Forex Tradingwithrayner

[Profee]

USD/CAD played quite well, looking to re-enter short.

I am still holding 1/2 of my USD/JPY long. I am watching this pair, as it's still bearish.

Aussie is interesting, holding at major support 0.9400 with rsi divergence. I have a small long position, waiting for signal to build up my position.

 

[Profee]

AUD/USD update

Aussie long didn't play out well. My small long got taken out. Price choose to break lower, eyeing for 50% Fib now.

I have closed my USD/JPY long yesterday and entered short this morning as BOJ disappoints. Taken 1st 1/2 @ 97.

 

[supratentorium]

AUD/USD update

Aussie long didn't play out well. My small long got taken out. Price choose to break lower, eyeing for 50% Fib now.

I look at your Aussie charts and all I see in a downtrend.
Where is a support at 0.9400?

 

[Profee]

I look at your Aussie charts and all I see in a downtrend.
Where is a support at 0.9400?

XD Because i didn't show. You look at a weekly or monthly, you will see 0.94 acted as resistance few times and oct 2011 low.

Update
Price traded above 0.94 again. I don't think price going to close below .94 2day. Price are trading within the falling wedge, supported by the trendline of 30/31 May to 2day low. Watch out for bullish breakout.

 

[supratentorium]

XD Because i didn't show. You look at a weekly or monthly, you will see 0.94 acted as resistance few times and oct 2011 low.

Update
Price traded above 0.94 again. I don't think price going to close below .94 2day. Price are trading within the falling wedge, supported by the trendline of 30/31 May to 2day low. Watch out for bullish breakout.

I know you are using some large timeframe and then going into smaller timeframe. Using the weekly and then going into the 4 hourly and daily chart is akin to using a 60 minute chart and going into 2 minute and the 12 minute chart.

Can i ask why don't you stay on the higher timeframe and trade it for what it is since you are leaning on some higher timeframe level?

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Hey Profee!

Like what supratentorium has said.

We know the AUD is in a massive downtrend and you have support coming in at the 0.94 area. However it would be wise to look for a reversal pattern on the higher timeframes rather than on the lower timeframe.

No doubt you will have a larger stops on the higher timeframe, but the chances of a reversal occuring would be higher. E.g. a bullish pinbar at 0.94 on the weekly chart.

We need sometime for this pair to play out and watch if that level holds up.

 

[Profee]

I know you are using some large timeframe and then going into smaller timeframe. Using the weekly and then going into the 4 hourly and daily chart is akin to using a 60 minute chart and going into 2 minute and the 12 minute chart.

Can i ask why don't you stay on the higher timeframe and trade it for what it is since you are leaning on some higher timeframe level?

If i only stay on weekly or daily, I going to miss what is happening in the 4hr chart. 4hr chart is an early signal that telling you what is going on. Of course daily close is stronger.

Hey Profee!

Like what supratentorium has said.

We know the AUD is in a massive downtrend and you have support coming in at the 0.94 area. However it would be wise to look for a reversal pattern on the higher timeframes rather than on the lower timeframe.

No doubt you will have a larger stops on the higher timeframe, but the chances of a reversal occuring would be higher. E.g. a bullish pinbar at 0.94 on the weekly chart.

We need sometime for this pair to play out and watch if that level holds up.

Yeah you are right and I get your point. Higher TF close is stronger than lower TF close. I prefer using smaller TF like 4hr as an early signal that market might change. Of course one shouldn't just blindly trade with signal from 4hr TF. Daily & Weekly TF is like a map, telling where the key levels are. It's all depends on how one trades.
I might jump into an early signal but I won't holding it thinking that signal might be right, I react how the market reacts. Or open a small size and slowly build up my position. That is how i trade XD

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Okay i'm glad you have a plan thought out.

Cheers!

 

[supratentorium]

Thanks for your reply.

Rayner nailed one of the perils of doing that. Looking at the "twitch" on a smaller time frame leaning on some big timeframe level looking for confirmation thinking you can front run everyone.
If you are leaning on some bigger level, then your stop is bigger too. 1 ATR on the weekly timeframe is 180-250 ticks.

Just my 2 cents

 

[Profee]

Price has reach supply level, need to see AUD/USD to take out .9550 and creates higher low to confirm price is going for correction. Watch out for tmr unemployment rate.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Weekly analysis 15-06-13

 

[Skinny_bastard]

whats your thoughts on Sonic R system?

 

[tradingwithrayner]

whats your thoughts on Sonic R system?

I've not traded it so i can't comment on it.

Perhaps the folks at forexfactory could give you a better idea.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Chart talk 19-06-13

Do we have a potential double top in the making?

Or will price break through the high?

If price were to formed a double top, i will wait for break of neckline before shorting.

The support level is coming around the 147.00 area.

I will go long if a bullish price action develops.

Also on the H4 there is consolidation going on, a breakout to the upside could trigger a nice long entry.

 

[maliciousmonster]

Hi guys, I would like to ask if forex trading is worth it with a day job?

I'm working in an MNC in their forex division but I'm a novice in forex (ironically). Since I'm exposed to forex info everyday at work, I suppose I could get some capital gains as a forex trader after work.

My question is, is it even worth the time to trade forex within that 4 hr period after work? (say I reach home at 7pm and stop at 11pm). Not to mention I may be out for dinners or hangout after work occasionally.

What's worth to me is at least >1k+ capital gain in a month using roughly 40 hrs per month.

If not, I would rather be better off dumping my cash in stocks which I will just hold.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Weekly analysis 23-06-13

 

[supratentorium]

Hi guys, I would like to ask if forex trading is worth it with a day job?

I'm working in an MNC in their forex division but I'm a novice in forex (ironically). Since I'm exposed to forex info everyday at work, I suppose I could get some capital gains as a forex trader after work.

My question is, is it even worth the time to trade forex within that 4 hr period after work? (say I reach home at 7pm and stop at 11pm). Not to mention I may be out for dinners or hangout after work occasionally.

What's worth to me is at least >1k+ capital gain in a month using roughly 40 hrs per month.

If not, I would rather be better off dumping my cash in stocks which I will just hold.

Novice.. to trading or to forex?
Of course it's possible to day trade those 4 hours. That's prime trading time. But the question is can you make money.

Do some homework? Open up some of your favourite currency pairs, look at that window of opportunity you have. Do you see any trading opportunities? That should answer the question of whether you should just watch TV, go out for dinner, get some sleep or it's worth your time to sit in front of the computer. To get good at something, 10,000 hours? More? I don't think it fits your requirement of 40 hours per month. Divide 10,000 hours by 40 hours, gosh it's going to take you 250 months to get good.

The market doesn't care whether you want 50 dollars or 1K from it. The amount of returns or losses you get depends on how much risk you are willing to take. If i have 100,000 dollar and risk 1% for a trade and get 3% back, i can trade once a month and make 3K or lose 1K.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Chart talk 26-06-13

Interim support at the 1.5350

A break of this area should see price heading lower.

Would look for shorts if price does break that area.

A potential head and shoulders is forming up.

A break above the 98.500 would invalidate the pattern.

I am anticipating a break above it actually.

Look for retracement back towards the 1.0400 for long opportunity.

 

[revered_man]

Hey Rayner. Nice job with the clean charts focusing purely on PA. Just a quick question. Do you have an active myfxbook account?

Thanks.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Hey Rayner. Nice job with the clean charts focusing purely on PA. Just a quick question. Do you have an active myfxbook account?

Thanks.

Here you go
Day trade System | Myfxbook