Forex Tradingwithrayner

[guowei]

Yeah I totally agree 75% of margin is very risky. But it works for me so far.

I am a pure TA person haha. So fundamentals I don't really take note, unless its NFP or interest rates decisions.

Wasted sia. Now NZDUSD up 50 pips liao

haha,its ok. if we can see the future, we all rich liao. i bid my time where my TA and fundaments match then i enter with my 10% margin haha. so far earn 15% return this year. not alot but i can sleep at night

 

[revered_man]

Honestly, i do not think that there is a right or wrong MM. I'm very curious as to what other people's MM is. For me I use variable risk per trade depending on the PA setup.

How long have you guys been trading? Received any margin call before?

 

[tradingwithrayner]

MM is definitely a subject worth discussing.

I sustained 8 losses in a row and my account is still positive.

If i had risked 10% a trade, chances are i'm in the red and unlikely to ever recover.

Draw downs will occur, but the question is how are you going to manage it?

 

[act333]

Might want to consider a long of AUDNZD with a TP of 1.19 and SL of 1.185. 4hr charts say upside!

Edit: also consider long AUDUSD if risk appetite bigger. TP at 0.93-0.935 with SL at 0.905

Closed 1/2 my NZDUSD for +100 liao

Edit: @reveredman

I got 2 margin calls before when learning to trade. It was $50 accounts so not too bad pocket-wise. I only started to trade with $3k savings from my army pay last week haha. Still learning from the folks at FF

 

[revered_man]

Might want to consider a long of AUDNZD with a target of 1.19. 4hr charts say upside!

Edit: also consider long AUDUSD if risk appetite bigger.
Closed 1/2 my NZDUSD for +100 liao

Edit: @reveredman

I got 2 margin calls before when learning to trade. It was $50 accounts so not too bad pocket-wise. I only started to trade with $3k savings from my army pay last week haha. Still learning from the folks at FF

Thanks for sharing.

Yeah, FF is a great website. Do you have any particular favourite threads there? Mine would be J16 and fail better.

Btw, have you come across the thread "technical analysis fallacy" over at FF? Any comments on that thread?

 

[act333]

These are really useful threads! Recommended to read the highlighted posts.

Christopher's Corner - Christopher's Corner @ Forex Factory
The James16 Chart Thread - james16 Chart Thread @ Forex Factory
The WoRmHoLe - The WoRmHoLe @ Forex Factory
Trade what you see NOT what you expect - Trade what you see NOT what you expect @ Forex Factory

Ya I came across the technical analysis thread. My main takeaway is that indicators are lagging and not really useful. Price action, be it in the form of candles or S/R levels, are more useful in trading. Ichimoku clouds and Elliott Waves too - these 2 I use in my trading decisions.

 

[chopra]

any long term view on USD?

 

[act333]

any long term view on USD?

nope. i cant help on that haha. my fundies knowledge really cmi.

 

[revered_man]

These are really useful threads! Recommended to read the highlighted posts.

Christopher's Corner - Christopher's Corner @ Forex Factory
The James16 Chart Thread - james16 Chart Thread @ Forex Factory
The WoRmHoLe - The WoRmHoLe @ Forex Factory
Trade what you see NOT what you expect - Trade what you see NOT what you expect @ Forex Factory

Ya I came across the technical analysis thread. My main takeaway is that indicators are lagging and not really useful. Price action, be it in the form of candles or S/R levels, are more useful in trading. Ichimoku clouds and Elliott Waves too - these 2 I use in my trading decisions.

Nice SIC. Since you utilise ichimoku in your trading, you can go to youtube and type chaostrader63. He is an advocate of ichimoku strategy and he used it to win a competition. You can look into it.

With regards to the TAF thread, it is full of good and cryptic information. But I cant seem to digest the main techniques used by the author. Also, there are no current examples of trading shown in the thread to help me get an idea of the trading methodology.

 

[squan123]

there is no trading methodology so to speak. He scales in and out of positions according to fundies and price action, starting with very small entries. This way we will be able to catch a big move with a sizeable position, yet with the ability to reverse an original trade gone wrong with a minimal loss. IMO it's not very applicable to most retail traders since we leverage way too much. It can be very profitable but without vast experience like his, many of us will be susceptible to an account busting move at some point in time.

Having said that, I have learnt much from him and I urge everyone to have a look at his thread.

 

[archcherub]

now looking hard at aud/usd
usd/jpy
eur/jpy
and eur/usd.....


only quietly confident to long aud/usd...

 

[revered_man]

there is no trading methodology so to speak. He scales in and out of positions according to fundies and price action, starting with very small entries. This way we will be able to catch a big move with a sizeable position, yet with the ability to reverse an original trade gone wrong with a minimal loss. IMO it's not very applicable to most retail traders since we leverage way too much. It can be very profitable but without vast experience like his, many of us will be susceptible to an account busting move at some point in time.

Having said that, I have learnt much from him and I urge everyone to have a look at his thread.

Appreciate your views.

Btw I hope I dont sound like someone who refuses to do his homework, but can you pls tell me how small is his first entry?

I actually like his approach to trading. One of which is refusing to take a loss and trying to do damage control.

Great pips to you!

 

[squan123]

it has been a long while since I read the thread. I have no idea how big his account is, nor the size of his 'scouts'. I can't remember if he did mention it. But it does have some aspect of geometric martingaling which scared the hell out of me when I tried trading against the market flow, but I guess the reason was because of overleveraging - I didn't have enough 'firepower' to average down my losing positions to a winning one.

IIRC my first entry was 10c/pip on a 4-digit account. Can't remember why I chose that, may be the influence of the author himself or a member of the thread, or purely an arbitrary amount I decided on.

One thing for sure if you trade this way: all eyes on your positions, not even leaving the screens to relieve yourself, especially when in the red!

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Hope everyone is doing fine.

Gosh the USD spike caught most traders with their pants down.

Will cover that in my weekly analysis later on.

And also could someone point to me the TAF thread? Was browsing through the few sic earlier and none of them could make out TAF?

Thanks!

 

[revered_man]

it has been a long while since I read the thread. I have no idea how big his account is, nor the size of his 'scouts'. I can't remember if he did mention it. But it does have some aspect of geometric martingaling which scared the hell out of me when I tried trading against the market flow, but I guess the reason was because of overleveraging - I didn't have enough 'firepower' to average down my losing positions to a winning one.

IIRC my first entry was 10c/pip on a 4-digit account. Can't remember why I chose that, may be the influence of the author himself or a member of the thread, or purely an arbitrary amount I decided on.

One thing for sure if you trade this way: all eyes on your positions, not even leaving the screens to relieve yourself, especially when in the red!

Yeah, I guess he did not mentioned the size of his scouts. I thought I missed something over at the thread with respect to the size of the entries.

I guess that explains why the method is risky as it applies martingale as an MM. Also, I do not think it suits retail traders who have full-time jobs as we do not have the luxury of time to monitor the screens.

IIRC, the author did mention that he was always glued to the screen trying to do damage control and it took a toll on his health.

Hey Rayner, the thread that you are looking for is "technical analysis fallacy" aka TAF.

 

[tradingwithrayner]

Ok thank you!

 

[Balian]

good luck to those going long on AUD

 

[neanea]

good luck to those going long on AUD

Why?????????

 

[Balian]

Why?????????

1) The view that AUD is a safe haven currency is shifting as the U.S economy is 'seemingly' recovering

2) Aus biggest export partner China is not doing as well as previous years

3) General 'market view' when AUD was trading at 1-1.05 USD was that AUD is overvalued by around 20%

 

[neanea]

1) The view that AUD is a safe haven currency is shifting as the U.S economy is 'seemingly' recovering

2) Aus biggest export partner China is not doing as well as previous years

3) General 'market view' when AUD was trading at 1-1.05 USD was that AUD is overvalued by around 20%

Where did you read aud is over value by 20%?