly cable became very bullish

Same here but I trade fiber instead. USD weakness across both currency. Anyway, if you notice, the trade pattern of cable pretty close to fiber at times. Just that the latter more volatile since it is the most traded pair.

Since you set your stop and keep your MM sound, everything should be fine.

 

[shawnwong]

Came up with a little vbscript to help you calculate your lot size for better MM. It is based on mini lot and only applicable to currency pair where the quote currency is USD, example EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc

Extract the following within the ++++++ and save it under a file say, mm.vbs

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wscript.Echo "Enter Account(S$):"
Account = WScript.StdIn.ReadLine

Wscript.Echo "Enter Risk %(not more than 2%):"
Risk = WScript.StdIn.ReadLine

Wscript.Echo "Enter Stop Loss(pips):"
Stop_Loss = WScript.StdIn.ReadLine

Wscript.Echo "Enter Exchange Rate(USD/SGD):"
Exchange_Rate = WScript.StdIn.ReadLine

lot_size = ((Risk/100) * (Account/Exchange_Rate)) / Stop_Loss

Wscript.Echo "Lot Size(mini lot) = " & lot_size
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To execute, open a command prompt and type and enter cscript mm.vbs

You will be asked to enter your trading account (in Sing dollar), the amount you wanna risk(not more than 2%, enter without %), your stop loss (how many pips), and the exchange rate between USD and Sing dollar.

For example with a account of S$7000, risking 2%, with a stop loss of 40 pips and a usd/sgd exchange rate of 1.26, you mini lot size is ~2.8 ...

 

[Lasogette]

AUD discussions

Anyone do carry trading for AUD. Care to do some discussions on AUD/USD.

This is a weekly chart of aud/usd from investing.com. current price is at an area which has been supported for the past 3 years. However the trend has currently been down for the past 4 weeks. This area will be interesting to watch if it breaks (0.9387). Any inputs guys.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Anyone do carry trading for AUD. Care to do some discussions on AUD/USD.

This is a weekly chart of aud/usd from investing.com. current price is at an area which has been supported for the past 3 years. However the trend has currently been down for the past 4 weeks. This area will be interesting to watch if it breaks (0.9387). Any inputs guys.

That support zone which you highlighted is definitely an area of interest.
Most longer term traders would have spotted it and would be cautious going short into such strong area.

My own bias for the longer term outlook is anticipating a reversal at that zone. I belief that level will hold and we should see higher prices in the coming weeks. Reason being is that i believe the negativity from china has been priced in and unless china drops a "bomb" in the coming days which lead to further deterioration of the AUDUSD.

Nonetheless nothing is certain in trading, thus that's what our stoploss is for.

 

[OnlyHuman]

Anyone do carry trading for AUD. Care to do some discussions on AUD/USD.

This is a weekly chart of aud/usd from investing.com. current price is at an area which has been supported for the past 3 years. However the trend has currently been down for the past 4 weeks. This area will be interesting to watch if it breaks (0.9387). Any inputs guys.

Ever Since it broke 1.01510, it has been pretty bearish. Any retracement will be seen as an opportunity to push for lower low. Unless we see a very strong rebound back to high side.

Well, very difficult to say, coz its like jig saw puzzle, just that every piece of puzzle keep on changing, quote from jim rogers. haha.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Weekly analysis 02-06-13

 

[supratentorium]

Anyone do carry trading for AUD. Care to do some discussions on AUD/USD.

This is a weekly chart of aud/usd from investing.com. current price is at an area which has been supported for the past 3 years. However the trend has currently been down for the past 4 weeks. This area will be interesting to watch if it breaks (0.9387). Any inputs guys.

That level you marked out. It looks like where all the retail stops are. Just need a little push and many will fall off the cliff. Just my individual opinion.

 

[shawnwong]

Take those stop/target levels (or support / resistance) just as a guide ...

You see it, everyone else sees it as well. Contract placed at these levels are easier wipe out. Just remember, you r in the ocean full of sharks ...

 

[Lasogette]

Thanks for all the input guys. Great listening to different opinions

 

[Profee]

USD/CAD

daily

4hr

Look to short around 23.6fib-1.0350. Soft target 38.2 follow by 50.0. Or a breakout trade below 38.2.

I think price will retest the 2010-13 trendline after reaching 50.0 fib.

Just my 2cents.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

I like the USDCAD trading idea. For me the reasons for shorting are

1) We just had a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

2) Looking at the 4hr we see that the H&S pattern has already broken the neckline

3) Fundamental reason from referring to the CFTC report, i see extreme buying on the CAD by the commercials and extreme selling of the USD.

Given all these confluence lining up, i will look to short as well.

I'm thinking of doing a video to further illustrate my points.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Chart talk 05-06-13

We have resistance around the 1.4680 level.

Looking for a bearish reversal pattern before shorting.

We have resistance around the 0.8585 level.

Looking for a bearish reversal pattern before shorting.

 

[Profee]

USD/CAD update

Price moves up too high and kinda choppy. Price is supported by 23.6fib and channel top. If price moves higher, look for a test of 1.038 and 1.042.

 

[HuatKway]

Hi TS,

Very enlightening post. However :

So after all these 3 facts, to those who wants to take up forex as a hobby or to earn some part time income, my advice is to stay far far away!

Any reason why for the above?

Also Based on your post, you are more of a TA then going on fundamentals right? How would you comment on TA and FA on forex itself vs stocks?

 

[MuppeJack]

1) Leverage - You see brokers offering leverage like nobody's business. The highest i saw was 1 to 400! Seriously, if anyone goes with the broker that offers the highest leverage, you're better of parking your money in the bank.
Assuming you have $1000 and you buy $400000 worth of EURUSD currency. And assuming EURUSD average a 1% movement a day. Thus 1% of $400000 = $4000
If that 1% were to go against you, your account is wiped out and you're down NEGATIVE $3000. So much so for leverage huh!
So tell me, does excessive leverage seem all that exciting now?


3) Biggest casino in the world - Yes that's right! The forex market is the biggest casino in the world. And you can open up an account for as little as $100. Wait, in fact it's even more convinient then going to a casino. At a click of a mouse, you can buy or sell! Wow, what better way to lose your money at the comfort of your home!
You're challenging against the smartest, most hardworking people who have access to deeper pockets then both you and i can imagine

So after all these 3 facts, to those who wants to take up forex as a hobby or to earn some part time income, my advice is to stay far far away!

My opinions differ from these 2 points of yours.

1) As long as you know exactly what is leverage and how to utilize it with proper risk management it is highly favorable to retail traders. I'd always go with the highest leverage option the broker offers.

3) You ain't challenging with the most hardworking people. Trading is more about pyschological, and this usually means hardwork doesn't reap results in trading. Many studied, experimented numerous strategies but still fail. It's all about emotion, once you found the key, you just need an edge in the market to be winner traders.

Just my own personal opinions.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

My opinions differ from these 2 points of yours.

1) As long as you know exactly what is leverage and how to utilize it with proper risk management it is highly favorable to retail traders. I'd always go with the highest leverage option the broker offers.

3) You ain't challenging with the most hardworking people. Trading is more about pyschological, and this usually means hardwork doesn't reap results in trading. Many studied, experimented numerous strategies but still fail. It's all about emotion, once you found the key, you just need an edge in the market to be winner traders.

Just my own personal opinions.

Thanks for sharing!

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Hi TS,

Very enlightening post. However :

So after all these 3 facts, to those who wants to take up forex as a hobby or to earn some part time income, my advice is to stay far far away!

Any reason why for the above?

Also Based on your post, you are more of a TA then going on fundamentals right? How would you comment on TA and FA on forex itself vs stocks?

Hobbies cost you money in the long run. E.g. when you play golf, it takes up time effort to go have a game of golf. Will you take it to the professional level and compete in PGA tours? Unlikely, that's why it's a hobby.

If you were to take trading as a hobby, would you take it to a professional level? Adhering to your own trading plan stops exits etc. Unlikely. And in the long run, it cost you money.

If you're looking for hobbies, there are others out there that doesn't cost you alot of money. Go find something else.

Trading is a serious business. It involves time effort and countless hours of learning. Just like a normal business out there, would you expect it to survive if you treat your business as a hobby? When you feel like it you open your shop for business, when you're tired perhaps you take a half day off from it. I'm sure you wouldn't do that to your own business thus you won't do that to your trading if you treat it like a business.

I would say i trade TA 80% and 20% FA. I do keep abreast of the fundamentals going on and i pay attention to the CFTC reports that comes out on a weekly basis.

I favour trades that have both TA and FA that are in sync.

 

[Lasogette]

Any dollar yen long? Having a hammar at the 95.xx level

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Weekly analysis 09-06-13

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Any dollar yen long? Having a hammar at the 95.xx level

I prefer the CADJPY over the USDJPY.

Reason being it is relatively stronger and commercials are net long the CAD.